FanDuel Soccer: EPL DFS Helper for 12/4/21
Burnley (+220) at Newcastle (+130)
Over 2.5 Goals: -106 | Most Likely to Score: Wilson (+120)
Liverpool (-230) at Wolves (+600)
Over 2.5 Goals: -140 | Most Likely to Score: Salah (-130)
Brighton (+200) at Southampton (+145)
Over 2.5 Goals: +112 | Most Likely to Score: Maupay (+200)
Manchester City (-550) at Watford (+1300)
Over 2.5 Goals: -230 | Most Likely to Score: Mahrez (+100)
This slate revolves around Manchester City and Liverpool. Both are huge favorites, and a lot of DFS gamers may end up using City and Liverpool players in all four attacking slots. Given the makeup of the slate, it's not a bad idea if you can find the salary to do it.
Let's start with City, who are a whopping -550 to win at Watford. City are -420 to score at least two goals and -130 to net at least three. Those are slate-best marks by some distance. For reference, Liverpool are -210 to score twice and +165 to get three-plus goals.
City, per usual, offer a plethora of quality options, boasting seven players who are +175 or better to score a goal. Anyone in an attacking spot for City needs to be considered, and it's difficult to pin down exactly what their starting XI will be. The best goal odds belong to Riyad Mahrez ($17; +100), Raheem Sterling ($17; +110) and Gabriel Jesus ($20; +115).
Liverpool's starting lineup, especially the front three, is more predictable, and the Reds are -230 to win at Wolves. Wolverhampton are no pushover, but the Reds are rolling right now, winning their last four by a combined 14-1 score.
The slate's chalk player will likely be Mohamed Salah ($22; -130), who has played every minute of every league match this season and leads the EPL in goals (13) and assists (8) through 14 matches. He's in the best form of his career, tallying 1.50 goals plus assists per 90 minutes. He's on penalties and carries the slate's best goal odds. All the boxes are checked; you just have to decide if you want to swallow the chalk.
I lean toward fading Salah and using one of Diogo Jota ($20; +140) or Sadio Mane ($19; +135). Jota actually leads Liverpool with 0.74 expected goals (xG) per 90 minutes, according to FBRef. He's bagged eight goals and one assist in 11 starts. Mane has seven goals and an assist in 13 starts. Both are good pivots off Salah or fun stacking partners alongside him.
After Liverpool and City, the team I most want to get exposure to is Newcastle. The Magpies are slight +130 favorites at home versus Burnley, and the match is -106 to go over 2.5 goals. Newcastle have been blanked at home just once all year, and that was against Chelsea. Burnley are not Chelsea.
Callum Wilson ($19; +120) has nice goal odds and can take advantage of a Clarets defense that has conceded 13.2 xG -- the second-most -- in six away fixtures. Using Wilson and dedicating the other three attacking spots to City and Liverpool will be my go-to lineup build.
Burnley's Chris Wood ($16; +160) deserves a shout, too. Wood has solid goal odds and a modest salary, and I think he'll likely slip through the cracks on this slate. Newcastle haven't kept a clean sheet at home this league campaign, including allowing three goals to Brentford, four to West Ham and three to Spurs.
Added time -- The one match I didn't hit on is Southampton-Brighton. It has slate-worst odds to go over 2.5 goals (+112), but on a four-match slate, we still need to check it out. Neal Maupay ($17; +200) and Che Adams ($18; +220) have the best goal odds for Brighton and Southampton, respectively, among expected starters. ... Newcastle's Allan Saint-Maximin ($17; +280) and Joelinton ($16; +260) are interesting pivots off Wilson.
My goal at defender is to find some lower-salary production that allows me to get the Liverpool and City players I want.
Wolves' center-half Conor Coady ($10) is a modest-salaried player who should give us a solid floor via defensive actions. The same goes for Craig Cathcart ($11) and William Troost-Ekong ($10), the probable starters at center-back for Watford. Facing Liverpool and City, these defenders will be very busy.
Brighton's Tariq Lamptey ($9) and Southampton's Lyanco ($6) are enticing value targets. Lamptey has put up at least 13.6 FanDuel points in three of his last four matches and can do some damage against the Saints. Lyanco is listed as an expected starter for Southampton. He totaled 15.6 FanDuel points against Liverpool in his only EPL start of the campaign. We can't expect that kind of production in a totally different game environment versus Brighton, but the salary is awfully handy.
At the top end of the defender pool, Joao Cancelo ($14), Trent Alexander-Arnold ($15) and Andrew Robertson ($13) are high-upside full-backs. City's Cancelo is +550 to score while TAA (+600) and Robertson (+800) have respectable goal odds for the Reds. They're all logical stacking pieces if you're stacking City or Liverpool.
Added time -- Southampton's Valentino Livramento ($11) has produced at least 14.1 FanDuel points in five of his last seven matches. ... Newcastle's Matt Ritchie ($10) handles some set-piece work and should be able to generate crosses against Burnley.
Brazilians Ederson ($14) and Alisson ($13) are the standout plays at keeper.
Ederson is -550 to win and -110 to keep a clean sheet -- both of which pace the slate by a wide margin. Alisson is -230 to win and +118 to blank Wolves. You can make a strong case for either, and if you have the coin for Ederson, he's a strong play.
Martin Dubravka ($11) is a solid mid-range target. Newcastle are +210 to keep a clean sheet, which isn't ideal, but their +130 win odds are third-best on the slate. Playing behind a poor defense, the tradeoff of the lower clean-sheet chances is that Dubravka will see save volume -- even against Burnley. He had to make five saves at home to Norwich last time out. If he can make some stops and get the win, he'll be a quality play, and it makes sense to pair him with Wilson.
Added time -- Southampton's Alex McCarthy ($10) has +200 clean-sheet odds, the best clip on the slate outside of City and Liverpool. Brighton has mustered just 13 goals through 14 matches. ... If you're going light on City or Liverpool, you can correlate it with using the opposing goalie, either Jose Sa ($7) or Daniel Bachmann ($6). The salary savings are nice, and while it could backfire in a big way, either goalie is capable of a serviceable output if they can keep the damage to one or two goals while making a bunch of saves.