DraftKings Soccer: EPL DFS Helper for 12/11/21
We've got a small, three-game slate with two of the top three teams in the league playing. Here are the games, with odds from FanDuel Sportsbook:
|Chelsea (-380)||+500||Leeds (+1000)|
|Liverpool (-450)||+550||Aston Villa (+1100)|
|Arsenal (-145)||+270||Southampton (+420)|
Forwards to Target
Mohamed Salah ($10,800): Salah hasn't scored in his last two Premier League games and has now seen his salary fall from $12,000 last week to $10,800 this week. He still had over 14 DraftKings points in both games through assists. He still has four more goals than any other player and has a great chance to extend that lead this week.
Salah leads the Premier League in shots, with 13 more than teammate Sadio Mane in second place. He has reached double-digit fantasy points in every game this season and reached a ceiling performance of 51.6 points against Manchester United. No other forward has that floor/ceiling combination.
Liverpool are the biggest favorites on the slate in this game against Aston Villa. Villa have been playing better under new manager Steven Gerrard, but they are still overmatched in this game. Salah's -185 goal-scoring odds are the best on the slate, making him stand above the rest at forward.
Romelu Lukaku ($7,300): If Salah is the best forward play, Lukaku isn't too far behind. He hasn't scored in the Premier League since September, which has seen his salary drop way down. He's missed time due to injury and is working his way back to full fitness. The goal he scored in the Champions League this week is a good sign that he's close to being fully back.
Lukaku was one of the most in-form strikers in the world earlier in 2021, playing for Inter and Belgium. The injury put a damper on that, but he should be able to regain that form, or at least something close to it. Now, he'll face a Leeds side that like to attack and play high-tempo games. That could set up well for Lukaku, who has anytime goal-scoring odds of -150.
This salary is just way too low for someone of Lukaku's talent and the matchup, and he's in play in all formats.
Armando Broja ($5,800): Broja is a good value option at forward. He has performed well for Southampton this season when given his chance. In his four league starts this season, he has three goals. He should get the start against Arsenal on Saturday. It's not the best matchup, but Southampton aren't as big of underdogs as Aston Villa or Leeds. Broja is someone to take a shot on for a cheap goal in tournaments.
Others to Consider: Bukayo Saka ($8,400), Sadio Mané ($7,400), Dan James ($5,500)
Midfielders to Target
Martin Ødegaard ($7,600): Ødegaard has been playing well for Arsenal, as they are rejuvenated since their very poor start to the season. They have lost two games on the spin, but the Norwegian can't be blamed for that. He's scored in both of those games.
Ødegaard has been contributing in other ways besides scoring. He's been on corner kick duties and has created four chances in each of the last two games. The matchup against Southampton is a fairly average one, so nothing we should be afraid of for Ødegaard. He'll offer a decent floor with the upside to add a goal or an assist.
James Ward-Prowse ($6,700): James Ward-Prowse was $9,100 just a few weeks ago and now has seen his salary sink to $6,700. He had two poor games in his last three, but one of them was away to Liverpool. This matchup away to Arsenal is not nearly as tough, as they rank in the middle in terms of possession rate and crosses allowed per game, according to WhoScored.com
Ward-Prowse is second in the league in crosses despite missing two games due to suspension. He also offers a significant goal threat on free kicks and has taken Southampton's two penalty kicks in the league this season. This salary makes it seem like he's going up against Manchester City, Chelsea, or Liverpool, who are the three clear top teams in the league. Arsenal have been playing well but are not on that level. The $6,700 salary makes Ward-Prowse a fantastic play in any lineup.
Tyler Roberts ($4,600): We need some value to fit in all of these great plays, and we might have to turn to someone like Tyler Roberts.
He should be leading the line for Leeds despite the position listing as a midfielder/forward. He finally picked up his first goal of the season last week against Brentford. He has 10 shots in the past three games. Chelsea is not an easy match on paper, but they will be without defensive midfield star N'Golo Kanté and have conceded in three straight Premier League games. Roberts could bag a goal for $4,600, which would go a long way to helping our lineups.
Others to Consider: Mason Mount ($9,300), Jordan Henderson ($5,100), Saúl Ñíguez ($3,400)
Defenders to Target
Trent Alexander-Arnold ($8,000): The most valuable fantasy defender and one of the most valuable fantasy players continues to be Trent Alexander-Arnold. DraftKings has finally given his salary a bump up to where we can't automatically plug him in, but you could argue he's still the best play on the slate. He averages 19.9 fantasy points per game, only behind Mo Salah on this slate. He has just one league game below 10 DraftKings points this season.
Alexander-Arnold was rested in the midweek Champions League game, so he should be ready to play a full 90 minutes on Saturday. He leads the league with 107 crosses this season. If Liverpool play with Divock Origi up front, that gives TAA a big target to aim his crosses towards, which could see him cross even more. He's a lock for cash games and a good play in tournaments as well, and a pairing with Origi (if he starts) would make a lot of sense.
Marcos Alonso ($6,300): Alonso is now the starting left back for Chelsea with Ben Chilwell out with a long-term injury. Alonso is always a great option when he starts because he's an attack-minded full back who takes set pieces.
He's reached 16 crosses twice in the league this season in games where Chelsea dominated possession. This game against Leeds may be a bit different, but Alonso still should see a lot of the ball come his way. Alonso could be aiming his crosses to big Romelu Luakaku, so they make a good stack in tournaments.
Thiago Silva ($3,700): We really need value on this slate, so playing Thiago Silva at center back is an option. He has two goals in the league this season. He has made nine starts in the league this season and has at least five DK points in eight of them. Chelsea are favored to keep a clean sheet, which would be three bonus points right there. If he can add a few shots and tackles won to reach eight points, you would take that for $3,700.
Others to Consider: Reece James ($7,700), Andrew Robertson ($5,900), Takehiro Tomiyasu ($4,400)
Goalkeepers to Target
Édouard Mendy ($5,800): The goalkeeper salaries are pretty interesting this week. All of the favorites are jammed up to the top while the underdogs are all below $4,000. With Alisson just $100 more than Mendy, he likely will be the more popular of the two. If Mendy is going to appear on fewer rosters, he's the preferred option as Chelsea has better clean sheet odds than Liverpool.
Willy Caballero ($3,900): Caballero is Southampton's emergency goalkeeper with Fraser Forster and Alex McCarthy both injured. He's a very experienced goalkeeper and in a better matchup than the two starting keepers with lower salaries than him. It's only $200 to go down to Illan Meslier and $300 to go down to Emiliano Martínez despite a much tougher spot for those two keepers. That will make Caballero a popular choice but is probably the best value at the position on the slate.
Nicholas Vazquez is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Nicholas Vazquez also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username hbyanksman. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his/her personal views, he/she may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his/her personal account. The views expressed in his/her articles are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.