Premier League Betting Guide for Matchweek 17
Which Premier League matches offer betting value on Soccer odd this week?
Let's see where we can zero in.
Please note that lines are subject to change after this article is published, which impacts betting advice. All betting lines were taken from FanDuel Sportsbook, and you can check here to see the most updated numbers. You can also check out oddsFire to get a feel for the line movement of each match.
Brentford vs. Manchester United
Brentford to win +300
Manchester United are 8W-3D-5L through their first 16 matches, which is good enough for fifth place in the league -- only one point behind West Ham for fourth. United face a difficult road matchup with Brentford, who are 5-5-6.
Brentford are ahead of United on expected goal differential (xGD), per FBRef, at +1.4, compared to -2.9 for the Red Devils. The Bees have been a pleasant surprise this season, and while they may not have the same talent level as United, they have proven they can win games against quality opponents.
Brentford defeated sixth-place Arsenal 2-0 earlier this season, and they tied second-place Liverpool 3-3, so they have a decent track record against the big clubs this campaign.
United are rightfully favorites, but getting Brentford at 3-1 to win is a good value bet. Not only are the Bees a good side, we just saw United play an even match at Norwich last time out, a game in which both sides put five shots on target.
Norwich vs. Aston Villa
Aston Villa to win +130
Norwich have been in improved form recently, going 1-2-2 in their last five matches. They remain in last place with only 10 points from 16 games, but they have moved ahead of Newcastle in xGD and are now only three points from safety. However, they have still lost 62.5% of their games this season.
Villa are struggling a bit this year, sitting in 13th place at 6-1-9 overall, but they are 3-0-2 in their last five matches, with their only losses during that stretch coming by one goal to the top two teams in the league (Manchester City and Liverpool). Villa are certainly the better team, and they should get a win on Tuesday given their current good run of form.
Arsenal vs West Ham
West Ham to win +230
Arsenal and West Ham are separated by just two points in the standings through the first 16 games, as West Ham hold a two-point lead. However, the gap between these two sides is much larger on goal difference, with West Ham at +9, compared to -1 for the Gunners. xGD also favors West Ham -- +4.2 to -4.1.
West Ham have played well against the top teams this season with 3-2 victories over both Chelsea and Liverpool. Arsenal have been terrible against the teams ahead of them in the table, going 0-0-4 with a -12 goal difference against the top five so far this season. The Gunners have been unable to raise their level against other top clubs, and they will face a very difficult challenge against a quality West Ham side.