Betting Guide for UFC Fight Night on 9/19/20
The UFC has gifted us a monster 15-fight card this weekend, headlined by a big rivalry match between Colby Covington and Tyron Woodley. We also get another look at the always-game Donald Cerrone looking to snap out of a four-fight losing streak, and a third fight of the summer for red-hot prospect Khamzat Chimaev.
This card has it all from big favorites to fights with both fighters priced on the same side of even, and FanDuel Sportsbook has plenty of odds: outright winners, method of victory, and more.
Let's take a look at the best bets to make.
Colby Covington (-375) vs. Tyron Woodley (+285)
This is a long-overdue matchup, and we've seen the two fighters go in opposite directions since the beginning of this rivalry. Covington lost by fifth-round TKO in a title fight against Kamaru Usman in his last outing, ending his seven-fight win streak. Woodley also lost to Usman by decision last year to forfeit his title and followed that up with a decision loss to Gilbert Burns in May.
The theme in those Woodley losses was his lack of action, as he threw averaged just 31 significant strikes landed over the two bouts. He also has not landed a takedown in four-straight fights.
Covington, on the other hand, averaged a whopping 161 significant strikes landed over his past two fights. Over his past four fights, that number still sits very high at 127.25. His 58 takedowns also rank third all-time among all UFC welterweights.
Woodley has said that he will finally let his hands go in this fight, but he has said that before. The pace will likely be dictated by Covington in this one, but keep in mind that his past five wins have all come via decision and Woodley has never been finished in the UFC. At -375, Covington can be used in parlays, alongside someone like Chimaev (-420). For better odds on a straight bet, Covington to win by points can be had at -145.
Kevin Holland (-265) vs. Darren Stewart (+210)
This will be Kevin Holland's third fight of the year, but actually his sixth fight that he has been booked for. A combination of Holland and his opponents having to drop out has led to his schedule being changed quite a bit. He will have a three-inch height and a seven-inch reach advantage in this one, but he is more of a lanky fighter compared to the thicker Stewart. Holland has openly planned to drop down to the welterweight division but continues to fight at middleweight, despite weighing in under 184 pounds for each of his past three fights.
Darren Stewart has fought twice this year, picking up a first-round submission victory of Maki Pitolo in August, after dropping a decision to Bartosz Fabinski in an oddly-rescheduled fight at the beginning of this pandemic.
Holland comes into this fight with a 5-2 UFC record, but only one of those wins came against a fighter with a winning UFC record. Stewart is rightfully an underdog in this fight, but the line should be much closer, putting the value on Stewart to win at +210.
Journey Newson (-152) vs. Randy Costa (+124)
Each of these fighters is sitting at 1-1 in the UFC, coming off of a pair of first-round TKO victories in their most recent fights. Their losses, however, tell two different stories. Randy Costa was submitted in the second round by Brandon Davis, who has since been released from the UFC after fighting to a 2-4 record. Journey Newson's loss on the other hand came via decision to Ricardo Ramos, who currently owns a 5-2 UFC record.
Newson landed 38 significant strikes in that fight while giving up 40 to Ramos. What is alarming is the three takedowns that he allowed, but that is less likely to be an issue in this fight, as Costa has yet to attempt a takedown in the UFC.
At 5'5" and giving up six inches in reach, Newson's size will be a concern in most of his UFC fights, including this one. But with 11 fights to his name, compared to just six for Costa, and proving himself against tougher competition, Newson appears to have the edge in this matchup. At -152, his odds are not long enough that anyone should be scared away from taking the favorite in this fight.