Premier League Betting Guide for Matchweek 11
Which Premier League matches offer betting value on FanDuel Sportsbook this week?
Let's see where we can zero in.
Please note that lines are subject to change after this article is published, which impacts betting advice. All betting lines were taken from FanDuel Sportsbook, and you can check here to see the most updated numbers. You can also check out oddsFire to get a feel for the line movement of each match.
Southampton vs Aston Villa
Aston Villa and Draw (-135)
Southampton and Aston Villa are close to even in the standings, with Southampton currently ahead by a single point. The Saints are 2W-5D-3L, giving them only a 20% win rate. Compare that to 3-1-6 for Villa -- a 40% win/draw rate for the season.
Last season, Villa finished 12 points ahead of Southampton and finished 30 goals ahead on goal difference. Southampton only won 12 games last year for a 31.57% win rate. Villa won 16 and drew 7 for a 60.52% win/draw rate.
Villa were much better than Southampton last season, and even after a slow start to this season, they are still only one point below the Saints in the table. Villa should expect at least a draw from this game.
Manchester United vs Manchester City
Manchester City (-145)
Manchester City are only three points ahead of United in the table, but City have been far and away the better team according to the more advanced statistics. City are second in the league in xGD at +14.5 compared to -0.5 for Manchester United (11th).
These teams were the top-two finishers in the league last season, but City won the title by 12 points and they had +42.0 xGD compared to just a +18.0 xGD for United. City appear to be in a class above United once again this season, and they should expect to win even being away from home. United will also be without star midfielder Paul Pogba who will be suspended due to a red card against Liverpool two weeks ago.
Crystal Palace vs Wolves
Wolves are in great form at the moment.
They have moved up to seventh place in the league due to their recent play. Wolves are 4-1-0 in their last 5 matches -- including a 2-1 win over Everton last weekend.
Palace are having their typical lower-mid table season, as they are 2-6-2. That is currently good enough for 13th place. They are +0.1 in xGD, which lags slightly behind Wolves (+1.6).
Wolves are the better side, and they are in much better form than Palace. Palace will certainly make it difficult for them, but this is a value play at +200.