UFC Daily Fantasy Helper: Fight Night 7/18/20
Combat sports are one of America's longest-standing active sports to wager on. This was evident throughout the late-1900s as boxing took the sports world by storm. From Muhammed Ali to Mike Tyson, several stars were born, and Americans around the country placed bets on who would win boxing matches. Nowadays, with boxing much smaller than it was throughout the 1900s, mixed martial arts has taken the lead as America's favorite combat sport.
By far, the largest and most successful MMA organization in North America is the Ultimate Fighting Championship, commonly known as UFC. The UFC lays claim to the best mixed martial artists in the world and is showcased on both cable and pay-per-view events every month. As one of the first sports to return with compliance of social distancing, UFC daily fantasy is now live on FanDuel.
numberFire is always your best place to prepare for the upcoming UFC card. In addition to this DFS helper, Barry Cohen has you covered with his betting guide to find where to place sharp money on Saturday’s fights.
With those tools at our disposal, let's break down UFC Fight Night on July 18th, 2020 in Abu Dhabi.
MVP Considerations
Deiveson Figueiredo ($22): The title on the line Saturday is in flyweight, where Deiverson Figueiredo and Joseph Benavidez will meet for an immediate title rematch. This actually was the last UFC fight with fans in February (available free from UFC this week to watch if one is interested), and Figueiredo dominated Benavidez in every category except strikes. He held the center of the octagon the entire first round, including almost submitting Benavidez, and landed more accurate heavy punches en route to a second-round KO. His power is deadly for flyweight, which has led to four finishes in his last six fights for “Deus Da Guerra.” He will never be incredibly voluminous for fantasy, but the power in hands that lands with tremendous accuracy (52% striking accuracy) has him a justifiably solid favorite to best Benavidez again on Saturday.
Grant Dawson ($20): Grant Dawson is a wrestler to his core, and he has had about as good a start to a UFC career as one could hope for. He's got three straight wins, including two by finish, and is set up for another as a -250 favorite over Nad Narimani. Narimani wrestles, as well, at 2.64 takedowns per fight, but that does not compare to the dominant 5.09 marker for “KGD.” Dawson will have height and reach advantages, too, which is beneficial in a potential wrestling match. Dawson is no slouch on the feet (3.48 significant strikes per minute) and tries to finish on the mat (2.5 submission attempts per match), too, giving him plenty of potential tools to end this one early.
Mid-Priced Fighters
Jack Hermansson ($16): “The Joker” Jack Hermansson had a bad day in his last bout inside an octagon, falling by knockout as a heavy favorite to Jared Cannonier. Cannonier, however, has knocked out three straight and is a rising star at middleweight, so it is possible Hermansson was just placed in front of a moving train. Hermansson still has finished five of his last seven fights and has great potential fantasy volume with 5.03 strikes per minute and 2.23 takedowns per match. He is the favorable side to back with huge height and reach advantages as a slight underdog to Kelvin Gastelum, who does have power but has eclipsed 50 strikes in only two of his last 12 UFC fights.
Sergey Spivak ($16): Carlos Felipe is the hottest new heavyweight making his UFC debut at 8-0 in Brazil with six wins by knockout. However, he could have a great deal of trouble with “The Polar Bear” on Saturday night. Spivak has already derailed one heavyweight knockout artist in his time in the UFC as he mauled Tai “Bam Bam” Tuivasa to the tune of six takedowns in fewer than two rounds and an early submission. Felipe’s takedown defense will be put to its toughest test here, and while Spivak has struggled with larger wrestlers like Marcin Tybura, he is the larger man in this fight and is a -170 favorite on the moneyline.
Value Fighters
Luane Carolina ($14): The line between Carolina and Ariane Lipski is quickly moving toward even money as dollars roll in on the Brazilian. Why she is receiving bets is obvious -- she had a stunning UFC debut against Priscila Cachoeira, where she racked up 111 significant strikes and three submission attempts in a dominant win. Lipski appears to be a hittable target, absorbing 4.62 significant strikes per minute and defending only 37% of her opponent’s takedowns. Carolina is the higher-pace side in fantasy, and that could lead to a huge win at an affordable price tag.
Davi Ramos ($13): The fourth Brazilian of the helper is Ramos, a UFC veteran that has won four of his six fights inside the Octagon. An underdog with fight-finishing upside compared to his counterpart is always desirable, which makes Ramos a very interesting play with +270 knockout/submission odds, compared to his opponent Arman Tsarukyan at a distant +490. Ramos has every formula ripe for an upset as he is a finisher (three of four wins by submission), with great defense (57% striking defense) and a durable chin (never been finished in a UFC event). Ramos is a standout budget option amidst many UFC newcomers and unknowns.
Austin Swaim is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Austin Swaim also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username ASwaim3. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his personal views, he may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his personal account. The views expressed in his articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.
