Premier League Betting Guide: Matchweek 30
Which Premier League matches offer betting value on Soccer odd this week?
Let's see where we can zero in.
Please note that lines are subject to change after this article is published, which impacts betting advice. All betting lines were taken from FanDuel Sportsbook, and you can check here to see the most updated numbers.
Wolves vs. Leeds
Leeds to win +250
Wolves are well ahead of Leeds in the table with a 14W-4D-11L record and 46 points in their first 29 matches. By comparison, Leeds are 6-8-15 with only 26 points, as they are only 4 points clear of the relegation zone.
However, despite the massive gap in points, there is hardly anything separating the two sides, according to expected goal difference (xGD).
Wolves are 15th in xGD at -12.6 compared to -17.1 for 18th-ranked Leeds. This suggests Wolves have been lucky to find themselves so high in the table and implies this game is more of a toss-up.
Leeds to win at +250 provides good value.
Aston Villa vs. Arsenal
Arsenal to win +135
Arsenal lost 2-0 to Liverpool on Wednesday, but they played well in the match. The Gunners finished even on total shots and held 48% possession, so perhaps the 2-0 loss is a harsh result. Arsenal had won their previous 5 matches and had won 9 out of their last 11 prior to the Liverpool game, so they remain in very good form of late.
Aston Villa is having a decent season in 9th place, but the Gunners will provide a very difficult challenge. Villa are behind Arsenal by 10.9 goals in xGD, and they were defeated by Arsenal 3-1 earlier this season.
Arsenal should be able to get the full three points from this match.
Leicester vs. Brentford
Brentford to win +240
Leicester are 9-6-11 this season, putting them in 12th place. They are three points ahead of Brentford with three games in hand. However, Brentford are ahead of Leicester in xGD at -3.9 compared to -8.6 for Leicester.
Brentford have won two straight games as they try to get their season back on track, so they are looking to continue their positive momentum this weekend.
xGD is suggesting that this game should be close to even, with Brentford possibly even having the advantage on a neutral field. Brentford’s odds to win are creeping close to 3-1, so this is another potential value play as they look for their third straight victory.