FanDuel Soccer: EPL DFS Under-the-Radar Plays for 8/13/22
If you have played daily fantasy sports for a while, you know the importance of being contrarian in large-field tournaments. Recognizing which players are going to be popular and finding others who you think have a similar point projection but will be much less popular can separate you from your opponents.
The same goes for EPL DFS. Even though the large-field tournaments aren't quite as large as they are for other sports, there is still value in identifying quality under-the-radar plays.
This article will discuss FanDuel's main Saturday slate, which starts at 10:00 a.m. EST and features six matches. All betting lines come from EPL odds, and they may change after the article is published.
Leicester City (+500) at Arsenal (-185)
Over 2.5 Goals: -148 | Most Likely to Score: Jesus (+115)
Fulham (+210) at Wolves (+135)
Over 2.5 Goals: +106 | Most Likely to Score: Mitrovic (+140)
Newcastle (+210) at Brighton (+140)
Over 2.5 Goals: +122 | Most Likely to Score: Wilson (+190)
Bournemouth (+3500) at Manchester City (-1400)
Over 2.5 Goals: -320 | Most Likely to Score: Haaland (-280)
Leeds (+200) at Southampton (+130)
Over 2.5 Goals: -140 | Most Likely to Score: Bamford (+155)
Manchester United (+100) at Brentford (+280)
Over 2.5 Goals: -128 | Most Likely to Score: Ronaldo (+110)
Matchweek 2 features three big-six sides, with Manchester City, Arsenal, and Manchester United in action on a six-game Saturday main slate.
Manchester City (-1400 to win) are the largest favorite on the slate by a wide margin, and Erling Haaland ($23) has the best odds to score (-280) of anyone expected to be active on Sunday.
Arsenal (-185 to win) are the second-biggest favorite, followed by Manchester United (+100 to win) in third. Southampton (+130 to win), Wolves (+135 to win), and Brighton (+140 to win) round out the slate.
All eyes will be on Haaland and Manchester City as they look to build on their momentum following last weekend's win over West Ham. With City facing a Bournemouth side that are the favorites to be relegated (-180), fading them is a risky move this weekend. In lineups opting to exclude Haaland, consider including Phil Foden ($21) and/or Jack Grealish ($19) to maintain exposure to the defending champions. Expect Arsenal to be the second-most-popular side following their opening-week win, while Manchester United go overlooked as they continue to struggle.
With that in mind, here are three players to consider -- especially for tournament formats -- who may fly under the radar.
Ivan Toney, FWD/MID, Brentford
FanDuel Salary: $17
Until Manchester United prove they have finally fixed the defensive issues that have plagued them for nearly an entire year, the striker facing them deserves consideration for large-field tournaments. In their opening week loss to Brighton, United managed just 12 tackles, tied for fifth-fewest in the league, and surrendered eight shots inside the penalty box and two inside the six-yard box. Manager Erik ten Hag may eventually get them where they need to be, but until we see it, they aren't there yet.
Toney scored in Brentford's opening draw with Leicester City and recorded 28.6 FanDuel points. He finished last season with the 11th-most goals in the Premier League, and the 5th-most shots per game. He is well positioned to exploit United's dysfunctional defense on Saturday.
With the masses focusing on Manchester City's stars, Toney should see a lower draft percentage. The presence of Marcus Rashford ($17), Jadon Sancho ($18), Bukayo Saka ($17), and Aleksander Mitrovic ($18) in his salary range should further suppress his draft percentage. He's a sweet GPP play.
Morgan Gibbs-White, FWD/MID, Wolves
FanDuel Salary: $13
Fulham could be a popular side this weekend following their shocking draw with Liverpool. Mitrovic's 50.8 FanDuel points in that draw should make him a popular option on Saturday, and the combination of those two factors should lead to Wolves going overlooked.
While Fulham's performance was impressive, until we have a larger sample size, we can't just assume a draw with Liverpool is the expectation and not an outlier. Wolves were a very strong defensive side last season, conceding 43 goals, the fifth-fewest in the Premier League. While the limelight is on Fulham, Wolves are well positioned to get their first win of the season at home on Saturday.
Gibbs-White recorded 12 goals and 10 assists in 37 appearances on loan with Sheffield United last season. Back with Wolves, he opened his season playing the full 90 minutes against Leeds, registering a shot on goal and a chance created while splitting set-piece duties with Pedro Neto ($16).
Operating at the center of Wolves' attack, Gibbs-White could provide value on his low salary as an under-the-radar option this weekend, and he can help you jam in City's high-salary studs.
Brenden Aaronson, FWD/MID, Leeds
FanDuel Salary: $15
Taking Wolves' defensive record from last season into consideration, Leeds' opening-week victory in which they scored twice (one own-goal) looks even more impressive. Now they will face a Southampton side that started strong against Tottenham before ultimately conceding four goals.
Aaronson played 85 minutes in his Premier League debut, recording 1 shot and 5 crosses, resulting in just 2.6 FanDuel points. His teammate, Jack Harrison ($16), was far more impactful, recording an assist and creating seven chances, and should be a popular option this weekend. As he grows more comfortable at Leeds and in the Premier League in general, Aaronson's production should increase.
Aaronson's odds to score (+500) are only slightly worse than Harrison's (+480). His 2.6 FanDuel-point debut, contrasted against Harrison's sttrong opening performance, provides an opportunity to select the American this weekend at a reduced draft percentage relative to his outlook.