Betting Guide for UFC Fight Night on 8/1/20
This will be the end of the UFC's 10-event run over the past two months before they take a break next weekend. The card was booked to be headlined by a fight between Holly Holm and Irene Aldana, but that has since been postponed. Instead, the UFC is putting on the rare three-round main event, with red hot prospect Edmen Shahbazyan taking on veteran middleweight Derek Brunson.
This will be a quick one to go through with just 11 fights on the card, and FanDuel Sportsbook has plenty of odds: outright winners, method of victory, and more.
Let's take a look at the best bets to make.
Edmen Shahbazyan (-310) vs. Derek Brunson (+250)
The 22-year old Shahbazyan is off to a perfect 11-0 start in his pro career, with the past four of those fights coming in the UFC after his breakout performance on Dana White's Contender Series. 10 of those wins have come inside the distance, with the lone decision victory coming in his UFC debut. He last fought in November, knocking out Brad Tavares with a head kick in the first round. That came just five months after Tavares lasted all five rounds in a decision loss to the current middleweight champion Israel Adesanya.
On the other side of the cage is the 36-year old Brunson, who is 4-4 over his past eight fights, with three of those losses coming by first-round knockout.
Shahbazyan averages an astoundingly high 6.77 takedowns landed per 15 minutes, but with Brunson's 100% takedown defense rate, this fight is likely to take place mostly standing. And Shahbazyan has the edge there as well, landing 7% more of his significant strike attempts, while also defending 8% more significant strikes attempted against him than Brunson.
The UFC is clearly giving Shahbazyan a big push with this main event slot, and he is rightfully a big favorite. Parlay plays on this card should include Shahbazyan at -310. With his tendency to end fights early, along with Brunson's recent record of being finished, Shahbazyan to win by KO/TKO or Submission at -195 is the way to attack this fight with a straight bet.
Vicente Luque (-184) vs. Randy Brown (+154)
This line is a lot closer than it should be. Vicente Luque is 11-3 in the UFC, with those losses coming in his UFC debut to Michael Graves, and then to hopeful title challenger Leon Edwards and former title challenger Stephen Thompson. All three of those losses came by decision.
On the other side, Randy Brown has put together a 6-3 record in the UFC, never winning more than two fights in a row. He was submitted by Graves, dropped a decision to Belal Muhammad, and was knocked out by Niko Price. Luque has already beaten Price twice and Muhammad once, with all three of those coming inside the distance. Their other common opponent is Bryn Barbarena, who Luque and Brown both beat by KO.
Luque has fared better against common opposition, as well as fought tougher competition in general, and he is actually a year younger than Brown. He is very active on the feet, landing an average of 5.66 significant strikes per minute, while also absorbing 5.79. A moneyline bet on Luque is the play in this fight.
Gerald Meerschaert (-172) vs. Ed Herman (+144)
Gerald Meerschaert is moving up to light heavyweight after dropping four of his past six fights at middleweight. He went 6-5 at middleweight, with just one of those wins coming against an opponent with a winning UFC record (Trevin Giles, 3-2).
Ed Herman also moved up from middleweight in 2016, dropping his first three fights at 205, before putting together his current two-fight win streak.
Their numbers are fairly similar, with Herman holding the edge in striking offense as well as wrestling.
|Gerald Meerschaert||Ed Herman|
|Sig. Strikes Landed per min.||3.31||3.33|
|Sig. Strikes Absorbed per min.||3.58||3.13|
|Takedowns Landed per 15 min.||2.34||2.20|
|Submission Attempts per 15 min.||1.70||1.20|
Despite being 39 years old, Herman should be favored or at least a lesser underdog in this fight. The pick is Herman to win at +144.