Premier League Betting Guide for Matchweek 16
Which Premier League matches offer betting value on FanDuel Sportsbook this week?
Let's see where we can zero in.
Please note that lines are subject to change after this article is published, which impacts betting advice. All betting lines were taken from FanDuel Sportsbook, and you can check here to see the most updated numbers. You can also check out oddsFire to get a feel for the line movement of each match.
Arsenal vs Southampton
Arsenal are having another mediocre season, and they currently sit in seventh place with a 7W-2D-6L record. The Gunners have lost three of their last four matches, including losses to Manchester United and Everton in their past two.
Southampton are well below Arsenal in the table, as they are in 16th place with 16 points from 15 games. However, the Saints are ahead of Arsenal on expected goal differential (xGD), per FBRef, at +0.3, compared to -5.0 for the Gunners.
Southampton have been a bit unlucky to not be doing better in the table, and while they are rightfully underdogs in this game, they have a better chance to win than the +460 odds indicate.
Burnley vs West Ham
West Ham +100
West Ham are having a very strong season, and their 8-3-4 record puts them in fourth place in the table. West Ham have established themselves as one of the better teams in the league across the past two seasons, and they finished only two points out of a Champions League spot in the 2020-2021 campaign. The Hammers also have a +4.3 xGD, which ranks fourth in the league -- further proving they are a legitimately good team.
Burnley are 1-7-6 to start this season and are on the other end of the table in 18th place. Their poor start to the season has been well earned as they are 17th in xGD at -7.1. Burnley are likely in for a long relegation fight all season long, and they will struggle to get any points out of most games against top competition.
I like getting West Ham at +100 to win in this one.
Brighton vs Tottenham
Tottenham are 8-1-5 this season and are ahead of Brighton by four spots in the standings. Spurs are in good form and are riding a three-game winning streak with victories over Leeds, Brentford and Norwich.
Brighton are 4-8-3 this season, which is good enough for ninth place, but they're being carried by their hot start early in the season. Brighton are winless in their last 10 league matches at 0-8-2.
Neither team is having a particularly good season, but Tottenham have the more talented side and make for a solid wager at +280 to win.