Betting Guide for UFC Fight Night on 6/27/20
While some other sports are beginning to start back up and others still have no return in sight, the UFC will put on its eighth post-shutdown event on Saturday.
This one is headlined by a lightweight bout between former interim champion Dustin Poirier and City Kickboxing stud Dan Hooker. We'll also get our first look at four UFC newcomers, and FanDuel Sportsbook has plenty of odds: outright winners, method of victory, and more.
Let's take a look at the best bets to make.
Dustin Poirier (-230) vs. Dan Hooker (+184)
Taking a look at the stats on this week's main event, it's clear that we're going to see an action-packed striking war.
|Fighter||Dustin Poirier||Dan Hooker|
|Sig. Strikes Landed per Minute||5.51||4.76|
|Sig. Strikes Absorbed per Minute||3.97||4.67|
|Avg. Takedowns Landed per 15 Minutes||1.55||0.43|
|Submission Attempts per 15 Minutes||1.20||0.30|
Both fighters throw and absorb a high number of strikes, with a similar accuracy and defense rate. The numbers also show an advantage toward Poirier, who leads the way in every above category outside of takedown defense. But that number, along with all of Poirier's other stats, are affected by his high level of competition. For example, Poirier was taken down seven times in his most recent fight against lightweight champion Khabib Nurmagomedov, who holds the UFC record for most takedowns landed in a fight (21).
Poirier actually has the better ground game in this matchup, as shown by his 1.20 submission attempts per 15 minutes, so this fight going to the ground would actually play to his advantage.
Hooker has gone 7-1 over his past eight fights but has not fought nearly the level of competition that Poirier has throughout his UFC career. Poirier is a -230 favorite for a reason and can be bet that way straight up or added to parlays, such as a simple two-fight pairing with co-main event favorite Mike Perry. Two of Poirier's past three wins have come via TKO, and FanDuel Sportsbook is offering a very attractive odds boost of +160 for Poirier to win by KO/TKO in this one.
Mike Perry (-330) vs. Mickey Gall (+250)
As Austin Swaim mentioned on The Heat Check Fantasy Podcast, I recently dubbed Perry as someone to bet against no matter what in his next fight. That was due to Perry choosing to stop training with any MMA team, get rid of all coaches, and declare that only his girlfriend (who has no MMA experience) will corner him from now on.
Then the UFC matched up Perry against Mickey Gall, who was already on my short list of fighters to bet against. Gall is most known for getting into the UFC by calling out C.M. Punk, who he went on to defeat by first-round submission. He has done a great job promoting himself into winnable fights, but his 5-2 UFC record is boosted by facing very weak competition.
Perry has fallen to a 2-5 record over his past seven fights, but those came against much tougher competition, with each of his past three losses coming at the hands of ranked opponents.
Gall is the much bigger fighter in this matchup, carrying a 4" height and 3" reach advantage. That will add on to his grappling advantage, as the jiu-jitsu black belt has picked up four of his five UFC wins by way of submission. He averages 2.7 submission attempts per 15 minutes, compared to 0.0 for Perry. Gall also leads this matchup with an average of 1.50 takedowns landed per 15 minutes, compared to 0.61 for Perry. A submission is the clear path to victory for Gall in this one, and you can bet that at +500.
But Perry has been submitted only one time in his 19-fight pro career and has been competing in grappling competitions recently, including a victory over Al Iaquinta at Submission Underground 11 back on February 23rd. Perry also holds a big advantage in the striking department, landing an average of 4.27 significant strikes per minute, compared to 2.22 for Gall, and won his first four UFC fights by KO/TKO.
This fight is priced at -430 to end inside the distance, meaning it is extremely likely to end early. Perry will be looking to win by KO/TKO (-145), and Gall will be aiming for the submission victory (+500). I see them both trying to get that done early, providing value on this fight lasting under 1.5 rounds, which is priced at -102.
Philipe Lins (-116) vs. Tanner Boser (-106)
Philipe Lins became PFL's first million dollar heavyweight champion in 2018 after winning all four of his Season 1 fights by TKO or submission. We've seen him fight just once in the UFC since then, which came in a decision loss to his American Top Team teammate, Andrei Arlovski. Lins fought tentatively in that one, landing just 2.73 significant strikes per minute and attempting zero takedowns against an inferior grappler.
Tanner Boser made it into the UFC after putting together a questionable 1-1-1 record in his previous three fights and has tallied one win and one loss since joining the promotion. He averages a high 4.17 significant strikes landed per minute and has yet to hit the ground in his short UFC career, as he has defended 100% of takedowns, while attempting none himself.
Though both fighters stand at 6'2", Lins will carry a 3" reach advantage into the fight. He has the superior grappling and has fought at a higher competition longer that Boser, with stints in both Bellator and PFL. With a little juice on the Lins side (-116), I'm siding with him to get his first UFC victory on Saturday.
Whether Lins was timid in his UFC debut due to fighting a teammate or not is still up for debate. What we do know is that each of Boser's past five losses have come via decision, and he has not been finished since 2015. That gives some appeal to Lins winning by points at +260.