FanDuel Soccer: EPL DFS Under-the-Radar Plays for 5/22/22
If you have played daily fantasy sports for a while, you know the importance of being contrarian in large-field tournaments. Recognizing which players are going to be popular and finding others who you think have a similar point projection but will be much less popular can separate you from your opponents.
The same goes for EPL DFS. Even though the large-field tournaments aren't quite as large as they are for other sports, there is still value in identifying quality under-the-radar plays.
This article will discuss FanDuel's main Sunday slate, which starts at 11:00 a.m. EST and features ten matches. All betting lines come from FanDuel Sportsbook, and they may change after the article is published.
Wolves (+1600) at Liverpool (-650)
Over 2.5 Goals: -230 | Most Likely to Score: Salah (-150)
Manchester United (+125) at Crystal Palace (+210)
Over 2.5 Goals: -136 | Most Likely to Score: Ronaldo (+105)
Leeds (+175) at Brentford (+140)
Over 2.5 Goals: -162 | Most Likely to Score: Toney (+105)
Newcastle (+230) at Burnley (+125)
Over 2.5 Goals: -106 | Most Likely to Score: Weghorst (+115)
Watford (+1700) at Chelsea (-650)
Over 2.5 Goals: -225 | Most Likely to Score: Lukaku (-125)
Everton (+800) at Arsenal (-280)
Over 2.5 Goals: -172 | Most Likely to Score: Lacazette/Nketiah (+100)
West Ham (+190) at Brighton (+135)
Over 2.5 Goals: -128 | Most Likely to Score: Maupay (+140)
Tottenham (-410) at Norwich (+1000)
Over 2.5 Goals: -225 | Most Likely to Score: Kane (-170)
Southampton (+280) at Leicester City (-120)
Over 2.5 Goals: -170 | Most Likely to Score: Vardy (-120)
Aston Villa (+1700) at Manchester City (-650)
Over 2.5 Goals: -240 | Most Likely to Score: Mahrez (-110)
Matchweek 38 features all twenty sides as the 2021-22 Premier League season reaches its thrilling conclusion.
All eyes will be on the top of the table as Manchester City looks to secure the title with a win. If they fail to do so, Liverpool can claim the crown with a win of their own. Elsewhere, Tottenham can secure a top-four finish with a win or draw against Norwich, while Arsenal will need to defeat Everton and have Tottenham lose to sneak into fourth. At the bottom of the table, Leeds and Burnley sit even on points as they race to avoid joining Norwich and Watford in relegation.
Manchester City, Chelsea and Liverpool (-650 to win) are the three largest favorites on the slate, and Harry Kane ($20) has the best odds to score (-170) of anyone expected to be active on Sunday.
Tottenham (-410 to win) is the fourth-biggest favorite, followed by Arsenal (-280 to win) in fifth. Leicester City (-120 to win), Manchester United (+125 to win), Burnley (+125 to win), Brighton (+135 to win), and Brentford (+140 to win) round out the slate.
Teams with something to play for will likely field their usual starters, but sides with nothing on the line may look to the future and rotate heavily as they prepare for next season. That squad rotation could lead to a large number of value options on big-six sides.
With that in mind, here are three players to consider -- especially for tournament formats -- who may fly under the radar.
Bruno Fernandes, FWD/MID, Manchester United
FanDuel Salary: $19
Fernandes will never fly completely under the radar, but a combination of circumstances may make him a somewhat forgotten man at the top of the player pool this weekend. With all twenty sides in action and Liverpool, Manchester City, Norwich, and Arsenal all in excellent matchups with something left to play for, Manchester United should be an afterthought and they limp across the finish line on another disappointing season.
Despite United's struggles, there is some reason for optimism for a productive final match. New manager Erik ten Hag will be in attendance, which can provide some motivation to a team that has had very little for weeks. Additionally, Crystal Palace is operating on an incredibly short turnaround after losing to Everton on Thursday, while United is well-rested, having last played on May 7th.
Fernandes' ability needs no introduction. He is a world-class player who consistently produces FanDuel points, only twice failing to produce double double-digits in his last nineteen starts. On the season, he is averaging 21.2 FanDuel points per match and has played at least 84 minutes in 18 of his last 19 starts.
There is also a chance that this is Cristiano Ronaldo's ($20) final game in a United shirt, and the combination of the two is an interesting high-salaried pivot off the stars from the big-six sides who still have something to play for.
Dejan Kulusevski, FWD/MID, Tottenham
FanDuel Salary: $17
The sheer number of players available at all levels of the player pool should reduce draft percentage across the board as interest is spread out over the numerous options available. Kulusevski will benefit from that, but he will also benefit from the additional interest generated by Tottenham's dynamic duo of Harry Kane and Son Heung-Min ($21).
Tottenham is motivated and in an excellent position facing a Norwich side that has conceded a league-worst 79 goals this season. Kane and Son will be popular, but Kulusevski can take advantage of the match-up at a lower draft percentage while providing leverage from his teammates.
He enters Sunday in a bit of a slump, with FanDuel point totals of 3.9, 5.0, 8.2, and 1.3 in his last four starts but is capable of ceiling performances. In a nine-game stretch from February to April, he scored over twenty FanDuel points six times. While all eyes are on Kane and Son, considering gaining exposure to Tottenham through Kulusevski for large-field tournaments this weekend.
Bruno Guimaraes, FWD/MID, Newcastle
FanDuel Salary: $15
Guimaraes has been a revelation for Newcastle since he arrived from Lyon in January. After a string of appearances as a substitute, he made his first start in March. In 10 starts since, he has only failed to score double-digit FanDuel points once. He has FanDuel point totals of 35.1, 12.1, 11.5, 33.8, 25.8, and 60.8 over his last six starts, with a combined 4 goals, 1 assist, 10 shots, 8 shots on goal, and 8 chances created during that stretch.
With a salary of $15, Guimaraes falls squarely into the midrange of the player pool this weekend, which should further reduce his draft percentage if the majority of lineups opt for a stars and value options approach.
Newcastle will face tough competition from Burnley on Sunday as they look to secure a win and avoid relegation, but they are more than capable of passing this test. They have four wins in their last six and just played spoiler to Arsenal's chances of a top-four finish by defeating them by two goals on Monday.