FanDuel Soccer: EPL DFS Under-the-Radar Plays for 11/5/22
If you have played daily fantasy sports for a while, you know the importance of being contrarian in large-field tournaments. Recognizing which players are going to be popular and finding others who you think have a similar point projection but will be much less popular can separate you from your opponents.
The same goes for EPL DFS. Even though the large-field tournaments aren't quite as large as they are for other sports, there is still value in identifying quality under-the-radar plays.
This article will discuss FanDuel's main Saturday slate, which starts at 11:00 a.m. EST and features five matches. All betting lines come from FanDuel Sportsbook, and they may change after the article is published.
Fulham (+1700) at Manchester City (-800)
Over 2.5 Goals: -350 | Most Likely to Score: Haaland (-260)
Bournemouth (+360) at Leeds (-135)
Over 2.5 Goals: -128 | Most Likely to Score: Bamford (+110)
Brighton (+115) at Wolves (+240)
Over 2.5 Goals: +104 | Most Likely to Score: Welbeck (+230)
Brentford (+160) at Nottingham Forest (+175)
Over 2.5 Goals: +100 | Most Likely to Score: Awoniyi (+220)
Leicester City (+200) at Everton (+135)
Over 2.5 Goals: -104 | Most Likely to Score: Vardy/Calvert-Lewin (+170)
Matchweek 14 features a single big-six side, with Manchester City hosting Fulham.
City (-800 to win) are the largest favorite on the slate, and Erling Haaland ($24) has the best odds to score (-260) of any player expected to be active on Saturday.
Leeds (-135 to win) are the second-biggest favorite, followed by Brighton (+115), Everton (+135), and Brentford (+160).
This slate starts with the status of Haaland, who has missed City's last two fixtures with a foot injury he suffered during a Champions League clash with Borussia Dortmund on October 25th. If Haaland is available and starts, even with the risk of being subbed off early, his draft percentage could approach extremely high levels. With no other big-six sides in action, fading Haaland would be very risky, and doing so would almost certainly be a bet against his fitness. He is averaging 41.1 FanDuel points per match and City are massive favorites, losing just one of their 19 games this season across all competition.
If Haaland is unavailable, City's stars will still be popular but should be nowhere near the same draft percentage a healthy Haaland would be.
With that in mind, here are three players to consider -- especially for tournament formats -- who may fly under the radar.
Brenden Aaronson, FWD/MID, Leeds
FanDuel Salary: $14
Aaronson has produced everything but the final product so far this season. While that is frustrating for Leeds supporters, it has helped mask his potential upside heading into a matchup with Bournemouth.
Aaronson has just one goal and one assist this campaign despite averaging 1.25 shots and 2.0 chances created per fixture. Over his last four matches, he is averaging 1.5 shots and 3.0 chances created per match and has played the full 90 minutes in all of them.
Enter Bournemouth, the side with the most goals conceded so far this season. They are allowing 2.15 goals per match and have lost three in a row heading into Saturday's meeting with Leeds. They have managed just three clean sheets so far this season and are coming off a blown game against Tottenham in which they failed to defend a two-goal lead with 34 minutes to go.
Leeds are coming off an emotional match of their own, a shocking one-goal victory over Liverpool. The win ended a four-match losing streak and may have saved Jesse Marsch's job. While there is a potential for a letdown here, it could also be the start of a turnaround.
Either way, Leeds should be able to find success against Bournemouth's defense, with Aaronson likely to benefit at the center of their attack.
Daniel Podence, FWD/MID, Wolves
FanDuel Salary: $14
Brighton are also on potential letdown watch coming off their impressive three-goal demolition of a Chelsea side managed by ex-Brighton boss Graham Potter. Prior to that win, Brighton was winless in their last five fixtures, including a loss to Brentford and a tie with Nottingham Forest. Now they'll be on the road, where they are winless in their last four.
Like Aaronson, Podence has delivered everything but the final product so far this season. He is averaging 12.75 FanDuel points per match with just two goals scored in 13 appearances but has been heavily involved in the final third in recent fixtures. Playing on the left side of Wolves' 4-2-3-1 formation, Podence has a combined eight shots and eight chances created from Wolves' last three matches. He has started and played the full 90 in six consecutive fixtures and is averaging more shots and key passes per game than both Chelsea's Raheem Sterling and Manchester United's Christian Eriksen.
Podence is still a risk due to Wolves' overall struggles in the final third. Wolves are averaging a league-worst 0.46 goals per match, and if Brighton doesn't drop their level, Wolves could be overmatched early and often. However, if the game is competitive, Podence's role offers decent upside at a manageable salary and what should be an extremely low draft percentage.
Philip Billing, FWD/MID, Bournemouth
FanDuel Salary: $15
Leeds have also had issues with their backline, conceding 1.8 goals per match over their last five fixtures. Leeds' victory over Liverpool could also set them up for a letdown game in this spot, and there could be goals on both sides. Outside of Manchester City's contest with Fulham, Bournemouth-Leeds has the best odds to go over 2.5 goals of any match on the slate.
Billing enters Saturday in a bit of a DFS slump, with just 3.9 and 9.5 FanDuel points in his last two fixtures. Prior to that, he had been on an excellent run of form, averaging 20.1 FanDuel points over a six-match stretch, with three goals scored in that span.
On a slate lacking elite options outside of City, Billing's ceiling with a single goal is enough to justify his inclusion in lineups for large-field tournaments. Pairing him with a striker from Leeds provides exposure to both sides of what is projected to be the second-highest scoring fixture on the slate.