FanDuel Soccer: EPL DFS Under-the-Radar Plays for 11/12/22
If you have played daily fantasy sports for a while, you know the importance of being contrarian in large-field tournaments. Recognizing which players are going to be popular and finding others who you think have a similar point projection but will be much less popular can separate you from your opponents.
The same goes for EPL DFS. Even though the large-field tournaments aren't quite as large as they are for other sports, there is still value in identifying quality under-the-radar plays.
This article will discuss FanDuel's main Saturday slate, which starts at 10:00 a.m. EST and features seven matches. All betting lines come from FanDuel Sportsbook, and they may change after the article is published.
Leeds (+420) at Tottenham (-160)
Over 2.5 Goals: -160 | Most Likely to Score: Kane (-110)
Leicester (+270) at West Ham (+105)
Over 2.5 Goals: -108 | Most Likely to Score: Vardy (+180)
Southampton (+1000) at Liverpool (-450)
Over 2.5 Goals: -250 | Most Likely to Score: Salah (-125)
Crystal Palace (+140) at Nottingham Forest (+210)
Over 2.5 Goals: +120 | Most Likely to Score: Philippe-Mateta and Edouard (+195)
Everton (+155) at Bournemouth (+190)
Over 2.5 Goals: +116 | Most Likely to Score: Solanke (+220)
Chelsea (+210) at Newcastle (+130)
Over 2.5 Goals: -110 | Most Likely to Score: Wilson (+165)
Arsenal (-185) at Wolves (+500)
Over 2.5 Goals: -122 | Most Likely to Score: Jesus (+125)
Matchweek 15 features four big-six sides, with Arsenal, Chelsea, Tottenham, and Liverpool all in action.
Liverpool (-450 to win) are the largest favorite on the slate, and Mohamed Salah ($22) has the best odds to score (-125) of any player expected to be active on Saturday.
Arsenal (-185 to win) are the second-biggest favorite, followed by Tottenham (-160 to win) and West Ham (+105 to win). Newcastle (+130 to win), Crystal Palace (+140 to win), and Everton (+155 to win) round out the slate.
Saturday will be the final main slate before the Premier League breaks for the World Cup. With all eyes shifting to Qatar and many sides coming off mid-week Cup fixtures with little rest, keep an eye out for squad rotation for the four big-six sides in action. Liverpool finally got back to winning ways with their narrow victory over Tottenham last Sunday, but the general attitude towards their Premier League season thus far should keep their stars from being super popular this weekend, despite their on-paper status as the largest favorite.
With plenty of options at the top of the player pool, fading Liverpool, or any of the big-six sides, is worth considering for large-field tournaments this weekend.
With that in mind, here are three players to consider -- especially for tournament formats -- who may fly under the radar.
Miguel Almiron, FWD/MID, Newcastle
FanDuel Salary: $19
It seems odd that a player who has scored in four straight matches could go slightly overlooked, yet the slate sets up for that to happen to Almiron on Saturday. He has performed incredibly well this season, but his high salary combined with the presence of star strikers from multiple big-six sides and a match-up against Chelsea could keep his draft percentage at lower levels.
On paper, Newcastle is the favorite, but facing a big-six side, the outlook for their stars is likely to be met with some skepticism from the public, despite their white-hot start to the season. Almiron's salary is only $1 less than Arsenal's Gabriel Jesus ($20) and Liverpool's Roberto Firmino ($20) and $2 less than Tottenham's Harry Kane ($21), all of whom have more favorable matchups.
But the matchup against Chelsea is more favorable than it seems. They are winless in their last four and have lost two in a row coming into Saturday. Almiron has been one of the most in-form players on the planet since the start of October with seven goals combined over his last seven games. Almiron is in better form than the aforementioned trio of strikers, has a lower salary, and should have a much lower draft percentage.
Demarai Gray, FWD/MID, Everton
FanDuel Salary: $14
To say the least, Everton has struggled to score goals this season. They have just 11 total in 14 matches, third-fewest in the Premier League, including 4 in their last six fixtures. That's the bad news; the good news is they are facing Bournemouth on Saturday, the cure to offensive woes.
As bad as Everton has been in the final third, Bournemouth has been worse at keeping their opponents off the score sheet. They are conceding a ridiculous 2.3 goals per game this season, including nine combined over their last three fixtures. They enter Saturday on a four-match losing streak after just allowing four goals to Leeds last weekend. This is Everton's best possible chance to break out of their scoring slump.
Despite a lack of production, Gray has been involved in the final third. He has a combined five shots over his last three starts, including three on goal. He is averaging 11.7 FanDuel points per match, which, in light of Everton's struggles, is impressive given his affordable salary.
Trent Alexander-Arnold, FWD/MID, Bournemouth
FanDuel Salary: $13
TAA is having a quiet season by his lofty standards. He is averaging just 11.9 FanDuel points per game with one goal and no assists in 13 Premier League appearances. While he is on pace to match his 2 goals scored from last year's campaign, he is well behind his 12 assists. His production has been consistent, but he has lacked the ceiling performances that have punctuated his seasons in the past.
The absence of a final product isn't due to a lack of involvement. He leads Liverpool in set pieces taken, primarily due to his role on corners, and is averaging two chances created per match over his last six appearances. He remains a defender who is heavily involved in the final third, and his salary offers an excellent way to gain exposure to the largest favorite on the slate.
The presence of multiple strikers from big-six sides should result in most lineups spending down at defender to save salary. Consider fading Mohamed Salah and opting for a combination of TAA and either Thiago ($12) or Harvey Elliot ($14) instead to add exposure to Liverpool in a more unique way.