Daily Fantasy UFC: Stats, Data, and Betting Odds for 5/16/20
The UFC is setting up to round out its three-card-in-eight-day stretch this Saturday with Walt Harris ($22) versus Alistair Overeem ($18) as the headliner on an 11-fight card. That means we've got even more DFS to whet our appetite with numerous sports still on hiatus. Hallelujah.
As we did for Wednesday's card, we're going to lay out the key data points you need to know before filling out your FanDuel lineups all in one place. This way, you can check out the page, formulate your own opinions on the card, and (hopefully) fill out unique, informed lineups.
The data for Saturday's card is below with the fighters sorted by their FanDuel salaries.
On FanDuel, you earn points for submission attempts, takedowns, and significant strikes, so all three categories are listed below with the data via UFCStats.com. "SubAp15" is submission attempts per 15 minutes, "TDp15" is takedown attempts per 15 minutes, and "SSLPM" is significant strikes landed per minute. "TDD%" and "oTDD%" refer to that fighter's and their opponent's takedown defense percentage, which doesn't directly lead to FanDuel points but can help illustrate what type of fighter each person is.
Because the three categories are all on different scales, they're combined and calculated as "FD PPM," or FanDuel points per minute once you take out the points related to decisions. This can give you an idea of which fighters may have a better floor due to what they can do independent of how the fight finishes.
But more important than any of that is the result of the match. As such, each fighter's win odds are also listed, based on the betting odds at UFC odds. In order to make everything equal, the vig was removed from each of those numbers.
The other odds category listed is the odds of a win by knockout, technical knockout, or submission, as outlined in the double-chance odds on FanDuel Sportsbook. This can give us a read on who the bookmakers think has the best chance to end a fight early, which would give a massive boost to their point total.
This number helps us differentiate between fighters with similar win odds. For example, Harris has 60.0% odds to win once you account for the vig, which ranks just fifth on the slate. However, with Harris lined up to go five rounds against Overeem, Harris' odds to win by knockout or submission are 55.6%, which tops on the slate. Both numbers will be key in determining which fighter you want to use in your MVP slot on FanDuel, which earns a 1.5x multiplier.
One final thing that is important to note is a couple of small samples on the stats. This is the first official UFC fight for Mike Davis ($21) and Rodrigo Nascimiento Ferreira ($15), so they have no data. Miguel Baeza ($20), Don'Tale Mayes ($17), and Nate Landwehr ($15) are in just their second fights, meaning the data below is from their UFC debuts. And, finally, Anthony Hernandez ($16) and Giga Chikadze ($11) have just two fights worth of data within the table.
*(UPDATE: Mike Davis has been replaced by Irwin Rivera for the bout against Giga Chikadze. Rivera is not in the player pool, but Chikadze will still be eligible to earn points. Betting information for that bout will be added once lines are posted. This is Rivera's UFC debut.)
| Fighter | Opponent | Salary | Win% | KO/Sub% | SubAp15 | TDp15 | oTDD% | TDD% | SSLPM | FD PPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Walt Harris | Alistair Overeem | $22 | 60.0% | 55.6% | 0.2 | 0.35 | 73% | 76% | 2.96 | 0.38 |
| Miguel Baeza | Matt Brown | $20 | 65.3% | 51.2% | 1.3 | 0.67 | 63% | 100% | 4.26 | 0.96 |
| Song Yadong | Marlon Vera | $19 | 62.1% | 33.3% | 0.7 | 0.97 | 68% | 66% | 3.54 | 0.83 |
| Alistair Overeem | Walt Harris | $18 | 40.0% | 32.3% | 0.9 | 1.39 | 76% | 73% | 3.54 | 1.07 |
| Krzysztof Jotko | Eryk Anders | $18 | 59.0% | 18.9% | 0.1 | 1.39 | 76% | 85% | 2.84 | 0.76 |
| Claudia Gadelha | Angela Hill | $17 | 64.2% | 17.9% | 0.8 | 3.34 | 72% | 58% | 3.17 | 1.79 |
| Edson Barboza | Dan Ige | $17 | 53.5% | 33.3% | 0.1 | 0.49 | 61% | 80% | 4.01 | 0.47 |
| Don'Tale Mayes | Rodrigo Nascimento Ferreira | $17 | 53.1% | 42.6% | 0.0 | 0.00 | -- | 66% | 4.25 | 0.26 |
| Kevin Holland | Anthony Hernandez | $16 | 50.0% | 22.2% | 1.1 | 1.27 | 85% | 48% | 4.16 | 1.12 |
| Anthony Hernandez | Kevin Holland | $16 | 50.0% | 27.8% | 0.9 | 5.48 | 48% | 85% | 5.23 | 2.81 |
| Dan Ige | Edson Barboza | $16 | 46.5% | 22.2% | 0.8 | 2.38 | 80% | 61% | 3.89 | 1.45 |
| Rodrigo Nascimento Ferreira | Don'Tale Mayes | $15 | 46.9% | 39.2% | -- | -- | 66% | -- | -- | -- |
| Darren Elkins | Nate Landwehr | $15 | 51.5% | 19.6% | 1.3 | 2.52 | 0% | 58% | 3.27 | 1.64 |
| Nate Landwehr | Darren Elkins | $15 | 48.5% | 27.8% | 0.0 | 0.00 | 58% | 0% | 1.47 | 0.09 |
| Marlon Vera | Song Yadong | $14 | 37.9% | 26.3% | 1.4 | 0.76 | 66% | 68% | 3.43 | 0.98 |
| Cortney Casey | Mara Romero Borella | $14 | 57.8% | 16.7% | 0.5 | 0.35 | 66% | 38% | 4.80 | 0.59 |
| Matt Brown | Miguel Baeza | $14 | 34.7% | 22.2% | 1.6 | 1.64 | 100% | 63% | 3.75 | 1.41 |
| Mara Romero Borella | Cortney Casey | $13 | 42.2% | 15.4% | 0.2 | 1.51 | 38% | 66% | 2.61 | 0.83 |
| Eryk Anders | Krzysztof Jotko | $13 | 41.0% | 27.8% | 0.1 | 1.51 | 85% | 76% | 3.06 | 0.82 |
| Angela Hill | Claudia Gadelha | $12 | 35.8% | 14.3% | 0.2 | 0.50 | 58% | 72% | 5.74 | 0.61 |
| *Giga Chikadze | Irwin Rivera | $11 | -- | -- | 0.0 | 0.34 | -- | 59% | 3.06 | 0.32 |
Data is just one component in deciding your lineups, so you'll want to be sure to check out Austin Swaim's DFS helper later this week on numberFire. Austin will also join me to break the down slate in podcast form on our DFS podcast feed, and that audio will be posted by mid-day Friday. But until that time, this data should at least give you a good overview of the slate so you can dig in and try to find some gems.
