Betting Guide for UFC Fight Night on 7/25/20
It's time for the UFC to wrap up its stay on Fight Island, as they will head back to Las Vegas for the next card.
We have a whopping 15 fights on this card, and FanDuel Sportsbook has plenty of odds: outright winners, method of victory, and more.
Let's take a look at the best bets to make.
Robert Whittaker (-134) vs. Darren Till (+114)
The former champion Robert Whittaker returns to action after losing his middleweight title to Israel Adesanya in October. He will be up against Darren Till, who won his middleweight debut by split decision against Kelvin Gastelum in November, following two-straight losses to end his run in the welterweight division.
Till's lone middleweight victory does not look all that impressive after we saw Gastelum get heel hooked in the first round this past Saturday, and it would be hard to top Whittaker's resume, as he owns two five-round victories over Yoel Romero.
Till's strength is the power in his left hand, but he averages just 2.41 significant strikes landed per minute. Whittaker is primarily a striker too, landing 4.77 significant strikes per minute, with a low 39% accuracy rate. He averages only 0.36 takedowns per 15 minutes, but he actually earned a spot on the Australian national wrestling team for the Commonwealth Games back in 2018, proving that he is a much more capable wrestler than the numbers show. Till owns an 82% takedown defense rate, but keep in mind that all but one of his UFC fights came at a division 15 pounds lighter.
As long as Whittaker's head is in this fight, he has the advantages to come away with the win here, and -134 is a fair price.
Mauricio Rua (-196) vs. Antonio Rogerio Nogueira (+164)
Does this matchup sound familiar?
These two have already fought each other twice, with Mauricio Rua picking up decision victories in 2005 and 2015. Neither fighter has been very active in the five years since that second meeting, with Rua putting together a record of 3-1-1 and Antonio Rogerio Nogueira picking up two TKO victories to go along with two KO/TKO defeats.
This matchup being made for a third time does not make much sense from a competitive standpoint, and Nogueira has already said that he would like to retire after this fight. His most likely avenue to victory in this fight is to by KO/TKO, which is priced at +380. But his 2.39 significant strikes landed per minute and 34% striking accuracy are not all that intimidating, and Rua has already withstood his offense for 15 minutes twice.
At 38 years old, Rua may not have much left in the tank either, but this time he's five years younger than his opponent, who he has already beaten twice. He is the pick to win this one, his KO/TKO line of +155 is attractive, considering that's how he picked up both of his past two victories.
Tom Aspinall (-235) vs. Jake Collier (+194)
Jake Collier put together a 2-2 record at middleweight to begin his UFC career. He then lost his lone light heavyweight fight, and next picked up a victory in his only heavyweight fight in November of 2017. He has not fought since then, partially due to a one-year USADA suspension, and now weighed in for this fight just under the heavyweight limit at a massive 264 pounds. It's been just over four years since his last middleweight fight, and he's weighing in 89 pounds above that 185-pound mark in addition to coming off a near three-year layoff.
Meanwhile, Tom Aspinall is making his UFC debut carrying a 7-2 professional record, including two first-round TKO victories under the Cage Warriors banner in his most recent fights. All seven of his pro victories have actually come within the first round, with both of his losses happening in the only fights in which he made it to the second round. And one of those losses was from a downward elbow disqualification.
Aspinall is rightfully a solid favorite in this fight, and it's likely that he wins by KO/TKO or submission, which is priced at -130. But considering his tendency to end fights within the first round, the more appealing number is this fight lasting under 1.5 rounds at +130.