FanDuel Soccer: EPL DFS Under-the-Radar Plays for 10/29/22
If you have played daily fantasy sports for a while, you know the importance of being contrarian in large-field tournaments. Recognizing which players are going to be popular and finding others who you think have a similar point projection but will be much less popular can separate you from your opponents.
The same goes for EPL DFS. Even though the large-field tournaments aren't quite as large as they are for other sports, there is still value in identifying quality under-the-radar plays.
This article will discuss FanDuel's main Saturday slate, which starts at 10:00 a.m. EST and features seven matches. All betting lines come from FanDuel Sportsbook, and they may change after the article is published.
Chelsea (+145) at Brighton (+190)
Over 2.5 Goals: +100 | Most Likely to Score: Aubameyang (+175)
Tottenham (-150) at Bournemouth (+420)
Over 2.5 Goals: -106 | Most Likely to Score: Kane (+110)
Southampton (+300) at Crystal Palace (-105)
Over 2.5 Goals: +106 | Most Likely to Score: Mateta/Eduoard (+165)
Aston Villa (+350) at Newcastle (-125)
Over 2.5 Goals: -106 | Most Likely to Score: Wilson (+140)
Wolves (+230) at Brentford (+115)
Over 2.5 Goals: -104 | Most Likely to Score: Toney (+150)
Everton (+210) at Fulham (+130)
Over 2.5 Goals: -110 | Most Likely to Score: Mitrovic (+110)
Leeds (+800) at Liverpool (-340)
Over 2.5 Goals: -280 | Most Likely to Score: Salah (-135)
Matchweek 13 features three big-six sides, with Liverpool, Tottenham, and Chelsea all in action.
Liverpool (-340 to win) are the largest favorite on the slate, and Mohamed Salah ($23) has the best odds to score (-135) of any player expected to be active on Saturday.
Tottenham (-150 to win) are the second-biggest favorite, followed by Newcastle (-125 to win) and Crystal Palace (-105 to win). Brentford (+115 to win), Fulham (+130 to win), and Chelsea (+145 to win) round out the slate.
Liverpool's position as the largest favorite on the slate may not command as much attention coming off their shocking one-goal loss to Nottingham Forest last weekend. They bounced back with a three-goal win over Ajax during the week and have won four of their last five, but their early-season struggles may remain on the minds of the public. Combine that with the salary discount available for Tottenham's and Chelsea's stars, and Liverpool's forwards may not be as popular as their on-paper situation indicates.
With that in mind, here are three players to consider -- especially for tournament formats -- who may fly under the radar.
Bruno Guimaraes, FWD/MID, Newcastle
FanDuel Salary: $16
Newcastle enters this weekend on a seven-match unbeaten streak with four wins in their last five fixtures. Their +10-goal differential this season is third-best in the Premier League, and they are tied atop the form table over the last six matches. All eyes will be on Aston Villa this weekend with new manager Unai Emery in charge for the first time, and he faces a difficult task versus an in-form Newcastle.
Guimaraes has been a high-floor FanDuel producer this season, averaging 17.4 FanDuel points per game and failing to reach double digits in only two of his nine starts. Coming off a 6.5-FanDuel-point outing against Tottenham, he may go overlooked despite Newcastle's form and his involvement in their attack.
Guimaraes has just two goals and two assists in his nine starts this season but has demonstrated a high ceiling with a 52.5-FanDuel-point performance against Brentford. Last season, he scored 5 goals on 23 shots in 17 appearances for Newcastle, and he should have a chance to add to his total this weekend against an Aston Villa side just starting their turnaround.
Bryan Mbeumo, FWD/MID, Brentford
FanDuel Salary: $12
Things have been borderline miserable for Brentford's attack recently, with just three goals scored across their last six fixtures. Thankfully, they face a Wolves side this weekend that has conceded a league-worst 14 goals over their last six, losing five matches during that stretch. The odds this game sees more than 2.5 goals (-104) give the edge to the ineffective offenses over the struggling defenses.
Mbeumo's lack of production hasn't been for a lack of attempts. He is averaging 2.0 shots per game over his last 5 matches and has 23 shots this season in 12 starts, resulting in 2 goals. He hasn't scored since early September, but his consistent involvement in Brentford's attack gives him a good chance to take advantage of Wolves' defensive struggles.
The lion's share of interest in Brentford this weekend will be on Ivan Toney ($18) -- and for good reason -- but Mbeumo has been a consistent starter alongside him and offers a sizeable salary discount. Mbeumo's odds to score (+310) are similar to Raheem Sterling's ($17; +300), and he should come at a far lower draft percentage.
Alex Iwobi, FWD/MID, Everton
FanDuel Salary: $16
Saturday's clash between Everton and Fulham is one of the more interesting fixtures on the slate. Fulham currently sit seventh on the league table, unbeaten in their last three, with two wins in a row. Everton ended their three-match losing streak with a three-goal victory over Crystal Palace last weekend, and the Toffees have been solid in defense, averaging just under a goal allowed per game this season, the fifth-best average in the Premier League.
Fulham's impressive results have come despite a defense that can't stop conceding goals. They have allowed an average of 1.8 goals per match this season, fourth-most in the league, including 13 in their last 6 matches. Those goals have come despite not playing a single big-six side during that period. Everton will have an excellent chance to capitalize on Fulham's struggles on Saturday, with Iwobi well-positioned to benefit.
Iwobi has scored more than 19.5 FanDuel points in four of his last six fixtures and produced two assists last weekend while operating at the center of Everton's 4-2-3-1 formation. He is on pace to shatter his combined goals and assists from his 28 starts last season and will now operate the heart of Everton's attack facing a Fulham side that allowed multiple goals to Leeds, Bournemouth, West Ham, Newcastle, and Nottingham Forest since the middle of September.