FanDuel Soccer: EPL DFS Helper for 3/5/22
Brighton (+170) at Newcastle (+175)
Over 2.5 Goals: +128 | Most Likely to Score: Wood (+170)
Brentford (+160) at Norwich (+190)
Over 2.5 Goals: +136 | Most Likely to Score: Toney (+160)
Southampton (+200) at Aston Villa (+135)
Over 2.5 Goals: -120 | Most Likely to Score: Ings (+180)
Crystal Palace (+240) at Wolves (+135)
Over 2.5 Goals: +158 | Most Likely to Score: Jimenez (+145)
Chelsea (-210) at Burnley (+600)
Over 2.5 Goals: +104 | Most Likely to Score: Lukaku (+115)
West Ham (+850) at Liverpool (-340)
Over 2.5 Goals: -205 | Most Likely to Score: Salah (-140)
This six-match slate has two big favorites in Liverpool (-340) and Chelsea (-210), and they're clearly the best places to look for goals. The other four matches are all pretty level affairs, with no other side better than a +135 favorite and just one team -- Aston Villa at +105 -- sporting better than +145 odds to get two-plus goals.
Going by the numbers, Liverpool are the more appealing side between the Reds and Blues despite having a tougher matchup against West Ham. The Reds are -310 to score at least twice and +110 to bag three-plus goals -- compared to Chelsea's odds of -155 to score at least two and +230 to get three or more at Burnley. Liverpool are the only team we should be stacking, per a study I did.
Mohamed Salah ($22; -140) has the slate's top goal odds and figures to be chalky as heck. He's scored at least 17.0 FanDuel points in five of his past six EPL matches while producing spike outings of 60.0 and 49.3 FanDuel points in his last two games. With 19 goals and 10 assists in 23 league starts, Salah is the best DFS option in the Prem, and while West Ham are no pushover, the Reds scored three at the London Stadium earlier this campaign. Fire up Salah.
As is always the case when Liverpool are in a money spot, Diogo Jota ($20; -105) and Sadio Mane ($19; +105) are great pivots off the Salah chalk or can be stacked alongside the Egyptian superstar. Amazingly, Jota and Mane have the slate's second- and third-best goal odds. That tells you how much oddsmakers like the Reds (and don't really love the matchups for any other sides). Luis Diaz ($18; +155) has hit the ground running on Merseyside and was Liverpool's best attacker for most of last weekend's Carabao Cup final. He's another stellar Liverpool option if he starts.
Chelsea's matchup with the Clarets is just +104 to go over 2.5 goals. Burnley have righted the ship a bit, particularly on defense. Over their last four matches, they've conceded more than 0.9 expected goals (xG) only once, per FBRef. They held high-octane Liverpool to one goal at Turf Moor on February 13th. So, in short, this probably won't be a Chelsea onslaught.
As such -- and also due to how balanced Chelsea's attack is -- no Blues are better than +115 to score a goal. Romelu Lukaku ($19; +115) and Kai Havertz ($17; +165) lead the way. Havertz is typically a better real-life player than a fantasy asset as he's been really good at times this season but is averaging only 8.0 FanDuel points per game for the campaign. Both Havertz and Lukaku can have success in the air in a match in which Chelsea might fire in a lot of crosses.
Outside of Chelsea and Liverpool, this slate is a tough one to navigate. No player is better than +145 to net a goal. No team is better than +105 to score at least two goals, and the side that is -- Aston Villa -- I'm not all that jacked about due to a matchup against a Southampton team that's been playing well.
Three players I am prioritizing are Ivan Toney ($17; +160), Chris Wood ($15; +170) and Raul Jimenez ($17; +145).
Jimenez has the top goal odds among any of the non-Liverpool and non-Chelsea players for a home date with Crystal Palace. He's the only Wolves player to score from the spot in EPL play. Wood has a tough home matchup with Burnley, but he's a good way to get a piece of solid goal odds at a modest salary. Toney plays at Norwich, and the Canaries allowed 2.2 xG to Brentford in the reverse fixture. Toney missed time in February due to injury, but if the Bees' penalty taker is in the lineup, he's one of my favorite plays on the slate.
I should at least touch on Villa, who are +105 to score two-plus goals at home versus the Saints. Villa have three players -- Danny Ings ($15; +180), Ollie Watkins ($16; +185) and Emi Buendia ($13; +230) -- who are at least +230 to get a goal. On the negative, Southampton limited Villa to 0.6 expected goals in their previous matchup this season and have lost only one EPL match over their last 10, including draws with both Manchester clubs and a win over West Ham.
Added time -- Che Adams ($16; +220), Armando Broja ($15; +230) and James Ward-Prowse ($18; +350) are quality contrarian plays for the Saints' matchup with Villa. The Villans have failed to keep a clean sheet in recent matches against Leeds, Newcastle and Watford. ... Neal Maupay ($15; +185) has team-best goal odds for Brighton. ... Fabinho ($14; +400) is getting up there in salary, but he should be active on both ends of the pitch for Liverpool. ... Teemu Pukki ($15; +170) has the top goal odds for Norwich in a winnable home bout with Brentford.
The full-backs for Chelsea and Liverpool are excellent options.
Liverpool's Trent Alexander-Arnold ($15) and Andrew Robertson ($14) are +550 and +700, respectively, to score, and they are top-notch plays nearly every time out. They lead Liverpool in corners taken, and Alexander-Arnold handles most of the free-kick work.
Marcos Alonso ($13) and Reece James ($14) might end up being the best way to get exposure to Chelsea. James is a stellar (for a defender) +460 to bag a goal while Alonso is +550 to score. In a match in which the Blues will likely see a lot of the ball, these two should be getting into dangerous areas and sending balls into the box.
Kurt Zouma ($13), Craig Dawson ($12), James Tarkowski ($14) and Nathan Collins ($12) project as the starting center-backs for West Ham and Burnley, the slate's two big underdogs. They offer solid floors as they should be busy for 90 minutes.
Jonny ($7) is a superb value play if he starts. He's dealt with injuries the last two seasons but was a productive player for Wolves prior to that, notching 1.8 shot-creating actions per match in 2018-19 and 1.7 in 2019-20. He will have chances to get forward against Palace.
Added time -- Tariq Lamptey ($8) continues to be a serviceable value target as one of the lowest-salaries starting defenders. He's generated outputs of 17.7 and 22.8 FanDuel points across his last four games. ... Emil Krafth ($8) is another viable low-salary choice. He could start at right-back due to Newcastle's injury woes. ... Tyrick Mitchell ($10) has scored at least 9.1 FanDuel points in five straight appearances.
Sticking with the theme of this slate, the keepers for Chelsea and Liverpool lead the way.
Edouard Mendy ($13) has slate-best clean-sheet odds of -112 for the Blues' fixture at Burnley. The Clarets' attack has been better of late, but Burney still have only 22.5 xG in 25 EPL matches. Mendy is a great play and figures to be pretty popular.
At $1 more, Alisson ($14) might not be as chalky. Liverpool are +112 to blank West Ham at Anfield, and the big plus in Alisson's corner is that the Reds are -340 to win, compared to Mendy's -210 win odds. Liverpool are flat-out bulldozing people. Across their last five matches in all competitions, they have allowed a combined 2.2 xG, never permitting more than 0.8 xG in any game in that time. They've kept a clean sheet in eight of their last 12 matches.
It's anyone's guess after those two. You're not going to get good win odds with any other goalie.
I can stomach Jose Sa ($12) and David Raya ($11). Sa is +146 to blank Crystal Palace -- the best clean-sheet odds outside of Chelsea and Liverpool -- and +135 to win. Raya is +184 to keep a clean sheet at Norwich, but the Bees are only very slight +160 favorites.
Added time -- In the Newcastle-Brighton game, Robert Sanchez ($9) and Martin Dubravka ($10) are each +205 to keep a clean sheet. ... Emiliano Martinez ($11) is tied for the best win odds (+135) outside of the big two sides. ... Nick Pope ($7) makes some sense as a dart throw. He will likely see save volume against Chelsea, and the Blues' attack has been meh for the back half of the season, generating more than 1.3 xG just once in their last eight EPL matches.