FanDuel Soccer: EPL DFS Helper for 12/11/21
Leeds (+950) at Chelsea (-360)
Over 2.5 Goals: -156 | Most Likely to Score: Lukaku (-140)
Southampton (+450) at Arsenal (-160)
Over 2.5 Goals: -124 | Most Likely to Score: Lacazette/Aubameyang (+115)
Aston Villa (+1100) at Liverpool (-450)
Over 2.5 Goals: -260 | Most Likely to Score: Salah (-185)
Manchester United (-230) at Norwich (+600)
Over 2.5 Goals: -148 | Most Likely to Score: Ronaldo (-145)
We have a trio of big favorites on this slate in Liverpool (-450 to win), Chelsea (-360) and Manchester United (-230).
Liverpool are in their own tier for a home date with Aston Villa. The Reds are -420 to score at least two goals and -125 to net three-plus. No other side is better than +120 to score at least three. In short, you're going to want pieces from Liverpool, and they -- along with Chelsea -- fit the stacking criteria we are looking for.
Mohamed Salah ($23; -185) has the slate's best goal odds and may be the most popular play on a slate that's loaded with attacking talent. He paces the Premier League in both goals (13) and assists (9). He's in the best form of his career at the minute. As good as he was in his first year with the Reds, he's taken it to another level so far this season, producing a pristine 1.47 goals plus assists per 90 minutes. Salah will be on penalties and is in a money spot against Villa, though Villa have been better since Steven Gerrard -- the Liverpool legend -- took over. You just have to decide if you're cool with swallowing the chalk with Salah.
Sadio Mane ($19; +100) is a fun pivot off Salah or can be stacked alongside the Egyptian. Mane isn't playing all that well right now, but he does have seven goals and one assist through 14 league starts. We could get a rare Divock Origi ($17; -105) start if Diogo Jota ($20; +100) can't go. Origi has two goals this year in only 41 minutes of playing time. If Jota is able to play, he's a superb option who has tallied eight goals and an assist in 12 starts.
Chelsea and Manchester United are in dope spots, too. The Blues are +120 to score at least three on Saturday while United are +165 to get three. You can make a strong case for either, but I like the Blues more thanks to a home matchup versus a Leeds side that tends to play open affairs. Leeds have been ripped apart at times this year versus the top sides as United tagged them for five goals while Liverpool put three past them.
Coming off a midweek road match in Europe, the Blues' starting XI isn't easy to pin down, but anyone who starts in an attacking spot for them is worth a look.
Romelu Lukaku ($20; -140) has struggled a bit to fit into this Chelsea side, but he's a top-shelf player who has delectable goal odds. It's probably wishful thinking to hope that maybe his recent form pushes people off him in this spot, but maybe it happens a little bit with so many other good high-salary forward options.
Kai Havertz ($16; +110) has the second-best goal odds on Chelsea and comes at a modest salary. Timo Werner ($18; +135), Christian Pulisic ($17; +145), Hakim Ziyech ($18; +195), Mason Mount ($19; +220) and Callum Hudson-Odoi ($17; +195) are all in contention to start for a ridiculously deep Chelsea side. Any of them are solid options.
As for Manchester United, they're at Norwich. The Canaries have permitted a league-high 31 goals, and United could roll if they're on their game. As we've seen this year, that's a big if, but if the masses load up on Chelsea and Liverpool, United might not be super chalky. The exception to that will be Cristiano Ronaldo ($21; -145), who has juicy goal odds and will be on everyone's radar.
However, I could see Bruno Fernandes ($20; +130) slipping through the cracks a little, and he should be on the ball plenty in this one. Mason Greenwood ($19; +140), Marcus Rashford ($18; +175) and Jadon Sancho ($17; +210) need to be on your radar, as well.
The other match is Southampton at Arsenal. It's -124 to go over 2.5 goals, and while that's the lowest mark on the slate, it means we should see goals. And with most lineups likely dedicating four attacking slots to Chelsea, United and Liverpool, players from this match are viable contrarian picks.
Arsenal, who are -160 favorites with -155 odds to get at least two goals, are the more appealing side in this fixture. Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang ($19; +115) and Alexandre Lacazette ($17; +115) share the top goal odds for the Gunners.
Added time -- Armando Broja ($15; +220) netted a goal last time out and carries the best goal odds on the Saints. ... Thiago Alcantara ($12; +550) has the ability to create loads of chances and fits as a low-salary inclusion to Liverpool stacks. ... Ruben Loftus-Cheek ($14; +210) is a lower-salary way to get access to Chelsea if he is in the lineup. ... Manchester United have conceded the fifth-most expected goals, per FBRef, and Teemu Pukki ($16; +220) isn't going to attract much attention on this slate.
With so many great high-salary attackers from which to choose, I want to save some salary at defender.
A great way to do that will be via Manchester United's Diogo Dalot ($7) if he starts at right-back. Dalot has 13.2 and 15.4 FanDuel points in his last two league starts. He offers attacking upside and has a decent shot to pick up a clean-sheet bonus against the Canaries (+126 odds). He's just about all we could ask for from a value defender.
We can also find solid low-salary defenders on the slate's underdogs, specifically Norwich and Leeds. Dimitris Giannoulis ($7) and Ozan Kabak ($8) could start for Norwich. Diego Llorente ($10) and Junior Firpo ($8) are listed as probable starters for Leeds. Pascal Struijk ($9) would be in play if he's available to start.
At the high end of the defender pool, Liverpool and Chelsea have full-backs who are in a great spot if you have the salary to get to them, and they're high-ceiling stacking pieces.
Chelsea's Reece James ($15) is +340 to score, which is just silly for a defender. His wing-back role at Chelsea gives him the license to bomb forward, and he's already recorded four assists and four goals this campaign. At left-back, Marcos Alonso ($14) is back to being the first choice with Ben Chilwell out. Alonso has a goal and assist in nine EPL starts and is averaging 19.3 FanDuel points per game. Both of these guys have a good chance to get the clean-sheet bonus as the Blues are -112 to blank Leeds.
Liverpool full-backs Trent Alexander-Arnold ($15) and Andrew Robertson ($13) are excellent plays, per usual. Trent is +490 to score, and his work on set pieces and free kicks gives a boost to his floor and ceiling. Reds center-back Virgil van Dijk ($10) is +440 to get a goal, which would almost certainly have to come from a set piece. The salary is nice, and the clean-sheet odds (+120) are good, too.
Added time -- Whoever starts at left-back for United is in an advantageous spot versus Norwich. Luke Shaw ($11) returned to the lineup midweek and could resume starting, although Alex Telles ($12) turned in some good showings in Shaw's absence. ... Kieran Tierney ($9) is easy to like at this salary. He had an assist last time out at Everton and is a nice way to get exposure to Arsenal.
The three big favorites sit at the top of the keeper pool -- Alisson ($14), Edouard Mendy ($13) and David De Gea ($12).
Even before factoring in salaries, Mendy profiles as the best play, and the fact he's not the highest-salaried keeper should make him very popular. Chelsea are a slate-leading -112 to keep a clean sheet, and they're huge -360 favorites to get a win. The Blues have faltered a bit defensively of late, including shipping three goals midweek at Zenit, but they've still allowed just nine goals in 15 EPL outings.
Alisson is +120 to blank Aston Villa and has the best win odds (-450) on the slate. Liverpool have four clean sheets in their last six matches across all competitions, and they've kept four straight clean sheets at Anfield. With a salary that is $1 more than Mendy's, Alisson is an enticing pivot off the chalky Chelsea keeper.
De Gea is +126 to record a clean sheet at Norwich. That's not far from Alisson's odds, although at just -240 to win, United aren't nearly as big of a favorite as the Reds and Blues are. United has been shoddy defensively for much of the year, but new manager Ralf Rangnick deployed a compact midfield in his debut against Palace, which resulted in a clean sheet. If Rangnick continues to utilize a more solid formation, De Gea should benefit.
Added time -- Aaron Ramsdale ($11) is +148 to keep Southampton from scoring, and he's the best option outside of the slate's lopsided favorites. No other goalie is better than +500 to keep a clean sheet. ... If I had to back another keeper, I'd choose to just punt with Emiliano Martinez ($6). The salary savings are nice, and we know he's talented. If he can keep the damage to just a goal or two at Anfield while racking up saves, he can generate a decent fantasy output.