FanDuel Soccer: EPL DFS Helper for 8/13/22
As always, we're covering FanDuel's main slate, and that kicks off at 10 a.m. EST on Saturday.
Newcastle (+200) at Brighton (+145)
Over 2.5 Goals: +118 | Most Likely to Score: Wilson (+195)
Leicester (+550) at Arsenal (-220)
Over 2.5 Goals: -150 | Most Likely to Score: Jesus (+110)
Bournemouth (+3900) at Manchester City (-1450)
Over 2.5 Goals: -290 | Most Likely to Score: Haaland (-270)
Leeds (+210) at Southampton (+125)
Over 2.5 Goals: -142 | Most Likely to Score: Bamford (+160)
Fulham (+210) at Wolves (+135)
Over 2.5 Goals: +112 | Most Likely to Score: Mitrovic (+150)
Manchester United (-105) at Brentford (+290)
Over 2.5 Goals: -122 | Most Likely to Score: Ronaldo (+105)
All betting lines come from EPL odds, and they may change after the article is published.
This is a six-match slate that features a lot of fairly even matchups -- with one glaring exception.
Manchester City are a laughable -1450 home favorite against promoted Bournemouth. City are -210 to score at least three goals and have better odds to score four-plus (+135) than Bournemouth do to score once (+160). It'll likely be a bloodbath, and as is almost always the case when City are huge favorites, everyone in an attacking spot for them is worth playing.
But something that's different for City this year is that they have one standout goal threat in Erling Haaland ($23; -270 anytime goal odds). Haaland started with a bang last week, scoring twice at West Ham in a much tougher matchup than this one. One of his goals was a penalty, and assuming he holds that role all year (and stays healthy), Haaland might score 30-plus goals this campaign. He has an astronomical ceiling in a match where City should create a boatload of chances.
City have plenty of other quality options who fit as stacking pieces alongside the Norwegian or can be used in City stacks that fade the surely chalky Haaland. Kevin De Bruyne ($22; +115) is -280 to get a goal or assist. Phil Foden ($21; +125), Ilkay Gundogan ($15; +185) and Jack Grealish ($19; +200) are high-upside options, as well, with Gundogan's salary coming in handy. Even on a six-match slate, you can make a strong case for dedicating three attacking slots to Cityzens.
After City, Arsenal are the other sizable favorite. That the Gunners are a -220 favorite against a solid Leicester team is a sign that oddsmakers are buying into all the good vibes around the Gunners right now (in addition to some concern about Leicester). The -220 moneyline odds don't quite hit the -233 clip we're seeking when looking for stackable sides.
After an active transfer window and an impressive preseason, Arsenal picked up a 2-0 opening-night win at Palace, and they are -210 to score at least two goals on Saturday. Gabriel Jesus ($19; +110), Bukayo Saka ($17; +155) and Gabriel Martinelli ($16; +185) boast the top goal odds for Arsenal.
The masses will likely devote at least three -- maybe four -- attacking positions to City and Arsenal players, so attackers from any other side will be at least somewhat contrarian.
Manchester United are -105 to win at Brentford, and that's the third-best win odds on the slate. It's tough to get excited about United, but if Cristiano Ronaldo ($20; +150) starts, this shapes up as one of the rare times when we can roster Ronaldo at anything other than immense popularity.
The tricky thing about it, though -- other than United possibly being bad again -- is that the Red Devils play the late game, and Ronaldo isn't a lock to start. So, if you budget $20 for him and he doesn't start, you can leave him in and hope he comes on later or pivot to someone like Bruno Fernandes ($19; +105) or Ivan Toney ($17; +190). It's kind of annoying, but the upside of getting a not-super-popular CR7 against Brentford is very enticing.
All of the other matches are tight ones. The Southampton-Leeds match stands out as a sneaky-good place to look for goals. It is -142 to go over 2.5 goals, the third-highest odds of the day. Hitting on a goal from this match (or any goal outside of City and Arsenal) can be big for GPPs. Leeds' Patrick Bamford ($17; +160) has the match's top goal odds. James Ward-Prowse ($18; +290) is a set-piece maven, and Adam Armstrong ($14; +175) is a decent value target.
Added time -- After a historic season in the Championship last year, Aleksandar Mitrovic ($18; +150) started this campaign with a brace against Liverpool. He has by far the best anytime goal odds in the Wolves-Fulham match. ... Newcastle-Brighton is a fun real-life matchup but blah for DFS as it's +118 to go over 2.5 goals. Callum Wilson ($18; +195) has the game's top goal odds. ... Rodri ($12; +650) isn't a bad shout. City's pivot will probably have more chances than normal to push forward versus the Cherries. ... Julian Alvarez ($17; -145) has City's second-best goal odds and is a fantastic option if he's handed his first start ... Jamie Vardy ($17; +200) has the pace to hurt Arsenal on the counter and won't be in hardly any lineups.
If you're going to stack City's top players, you'll need to save salary somewhere, and for me, that somewhere will be at defender. I'll use two low-salary defenders in the majority of my lineups.
Bournemouth's back line should be under siege at City, giving their defenders high floors. Adam Smith ($9) and Jordan Zemura ($8) started at wing-back for the Cherries in Matchweek 1. Zerma scored 9.1 FanDuel points from solely defensive actions in the opener and will likely have to do a whole lot more defensively in this one.
Leicester are another place to look for low-salary defenders with good floors. Daniel Amartey ($7), Jonny Evans ($8) and Wesley Fofana ($9) started at center-back for the Foxes in their first match. Fofana totaled 11.7 FanDuel points in that one and will be needed often against the Gunners.
On the opposite end of the spectrum, Joao Cancelo ($15; +130 to score or assist) and Oleksandr Zinchenko ($14; +330) offer upside as attack-minded full-backs. Cancelo typically plays almost a central midfield position when City are dominating possession, which will be the case Saturday. Zinchenko notched an assist in his Arsenal debut and could thrive in what might be a pretty open affair versus Leicester.
Added time -- Newcastle's trio of Kieran Trippier ($14), Fabian Schar ($14) and Dan Burn ($13) all scored at least 18.8 FanDuel points last week. The game at Brighton is a much tougher spot, but they are worth a look. ... Kyle Walker ($7) doesn't push forward much for City, but he's $7 and likely plays the full 90 minutes, giving him a chance to get the five-point clean-sheet bonus. ... Jonny ($9) is capable of a good fantasy day at home against Fulham.
If you're after a win and clean-sheet bonus, find the salary for Ederson ($15). City's keeper is -220 to keep a clean sheet and -1450 to win. He can get 17.0 FanDuel points with a clean-sheet win before factoring in saves. The negatives with Ederson are that he's $15, using him limits you to just three outfield City players and there will surely be very little save volume to fall back on if he does concede a goal.
Everything I just said about Ederson also applies to Aaron Ramsdale ($13) but in a less drastic way. His win (-220) and clean-sheet chances (+132) are nice, though not nearly as great as Ederson's. With that said, he'll probably be called into action more than the Brazilian is, so if Arsenal do allow a goal, Ramsdale could still have a serviceable fantasy day.
Jose Sa ($11) and Robert Sanchez ($10) have the best clean-sheet odds after those two, with each coming it at +192 to blank their opponent. Sanchez plays for a Brighton team that's had a really good defense for two years running, and Newcastle has the firepower to keep him busy. Sa gets promoted Fulham at home. Wolves didn't look so hot last week while the Cottagers played well. I prefer Sanchez between the two.
Added time -- If you want to save salary at keeper and don't mind getting weird, Mark Travers ($6) is the lowest-salaried expected starter and will get bombarded by City. If he can keep the damage to two or three goals, Travers could post a decent fantasy score due to immense save volume. ... Nick Pope ($10) intrigues me. Brighton will create chances, which gives him the potential for save volume, but they are prone to struggling to convert said chances.