FanDuel Soccer: EPL DFS Helper for 9/3/22
As always, we're covering FanDuel's main slate, and that kicks off at 10 a.m. EST on Saturday. All betting lines come from FanDuel Sportsbook and FoxBet, and they may change after the article is published.
West Ham (+500) at Chelsea (-195)
Over 2.5 Goals: -140 | Most Likely to Score: Havertz (+165)
Fulham (+550) at Tottenham (-210)
Over 2.5 Goals: -154 | Most Likely to Score: Kane/Son (-120)
Leeds (+230) at Brentford (+110)
Over 2.5 Goals: -130 | Most Likely to Score: Toney (+120)
Southampton (+230) at Wolves (+120)
Over 2.5 Goals: -104 | Most Likely to Score: Jimenez (+140)
Crystal Palace (+280) at Newcastle (-105)
Over 2.5 Goals: +102 | Most Likely to Score: Isak/Wood (+175)
Bournemouth (+280) at Nottingham Forest (+100)
Over 2.5 Goals: +104 | Most Likely to Score: Dennis (+175)
Manchester City (-290) at Aston Villa (+650)
Over 2.5 Goals: -182 | Most Likely to Score: Haaland (-160)
We've got a seven-match main slate on our hands, so there are plenty of paths to take. Manchester City (-290 to win), Spurs (-210), and Chelsea (-195) are the three big favorites, and that's where the masses will get their attackers.
Per a study I did a while back, it's best to stack teams that are at least -233 to win. City are the only side that clears that bar, so let's start with them.
City are pouring in goals, scoring at least three in four straight games. Playing away at Villa won't be a breeze, but City have scored a combined six goals in away matches at Newcastle and West Ham so far this campaign. Plus, the Villans haven't been good this year, allowing at least 2.7 expected goals (xG), per FBRef, in two separate matches (Palace and Arsenal). In all, City are -250 to score at least two goals and +115 to get three-plus -- both of which are slate-leading clips.
You may have heard -- Erling Haaland ($24; -160 to score/-250 to assist or score) has taken a liking to life in the Premier League. He has a whopping nine goals through five matches, including two straight hat tricks. He's quickly proven to have the best ceiling in EPL DFS, and Haaland -- who is on penalties -- is a terrifying fade with how many chances he earns. While it's not fun to swallow chalk, particularly on a seven-match slate, Haaland's goal odds and form are out of this world.
Kevin De Bruyne ($21; +175/-165) came off the bench midweek, so he should be rested and ready for this one. He's an intriguing pivot off Haaland. Julian Alvarez ($18; +110/-160), Phil Foden ($19; +190/-105), and Riyad Mahrez ($17 +115/-145) are superb options, as well, if they start. One thing to note with City on this slate is that they're in the lone late match, so we won't know their starting lineup when the other six matches lock.
Tottenham are the other side I want to make sure I get exposure to. They're hosting Fulham and are -200 to score over 1.5 goals, the second-best odds on the slate. Fulham have started well in their return to the top flight, but they've been open defensively, permitting the fourth-most xG (8.2). Spurs have the firepower to light up the scoreboard.
Harry Kane ($22; -120/-210) and Son Heung-min ($19; -120/-240) are the obvious top plays from Spurs. Kane handles pens and has netted four goals through five league matches. He's also tallied at least two chances created in four of five appearances. Son has yet to open his goal account this season. He could get off the mark in a big way against Fulham. Dejan Kulusevski ($18; +190/-130) is a way to get a piece of Tottenham while avoiding the popularity of Kane and Son.
Chelsea are sizable home favorites over West Ham and are -182 to score at least twice. They've sputtered to start the year, but this is a team with big-time talent. They'll snap out of it eventually, and it could come against a West Ham side that has conceded the seventh-most xG (7.6). The Blues' poor form might cause them to go a tad overlooked in this one. Kai Havertz ($16; +165/-105) and Raheem Sterling ($19; +190/-110) are the main draws for Chelsea.
Among the rest of the sides and players, Newcastle's Alexander Isak ($17; +175/+105), Brentford's Ivan Toney ($18; +120/-145), and Wolves' Raul Jimenez ($16; +140/-130) stand out for me.
Isak was outstanding midweek in his debut for the Magpies, scoring once and having another goal ruled out on a narrow offside call -- and that came in a brutal matchup at Anfield. At home versus Palace, Isak can deliver. Toney, who gets a home date with Leeds, owns the best goal-or-assist odds outside of this slate's big three teams, and Brentford have the best odds of scoring at least twice (-111) outside of those three sides. The goal and goal-or-assist odds are pretty nice for Jimenez for his home clash with the Saints.
Added time -- Aleksandar Mitrovic ($20; +190/+145) just keeps scoring. He's up to five goals on the year and takes pens. Despite a tough matchup at Spurs, he's a fun leverage play off the other guys who are around him in salary, most of whom play for one of the favorites. ... Mason Mount ($17; +240/+105) has been quiet this season and might slip through the cracks on this slate. ... Patrick Bamford ($16; +175/+115) has nice goal and goal-or-assist odds if he can return from his injury. ... Pedro Neto ($15; +320/+160) is a decent salary-saving option for a Wolves side that oddsmakers like.
On a slate this big, there will be goals, and you need those goals to take down a tournament. I want to save salary at defender to get the attackers I want. For me, that means looking to high-floor center-backs who have lower salaries.
Aston Villa give us two such options -- Tyrone Mings ($10) and Ezri Konsa ($8). Playing Man City, Mings and Konsa should be extremely busy. In a similar kind of matchup at Arsenal last time out, Mings totaled 15.6 FanDuel points -- all from defensive actions. He's someone I'll have plenty of on Saturday. In said Arsenal fixture, Konsa finished with 7.8 FanDuel points. Jan Bednarek ($10) would have a similar appeal if he starts.
Tosin Adarabioyo ($10) of Fulham and West Ham's duo of Thilo Kehrer ($9) and Kurt Zouma ($10) fit that same mold, as well.
On the opposite end of things, we have a few high-upside full-backs from which to choose if you want to prioritize spending salary at defender.
Chelsea's Reece James ($15; +180 to assist or score) is always a top-shelf option, and he should have chances to get forward versus West Ham. His goal-or-assist odds are up there with those of some quality attackers.
Tottenham's Ivan Perisic ($12; +105) has sublime goal-or-assist odds and a modest salary. He'll be able to bomb forward against Fulham and is a great stacking partner with Kane or Son.
Joao Cancelo ($14; +200) scored a sweet goal last week and is always a threat, but he hasn't pushed quite as far forward this year as he has in the past, sometimes sitting as almost a holding midfielder. It's resulted in only three chances created through five matches. I'll probably stay away until his salary falls or he gets back to last season's marauding role.
Added time -- Kieran Trippier ($14) is handling set-piece and free-kick duties for Newcastle. That helps his floor and ceiling in DFS. He's scored at least 15.4 FanDuel points in four of five outings. ... Kyle Walker ($7) and Aaron Hickey ($7) are the lowest-salaried expected starters. They're low-floor punts. I'd much rather find the extra $1 for Konsa. ... Marc Guehl ($9) is on my radar as a possible high-floor play. I could see Palace being under the cosh at Newcastle.
All the goalies with the best win odds and the top clean-sheet chances come with the highest salaries.
Ederson ($14), Hugo Lloris ($13) and Edouard Mendy ($12) all have a good shot to win. It's actually Mendy who boasts the top clean-sheet odds (+115) while Ederson and Lloris are +120 and +125, respectively, to keep a clean sheet. The betting numbers and salary make Mendy appealing. On the flip side, he hasn't played all that well this year, and neither have Chelsea. With all that said, he's my pick of the lot from this trio.
The Bournemouth-Forest and Newcastle-Palace fixtures are both plus-money to go over 2.5 goals, so they're good places to go clean-sheet hunting. Nick Pope ($12) and Dean Henderson ($12) are tied for the best clean-sheet chances (+170) outside of the aforementioned three big favorites. Pope (-105) has slightly better win odds than Henderson (+100) does, but I side with Henderson at home against a Cherries side that has a measly 1.8 xG thus far -- although they've had a tough schedule.
Neto ($8) is a serviceable value play. He's opposite Henderson in what should be a low-scoring affair between Forest and the Cherries. Both of these sides desperately need points, which may lead to a cagey affair.
Added time -- Josa Sa ($11) is +180 to blank Southampton. Despite scoring seven goals this season, the Saints have posted only 4.7 xG, and Wolves have been stout defensively, shipping just four goals. If I roster him, I'll pair him with Neto or Jimenez. ... David Raya ($11) has blah clean-sheet odds (+215) but fine win odds (+110) at home versus Leeds. It makes sense to stack Raya and Toney if you use Raya. ... Emiliano Martinez ($6) is more talented than the usual clearance-rack keepers. Villa are in poor form and might get bulldozed by City, but I could see them making a fist of it. Martinez has the potential for gobs of save volume.