Premier League Betting Guide for Matchweek 22
Which Premier League matches offer betting value on FanDuel Sportsbook this week?
Let's see where we can zero in.
Please note that lines are subject to change after this article is published, which impacts betting advice. All betting lines were taken from FanDuel Sportsbook, and you can check here to see the most updated numbers. You can also check out oddsFire to get a feel for the line movement of each match.
Manchester City vs. Chelsea
Manchester City to win -150
Chelsea are having a strong season with 43 points from 21 matches, but they are still 10 points behind Manchester City and do not appear to have a realistic shot at the title.
City are 17W-2D-2L with an 8-1-1 mark at home. They have an expected goal difference (xGD) of +34.8 -- per FBRef -- compared to +18.3 for Chelsea, and they are 11 goals ahead of Chelsea on actual goal difference. City have won 11 straight league games. Chelsea are 1-4-0 in their last five.
City should expect to take three points at home against anyone in the league, and we should take advantage of the chance to get them at -150 to win.
Wolves vs. Southampton
Southampton to win +240
While Southampton are currently four points behind Wolves, the Saints are ahead by 3.2 in xGD and could be in line to overtake them in the table before the season is over.
The Saints are 2-2-1 in their last five, including a win over fourth-place West Ham. Wolves are 2-1-2 in their last five, so they are in similar form to Southampton.
Wolves are not a particularly good home side (3-2-4 home record with a -2 goal difference), so home-field may not play a huge factor in this game. This is an evenly matched clash on paper, and Southampton are a decent-sized underdog. Therefore, being on Wolves at +240 to win is the way to go.
Norwich vs. Everton
Everton to win +100
Norwich was starting to look like a competent EPL team after a putrid start to their season, but they have fallen back into bad form recently, losing each of their last six matches by a combined score of 16-0. Yikes!
Norwich have been truly dreadful for most of the campaign, and they are last in the league in all of points, actual goal differential and xGD. They are bottom of the league in goals scored, and they have conceded more goals than anyone else. They're bad.
At 5-3-9, Everton are not a good team, either, but their xGD is only -4.4. The Toffees should be in for better results going forward and are nowhere near as bad as Norwich.
Everton should win this game without much of a problem.