FanDuel Soccer: EPL DFS Helper for 4/2/22
As always, we're covering FanDuel's main slate, and that kicks off at 10 a.m. EST on Saturday.
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Manchester City stand out as the best team to stack on this slate. The Cityzens are on the road at Burnley. City have netted at least two goals in six straight matches versus the Clarets, and they have tallied at least 2.0 expected goals (xG), per FBRef, in five of their last eight matches across all competitions. With City in a tight title race, one where goal difference could end up mattering, Pep Guardiola's bunch should be firing on all cylinders at Turf Moor.
With City likely to see a ton of the ball, Kevin De Bruyne ($21) will have plenty of opportunities to create chances, making him an elite option. But as is usually the case with City, you can feel good rostering anyone who starts in a midfield or forward spot outside of whoever plays in the holding role. Riyad Mahrez ($19) has been their first-choice penalty taker. Phil Foden ($18), Jack Grealish ($17) and Bernardo Silva ($17) are excellent options at their salaries. Foden, KDB and Mahrez have all contributed on corners.
After City, Chelsea are in the best spot as the Blues host Brentford. The Bees have allowed at least 2.0 xG in each of their last four outings versus big-six sides, although Chelsea generated just 0.3 xG at Brentford in the reverse fixture earlier this campaign.
Chelsea have a wide array of attacking options from which to choose. Kai Havertz ($18) is listed as an expected starter at striker, but it could just as easily be Romelu Lukaku ($18). Havertz is coming into his own of late, scoring five times over his past six matches and putting 11 shots on target in that time. Christian Pulisic ($17) notched a hat trick for the US during the international break and had a goal and assist on his way to 32.6 FanDuel points in his most recent EPL start. Mason Mount ($20) leads the Blues in both goals (eight) and assists (seven) in league play.
All that's left for Manchester United this year is the race for the top four. They need all the points they can get, so they should be in top gear at home versus Leicester. Cristiano Ronaldo ($20) flashed his otherworldly ceiling with 72.6 FanDuel points in a hat trick against Spurs in his last league outing, but that was just his second time with more than 20.0 FanDuel points since December 30th. However, he might not be super chalky with City and Chelsea in money spots.
Lastly, I want to touch on the Leeds-Southampton bout. Leeds' matches are typically great for DFS, and the change in managers hasn't impacted that. There have been 3.0 and 3.9 total xG in Leeds' past two EPL fixtures, and those came against Norwich and Wolves -- sides not known for their attacking prowess. Leeds and Southampton are eighth and ninth, respectively, in xG scored, while sitting in the top seven in most xG conceded. In short, there's a great chance for there to be goals in this clash.
For the Saints, frontman Armando Broja ($14) is one of my favorite plays on the slate and is easy to like at his salary, and Che Adams ($16) is another modest-salaried forward who could get a goal. On the Leeds side, Raphinha ($18) is the standout option, but Rodrigo ($16) is a quality pivot who has posted 21.3 and 25.6 FanDuel points in his last two games and won't be as popular as Raphinha.
Added time -- Brighton are in a rut and haven't won since January 23rd, so they'll likely slip through the cracks despite a cozy home matchup with Norwich. Neal Maupay ($17) and Alexis Mac Allister ($13) will benefit from the matchup, and Mac Allister profiles as one of the slate's elite value plays. ... The Villa-Wolves matchup doesn't excite us too much as far as fantasy goes. With that said, it's likely to be the least popular match, so hitting on a goal from it could be huge. Pedro Neto ($14) may start for Wolves in place of the suspended Raul Jimenez. ... Villa's Jacob Ramsey ($11) isn't a bad way to save salary.
The full-backs for City and Chelsea are superb plays.
City's Joao Cancelo ($15) will likely be able to get forward early and often against Burnley, and he's a fun stacking piece alongside one or two City attackers. He's put up between 15.8 and 17.8 FanDuel points in four straight matches. One of Oleksandr Zinchenko ($8) and Kyle Walker ($7) will probably be in the other full-back spot. They don't offer the same attacking juice Cancelo does, but Zinchenko is the more attack-minded of the two.
Chelsea's Reece James ($15) and Marcos Alonso ($14) can crush it against Brentford. James had a goal and assist en route to 35.2 FanDuel points last time out. Alonso is averaging 15.9 FanDuel points per game for the season.
James Tarkowski ($15) offers a high floor as Burnley will be facing a City barrage. Tarkowski has scored double-digit FanDuel points in every single game this season. With Ben Mee out and Nathan Collins suspended, Burnley should also give us a value option on the backline, possibly Phil Bardsley ($5). If Bardsley starts at center-back, I'll have a lot of him.
Tariq Lamptey ($7) is a sweet value play. With Brighton at home against the Canaries, Lamptey will be able to get forward, especially if Brighton play with three at the back. That compensates for Lamptey's lack of defensive stats as the wing-back/full-back should be able to create a few chances.
Added time -- One of Luke Shaw ($10) or Diogo Dalot ($8) will likely draw the start for United. They're lower-salary ways to get a piece of the Red Devils. ... Brentford's Kristoffer Ajer ($9) and Pontus Jansson ($11) have some appeal. Jansson has recorded at least 15.6 FanDuel points in five of his last six contests. Ajer could wind up as the lowest-salaried starting center-back. ... The Saints' Valentino Livramento ($11) gets a lift in what is expected to be an open affair against Leeds.
Ederson ($14) and Edouard Mendy ($13) are the best chances for a win and/or clean sheet, and they're salaried as such.
City have conceded fewer than 1.0 xG in seven of their last eight outings across EPL and UCL play. Burnley have mustered a league-low 23.9 xG in 27 matches. Ederson can get 17.0 FanDuel points via a clean-sheet win. But as is typically the case with Ederson, if City concede a goal, he is unlikely to see enough save volume to still post a high score.
Mendy has registered at least 17.0 FanDuel points in three of his last four games and is in a very similar spot as Ederson, although Brentford offer more in attack than the Clarets do.
Robert Sanchez ($12) is a nice alternative if you don't have the salary for one of the big two. Sanchez plays behind a solid Brighton defense and offers decent clean-sheet chances at home against Norwich. Brighton blanked the Canaries the last time they played.
Added time -- Tim Krul ($8) is a viable value choice against Brighton. The Seagulls usually create chances but have trouble capitalizing on them, which makes them an ideal team to play keepers against. Norwich shut them out in a 0-0 draw in the reverse fixture. ... David de Gea ($12) will surely go overlooked on this slate, and given the options in his salary range, it's easy to see why. But he's a talented keeper, and it's not like Leicester have been flying in attack this season. DDG is a fun tourney play.