Daily Fantasy UFC: Stats, Data, and Betting Odds for Fight Night 6/27/20
Saturday's UFC card has a couple of components that are bound to make things interesting.
First, the card has undergone several big changes. Two fighters have dropped out, and another fight has been added since FanDuel initially published the slate. This can lead to some inefficient salaries for us to exploit.
Second, there are a bunch of inexperienced fighters. At least four fighters will be making their UFC debuts, and more than half of the current fighters have fewer than three fights on their resume. There is going to be some guesswork and extrapolation involved there.
As such, we've got to lean hard on whatever data we do have and try to best position ourselves to take advantage of the fluidity.
Much of that will relate to betting odds, which are the main feature of the table below. Fighters are sorted by their FanDuel salaries with their moneyline win odds and knockout or submission odds right next to that. The moneyline numbers are via UFC odds with the vig removed, and the knockout/submission odds are based on the double-chance odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.
As of this publication, we are still waiting for some data there. There aren't currently double-chance odds for Sean Woodson ($18) versus Julian Erosa ($11), but Woodson has the best win odds on the slate at 82.3%. (UPDATE: Those numbers have since been posted and added to the table below.) Additionally, the opponent for Mara Romero Borella ($12) has not yet been announced, so those betting odds will be added later on.
The other data is all individual fighter stats from UFCStats.com. "SubAp15" is submission attempts per 15 minutes, "TDp15" is takedowns landed per 15 minutes, and "SSLPM" is significant strikes landed per minute. All three of these categories directly translate to FanDuel points, and the sum of them on a per-minute basis is noted in the "FDPPM" column for FanDuel points per minute.
The other number listed is "TDD%," which is takedown defense rate for both the fighter and their opponent. This shows us how often a fighter successfully fends off opposing takedown attempts, another thing that directly translates to FanDuel points.
It can also show us fighters who may be facing opponents vulnerable to takedowns. For example, Youssef Zalal ($12) had a whopping six takedowns in his UFC debut and is facing Jordan Griffin ($19), whose takedown defense percentage is down at 35%. That could help explain why there has been heavy line movement in Zalal's favor.
Before checking out the data, the sample sizes are worth noting. It's the first UFC fight for Kay Hansen ($15), Ramiz Brahimaj ($14), Kyle Daukaus ($12), and Jinh Yu Frey ($11). Woodson, Zalal, Brendan Allen ($18), Tanner Boser ($17), Takashi Sato ($16), Philipe Lins ($15), and Khama Worthy ($11) have either just one or two fights on their ledger thus far.
| Fighter | Opponent | Salary | WinOdds | KO/SubOdds | SubAp15 | TDp15 | oTDD% | TDD% | SSLPM | FDPPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dustin Poirier | Dan Hooker | $22 | 67.4% | 54.5% | 1.2 | 1.55 | 78% | 61% | 5.51 | 1.35 |
| Mike Perry | Mickey Gall | $20 | 75.6% | 63.0% | 0.0 | 0.61 | 44% | 70% | 4.27 | 0.50 |
| Maurice Greene | Gian Villante | $19 | 69.2% | 57.4% | 0.5 | 0.00 | 83% | 33% | 4.19 | 0.42 |
| Luis Pena | Khama Worthy | $19 | 72.0% | 45.5% | 1.0 | 1.00 | 0% | 45% | 3.32 | 0.93 |
| Jordan Griffin | Youssef Zalal | $19 | 46.5% | 27.8% | 2.5 | 0.35 | 0% | 35% | 2.87 | 1.15 |
| Sean Woodson | Julian Erosa | $18 | 80.6% | 60.0% | 0.0 | 0.00 | 58% | 85% | 5.27 | 0.32 |
| Brendan Allen | Kyle Daukaus | $18 | 73.3% | 57.4% | 4.5 | 2.68 | -- | 75% | 2.62 | 2.73 |
| Dan Hooker | Dustin Poirier | $18 | 32.6% | 27.0% | 0.3 | 0.43 | 61% | 78% | 4.76 | 0.56 |
| Tanner Boser | Philipe Lins | $17 | 48.5% | 16.7% | 0.0 | 0.00 | 0% | 100% | 4.17 | 0.25 |
| Takashi Sato | Ramiz Brahimaj | $16 | 55.8% | 36.4% | 0.0 | 0.82 | -- | 77% | 3.13 | 0.52 |
| Philipe Lins | Tanner Boser | $15 | 51.5% | 30.3% | 0.0 | 0.00 | 100% | 0% | 2.73 | 0.16 |
| Kay Hansen | Jinh Yu Frey | $15 | 60.9% | 25.6% | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Ramiz Brahimaj | Takashi Sato | $14 | 44.2% | 35.1% | -- | -- | 77% | -- | -- | -- |
| Mickey Gall | Mike Perry | $13 | 24.4% | 21.3% | 2.7 | 1.50 | 70% | 44% | 2.22 | 1.63 |
| Youssef Zalal | Jordan Griffin | $12 | 53.5% | 26.3% | 2.0 | 6.00 | 35% | 0% | 2.07 | 3.19 |
| Kyle Daukaus | Brendan Allen | $12 | 26.7% | 18.2% | -- | -- | 75% | -- | -- | -- |
| Mara Romero Borella | TBD | $12 | -- | -- | 0.2 | 1.66 | #N/A | 66% | 2.54 | 0.88 |
| Khama Worthy | Luis Pena | $11 | 28.0% | 20.8% | 0.0 | 0.00 | 45% | 0% | 4.94 | 0.30 |
| Gian Villante | Maurice Greene | $11 | 30.8% | 18.2% | 0.0 | 0.53 | 33% | 83% | 4.26 | 0.47 |
| Julian Erosa | Sean Woodson | $11 | 19.4% | 14.3% | 0.8 | 0.83 | 85% | 58% | 4.18 | 0.85 |
| Jinh Yu Frey | Kay Hansen | $11 | 39.1% | 10.5% | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
Because of all the changes and weirdness on the slate, this isn't as uniform as usual. There are some lower-salaried fighters with solid win odds. So, take some time to digest the numbers, find the numbers that stand out with where things are currently at, and then build from there.
