World Cup Betting Guide for Monday 11/28/22: Will Brazil Dominate Despite Injuries?
We all know that the World Cup doesn’t come around every year, and that can make for some difficult projecting.
Team qualifying samples are small, injuries are crucial, and opponent adjustments must be made before projecting out World Cup matches.
Thankfully, we have ways to do that, and numberFire’s World Cup betting model offers up game-specific projections for each stage of the World Cup.
Here are the best bets for World Cup action on Monday, November 28th.
(Note: all records are listed in win-loss-draw format rather than win-draw-loss. All expected goal data from FBRef.)
Serbia (-125) vs. Cameroon (+390)
Draw odds: +250
A much more winnable match for Serbia awaits in their second match than in their first. In their opener, they played World Cup favorite Brazil, who beat them 2-0 on the back of an expected goal differential of 2.4 to 0.2.
Cameroon lost 1-0 to Switzerland with an expected goal score of 1.4 to 0.7 in their first match.
The FIFA rankings put Serbia 21st and Cameroon 43rd, but my adjusted goal differential marks from relevant qualifying matches have this one a bit closer with Serbia at +1.25 and Cameroon at +1.13.
numberFire's model is pretty big on Serbia in this matchup and likes the Serbia moneyline (-135) as a three-star play out of five.
My model's favorite route is under 2.5 goals (-134).
South Korea (+150) vs. Ghana (+210)
Draw odds: +200
These two teams had tales of different goal totals in their openers. Korea Republic played Uruguay to a 0-0 draw, and Ghana scored twice in a loss to Portugal (who scored three times).
This match is expected to play close with draw odds at +200 and no team listed at minus odds on the moneyline.
Neither side put up more than 0.9 expected goals in their opening match, but with some adjustments, I view South Korea as having better expected goal data than Uruguay despite the draw and Ghana trailing Portugal by just 0.28 expected goals.
numberFire's model likes South Korea (+150) to win as a three-star play. My model thinks their win odds should be +120, so there's some value there for me, as well.
Brazil (-210) vs. Switzerland (+600)
Draw odds: +320
Both Neymar and Danilo will miss this match after sustaining injuries in Brazil's opener against Serbia. Neymar had four shot attempts in that match, and Neymar and Danilo combined for 10 shot-creating actions.
Switzerland's 1-0 win over Cameroon came with 1.4 expected goals (with 0.7 allowed). They had just 51% of the possession and had fewer shots on target (7) than they allowed (8).
Brazil's moneyline is a bit too heavy, though it's hard to go against them to pick up a win against a still-overmatched Switzerland team. The better value is on Brazil -1.0 (+135).
Portugal (-105) vs. Uruguay (+310)
Draw odds: +230
Portugal picked up three points on the back of a 3-2 win over Ghana in their opener. All three of Portugal's goals came in the second half, starting with a Ronaldo penalty kick in the 65th minute.
Uruguay, 14th in the FIFA World Rankings, projects closer to Portugal (9th) than the betting odds indicate.
numberFire's model absolutely loves Portugal, though, and thinks they are 67.0% likely to win.
Where my data and numberFire's algorithm align is on the under 2.5 goals (-156). numberFire's algo has this game staying under 2.5 goals 58.0% of the time; mine has it at 61.5%.