FanDuel Soccer: EPL DFS Helper for Tuesday 8/30/22
Brentford (+260) at Crystal Palace (+110)
Over 2.5 Goals: +102 | Most Likely to Score: Mateta (+160)
Brighton (+125) at Fulham (+230)
Over 2.5 Goals: +104 | Most Likely to Score: Mitrovic (+145)
Chelsea (-175) at Southampton (+470)
Over 2.5 Goals: -148 | Most Likely to Score: Havertz (+165)
Everton (+240) at Leeds (+110)
Over 2.5 Goals: -118 | Most Likely to Score: Bamford (+130)
This is a blah four-match slate. There might not be many goals as half of the matches are plus-money to see more than 2.5 goals.
Chelsea are the clear standout side. Not only are the Blues by far the biggest favorite (-148 to win), they are in the match with the best odds of going over 2.5 goals (-148) and are a slate-high -175 to score at least twice. The downside worth Chelsea is they're not in great form and will surely be chalk. But the Blues have the talent to smash Southampton if they're on their game.
Kai Havertz ($18; +165 to score a goal/-105 to score or assist) has the Blues' top goal odds and might not be super popular due to his slow start. While Havertz has no goals, no assists, and only two shots on target through four games, he'll likely be the starting number-nine for a side that could net a few goals. Raheem Sterling ($22; +195/-110) figures to be one of the slate's most popular options after bagging two goals last weekend.
Mason Mount ($20; +240/+105) has lost some of his corner and free-kick duties this year, dinging his DFS outlook. The goal and goal-or-assist odds aren't great for someone with his salary, but he should notch a few chances created and makes sense as a stacking partner with Havertz or Sterling if you want a high-upside pairing. Christian Pulisic ($16; +200/+100) and Hakim Ziyech ($13; +220/-110) would be superb point-per-dollar options if they start.
No other side is better than +110 to win. Of the remaining bunch, Leeds (+110) are the side I most want exposure to for their home matchup with Everton. The Toffees have permitted the third-most expected goals (xG), per FBRef, allowing 7.1 through four matches. They just conceded 2.8 xG away to Brentford, and while Leeds are only +105 to score more than 1.5 goals, that's the second-best clip on the slate, which says a lot about this slate.
Patrick Bamford ($15; +135/-115) hasn't yet been ruled out. His possible return from injury is something to monitor when lineups come out on Tuesday. Bamford would give Leeds' attacking outlook a lift and also slot in as a fantastic midrange play in a friendly matchup. His anytime goal odds pace the slate, as do his goal-or-assist odds. Jack Harrison ($17; +420/+195), Rodrigo ($18; +260/+140) and Brenden Aaronson ($14; +390/+160) are other viable options from Leeds.
Brighton -- who are +120 to score two-plus goals -- are slight +125 road favorites at Fulham. Brighton's +2.1 expected goal differential is the fifth-best mark in the league, so their hot start is mostly legit. They're just a nightmare to target in DFS because none of their expected starters have better goal odds than +240. Danny Welbeck ($16; +240/+170) leads the way in terms of goal odds for the Seagulls.
Palace are also a slim favorite, listed at +110 to win at home versus Brentford. Eberechi Eze ($15; +380/+185) is handling a lot of set-piece work and has already notched two assists this season (one apiece against City and Liverpool no less). Wilfried Zaha ($19; +190/+100) -- who looks questionable due to an injury -- has the best goal-or-assist odds for Palace while Jean-Philippe Mateta ($14; +160/+110) sports the best goal odds.
Added time -- Aleksandar Mitrovic ($20; +145/+105) is the best option from an underdog. Mitrovic has four goals through three matches and is averaging 34.6 FanDuel points per game thus far. ... Ivan Toney ($19; +195/+125) has solid goal odds at Palace. Prior to a dud against Everton last time out, Toney had tallied two goals and two assists through the first three matches .. Jorginho ($14; +360/+220) is a dart throw at a penalty goal, as always.
Chelsea's Reece James ($15; +180 goal or assist) is the top choice at defender, and he's a great stacking partner with a Blues attacker. This match has the potential to be an open affair, and that would suit James perfectly. He's been excellent to start the year, scoring at least 18.2 FanDuel points in all four matches.
Marc Cucurella ($13; +290) has been starting at left-back for Chelsea. He's a fine option if he's in there again, but Ben Chilwell ($11; +250) would be an even better pick at a lower salary if he gets a start, which might happen due to the quick turnaround.
On the flip side of that game, Southampton's Armel Bella-Kotchap ($12) and Mohammed Salisu ($11) are high-floor plays as center-backs who should be very busy. They've each scored at least 9.1 FanDuel points in every game they've started this campaign.
James Tarkowski ($14) was a high-floor player in his days at Burnley. He's been the same guy so far with Everton. Not counting a soft home matchup against Forest, Tarkowski has scored 25.8, 13.8 and 23.4 FanDuel points in his other three matches. He figures to be busy once again at Leeds.
Added time -- Pascal Struijk ($12) is averaging 17.2 FanDuel points per game this season for Leeds. He should have chances to get forward versus Everton. ... Palace should give us a value full-back if Tyrick Mitchell ($12) isn't able to play after coming off injured on Saturday. Chris Richards ($7) or Nathaniel Clyne ($8) could take his place.
If you're after the win bonus, find the salary for Edouard Mendy ($14).
He's got by far the best win odds (-175) and also has the best clean-sheet chances (+150). He's just hard to feel great about right now. Mendy has conceded six times over the Blues' past three games as a mixture of his meh play and Chelsea's wobbly form have crushed his DFS outputs. But facing a Saints side that has mustered the sixth-fewest xG (3.9), Mendy can notch a clean-sheet win in this spot.
In my eyes, Vicente Guaita ($12), Illan Meslier ($11) and Robert Sanchez ($10) all have just as much appeal as Mendy and come at lower salaries.
Guaita is +175 to keep a clean sheet, the second-best odds, and is +110 to win. Meslier has the same +110 win odds but is just +205 to blank Everton. Sanchez is +125 to win and +175 to get a clean sheet. Of the trio, I side with Sanchez due to how stiff Brighton have been on defense (fourth-fewest xG allowed), although I view all three similarly and would be happy with any of them.
Added time -- I'm always a little bit interested in using keepers against Brighton because the Seagulls have a history of creating lots of chances and struggling to finish them. That hasn't been as big of a deal thus far in 2022-23 (6.1 xG and five goals for Brighton), but Bernd Leno ($10) makes some sense on this slate. Salaried the same as Sanchez, Leno probably won't see much love, and he could have a nice day. ... Jordan Pickford ($8) is a bet-on-talent dart throw. If I need the salary savings, I might risk it, especially if Bamford remains out.