Betting Guide for UFC Fight Night on 6/13/20
The UFC is literally rolling with the punches, as Saturday will be their sixth event in the past five weeks.
It will be tough to follow last week's star-studded UFC 250, but we do get an 11-fight card to break down, and FanDuel Sportsbook has plenty of odds: outright winners, method of victory, and more.
Let's take a look at the bets that stand out.
Jessica Eye (-116) vs. Cynthia Calvillo (-106)
UFC fighters with both a height and reach advantage over their opponent have gone 54-31-1 so far in 2020. Jessica Eye has a 2" advantage in both categories and began her career at 135 pounds in the women's bantamweight division. Meanwhile, this will be Cynthia Calvillo's first fight since moving up from the 115 pound strawweight division.
Both of these fighters are active in the striking department, with neither of their numbers standing out from the other. We do see a big difference in grappling, though, as Calvillo averages 1.83 takedowns landed per 15 minutes compared to just 0.46 for Eye.
Eye has gone 4-1 at flyweight, with all of her wins coming by decision, and her only loss coming by second round KO to the seemingly unstoppable champion, Valentina Shevchenko.
Calvillo has picked up three of her five UFC wins by submission and has a clear path to victory by submission in this one (+440) if she does use her grappling. But she has also fought to a decision in her four other UFC fights, with all of those being against smaller women than Eye.
This is a close fight as the odds suggest, but with the odds slightly in her favor, to go along with a size advantage, I'm going to side with Eye getting her hand raised. She has fought to a decision in 10 of her 12 UFC fights and can be bet at +165 to win by points in this one.
Marvin Vettori (-245) vs. Karl Roberson (+196)
This fight was supposed to happen a month ago in Jacksonville but was rescheduled after Karl Roberson pulled out the night before due to weight cutting complications. Marvin Vettori was a much lesser favorite at that time, being price at just -158. With an extra month to look at the fight, he has been bet all the way up to -245 to win.
By the numbers, these fighters are fairly similar, with each one claiming an edge in certain categories.
| Category | Vettori | Roberson |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed per Minute | 4.05 | 3.16 |
| Significant Striking Accuracy | 41% | 52% |
| Significant Strikes Absorbed per Minute | 2.85 | 1.8 |
| Significant Strike Defense | 66% | 64% |
| Takedowns Landed per 15 Minutes | 1.43 | 1.07 |
| Takedown Accuracy | 45% | 57% |
| Takedown Defense | 80% | 53% |
| Submission Attempts per 15 Minutes | 0.6 | 0.8 |
Roberson has put together a respectable 4-1 record across his middleweight fights in the UFC, with two wins by submission and a decision over a tough Jack Marshmann. The loss came by first round submission to Cezar Ferreira, who Vettori beat by decision last year. Vettori is 4-2-1, with one loss to Antonio Carlos Junior and the other by split decision to the current champ, Israel Adesanya. So one judge even had Vettori beating Adesanya two years ago.
Vettori has fought to a decision in all but his first UFC fight. He is the pick to win straight up here. If the -245 line is too big for your liking, Vettori is priced at +100 to win by decision.
Roberson owns a 15-second KO win over Ryan Spann at light heavyweight on Dana White's Contender Series to go along with his two submission wins at middleweight, so his +440 line to win by KO/TKO or Submission is appealing for anyone looking to take his side.
Andre Fili (-230) vs. Charles Jourdain (+184)
Remember that statistic regarding UFC fighters with both a height and reach advantage winning 65.85% of fights in 2020?
Fili fits that bill with a 2" height and 5" reach advantage in this bout. This one will likely be a striking war, with Andre Fili averaging 4.00 significant strikes landed per minute (37%) and 3.96 significant strikes absorbed per minute (53%), compared to 4.85 landed (43%) and 4.89 absorbed (49%) for Charles Jourdain.
We have not seen Jourdain use any grappling through his two UFC fights, while Fili is averaging 2.49 takedowns landed per 15 minutes.
This is another card where underdogs are hard to come by, and the veteran Fili is a rightful favorite at -230. That doesn't mean we can't find any value on this bout. The fight is priced at -152 to go the distance, which Fili has done in seven of his past eight UFC fights. Both of Jourdain's career losses also went the distance, putting the value here on Fili by points at -105.
