FanDuel Soccer: EPL DFS Helper for Wednesday 10/19/22
As always, we're covering FanDuel's main slate, and that kicks off at 10 a.m. EST on Saturday. All betting lines come from FanDuel Sportsbook and FoxBet, and they may change after the article is published.
Southampton (+165) at Bournemouth (+170)
Over 2.5 Goals: +108 | Most Likely to Score: Solanke (+200)
West Ham (+600) at Liverpool (-240)
Over 2.5 Goals: -190 | Most Likely to Score: Salah (-110)
Chelsea (-140) at Brentford (+380)
Over 2.5 Goals: -122 | Most Likely to Score: Aubameyang (+120)
Everton (+470) at Newcastle (-160)
Over 2.5 Goals: -116 | Most Likely to Score: Wilson (+125)
Tottenham (+180) at Manchester United (+145)
Over 2.5 Goals: -136 | Most Likely to Score: Ronaldo (+120)
Liverpool are the standout side on this five-match slate. Fresh off a win over Manchester City, the Reds host West Ham on Wednesday and are priced as -240 moneyline favorites. Liverpool are -250 to score at least two goals while no other side is better than -143 to score two-plus. If you want to stack, Liverpool are the side to load up on.
Mohamed Salah ($22; -110 to score/-210 to score or assist) has the slate's best goal and goal/assist odds. He netted a goal in the aforementioned win over City, which might kickstart him, and he'll be on penalties. The only negative with Salah is that he'll be super chalky.
Roberto Firmino ($21; +130;-150) and Darwin Nunez ($19; +105/-175) are fun pivots off Salah -- although they will be pretty popular, too -- or can be stacked alongside him. Fabio Carvalho ($12; +210/-115) might start in place of the injured Diogo Jota, giving us a quality value option.
We have three other big-six sides on the slate, and two of them -- Spurs and Manchester United -- are playing each other. It's hard to pinpoint how that game will play out, but oddsmakers see goals. The fixture owns second-best odds to go over 1.5 goals (-190), and both teams are long shots -- +250 for United and +310 for Spurs -- to keep a clean sheet.
On the United side, among expected starters, Marcus Rashford ($17; +230/+140), Bruno Fernandes ($17; +240/+110) and Antony ($20; +260/+225) are the most appealing. Rashford seems to have found his form, totaling three goals and two assists in eight EPL starts. Bruno might be on penalties if Cristiano Ronaldo ($16; +120/-115) isn't on the pitch. If Ronaldo starts, he's a fine play, too, and he might be out there if United opts to rotate the squad -- something that could happen all across this slate as sides cope with a busy fixture list.
For Spurs, it's the usual suspects -- Harry Kane ($20; +150/-115) and Son Heung-min ($18; +175/-110). Of Tottenham's 16.0 expected goals (xG) this season in league play, Son and Kane have combined for 10.0 of them, per FBRef. Kane's been in the better form between the two, scoring nine times in 10 starts, but we know what kind of ceiling Son has.
Chelsea are the other big-six side, and they're -140 to win at Brentford. The Blues -- who are -143 to score two-plus goals, tied for the second-best odds on the slate -- have won four straight across all competitions by a combined 10-0 score. Brentford, though, are no pushover, and they just toppled Brighton 2-0 and hammered Manchester United by a 4-0 scoreline earlier this season.
Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang ($19; +120/-130) has the top goal odds for Chelsea and has quickly established himself as the first choice at striker since arriving. Raheem Sterling ($18; +220/+115) and Mason Mount ($18; +280/+125) are also worth a look. Mount has been pushing forward more under Graham Potter, and it's resulted in him being a much better DFS asset of late as he's got two goals and two assists across his previous two EPL outings.
We shouldn't sleep on Newcastle. The Magpies are -160 to win at home against Everton, and they're -143 to score at least twice -- the same odds as Chelsea. Newcastle have been really good in several facets, but they're third in xG generated (18.1) behind only Arsenal and Man City. Taking on an Everton side that have shipped the third-most xG (17.0), Newcastle could roll.
Callum Wilson ($18; +125/-115) is the man up top for the Magpies, and he has by far the top goal odds among their probable starters. Bruno Guimaraes ($17; +350/+165) has been one of the EPL's premier players this campaign. Both Joe Willock ($12; +320/+200) and Joelinton ($13; +340/+200) are viable value picks.
Added time -- The Southampton-Bournemouth match is close to a toss-up. Dominic Solanke ($16; +210/+145) carries the match's best anytime goal odds. Che Adams ($16; +230/+130) has the best goal odds for the Saints. ... Harvey Elliott ($11; +270/+125) has serviceable goal/assist odds and has been a solid piece for Liverpool. He's a low-salary way to get in on the slate's biggest favorite. ... If he gets in the lineup, Christian Pulisic ($15; +230/+115) can get you modest-salaried exposure to Chelsea. ... Michail Antonio ($14; +320/+195) has the best goal odds for West Ham.
It's a good time to go after Liverpool full-backs Trent Alexander-Arnold ($14; +160 to score or assist) and Andrew Robertson ($10; +195). They are a little lower in salary than usual, especially Robertson, and public perception on Trent is as low as it's been in a while due to his defensive struggles. But TAA is still a world-class crosser and should be able to spend a lot of time in attacking areas versus West Ham -- assuming he gets back into the lineup.
I'll have my eyes on Chelsea's formation and where Marc Cucurella ($10; +320) and Ben Chilwell ($9; +330) line up. If either are at left wing-back, I'll be very interested.
Tottenham's Ivan Perisic ($11; +210) and Ryan Sessegnon ($9; +210) have superb goal/assist odds and might not be all that popular given the matchup with United.
Playing at Anfield, West Ham's center-backs offer nice floors at easy-to-like salaries. With Kurt Zouma ($10) and Craig Dawson ($8) looking iffy at best, Ben Johnson ($8) and Thilo Kehrer ($9) are listed as likely starters.
Added time -- Kieran Trippier ($15; +230) might slip through the cracks a bit despite a good matchup with Evertson, especially if Alexander-Arnold -- who is $1 less in salary -- starts for Liverpool. ... Everton's James Tarkowski ($13) has one of the highest floors on the slate. He's averaging 17.3 FanDuel points per game for the campaign and should be very active at Newcastle. ... Matt Targett ($8; +240) is an outstanding value target (sorry, had to) if he's at full-back for Newcastle.
Alisson ($13), Kepa Arrizabalaga ($12) and Nick Pope ($12) have the best win odds and the top clean-sheet odds. I'll get my keeper from this group in the vast majority of my lineups.
Of the three, Pope is the one I'm most into. He's facing an Everton side that has tallied only eight goals in 10 EPL matches. Pope is +125 to keep a clean sheet, the best odds among all of this slate's keepers, and his -160 win odds are second-best.
It's easy to make a case for Alisson, too. Liverpool are -240 to win, and he's +145 to blank West Ham. Liverpool's defense was good in last weekend's win over City, limiting City to just 1.0 xG.
Kepa figures to be the least popular of these three and has the worst matchup of the three, but he's rolling right now. Chelsea have kept four straight clean sheets, and Kepa was outstanding in a seven-save clean-sheet performance last weekend at Villa.
Of the rest, I think I like Lukasz Fabianski ($7) the best once you factor in salary. Yes, a matchup at Liverpool could go really badly for him, but the Reds are short-handed in attack -- both Luis Diaz and Diogo Jota are out -- and just haven't been as great as usual going forward. Using Fabianski gives you a lot of salary for the rest of your lineup.
Added time -- I don't hate the idea of taking a stab at either Hugo Lloris ($9) or David de Gea ($11) in the Spurs-United game. I probably won't go here much, but I prefer DDG between the two of them. ... Neto ($10) and Gavin Bazunu ($10) are decent options in the Bournemouth-Southampton fixture. Neither side is that good going forward, but they're not that good defensively, either. I could see this being a low-scoring affair.