FanDuel Soccer: EPL DFS Helper for 10/23/21
Newcastle (+290) at Crystal Palace (-110)
Over 2.5 Goals: -102 | Most Likely to Score: Edouard/Zaha (+145)
Burnley (+290) at Southampton (-105)
Over 2.5 Goals: +100 | Most Likely to Score: A. Armstrong/Adams (+185)
Wolves (+180) at Leeds (+155)
Over 2.5 Goals: -112 | Most Likely to Score: Jimenez (+130)
Watford (+460) at Everton (-155)
Over 2.5 Goals: -104 | Most Likely to Score: Rondon (+130)
Manchester City (-260) at Brighton (+700)
Over 2.5 Goals: -122 | Most Likely to Score: Jesus (+135)
As is usually the case when Manchester City are on a slate, they're the biggest favorite. City are -260 to win at Brighton, and per a study I did last year, those win odds make them a team we can stack. City are -190 to score at least two goals while no other side is better than -135 to score two-plus.
I will say this: Brighton aren't a pushover. They were expected goal (xG) darlings a year ago and have gotten off to a good start this campaign, sitting in fourth. But ironically, Brighton's xG numbers -- per FBRef -- are worse this year than they were last season, when they finished 16th. I don't have much hesitation about stacking City.
Gabriel Jesus ($21; +135) and Kevin De Bruyne ($22; +240) are the two highest-salaried healthy players available to us. Jesus carries City's best goal odds, and KDB is KDB. While De Bruyne hasn't been in top form so far this year, he's still averaging 16.7 FanDuel points per game and is ramping things up, scoring a goal in two straight. He has, however, lost a lot of corners to Ilkay Gundogan ($14; +280) and Phil Foden ($17; +200), which dings his DFS outlook.
Riyad Mahrez ($18; +175), Raheem Sterling $17; +160) and Jack Grealish ($18; +240) need to be on our radar if they start. I have more interest in Sterling and Greslish if they are deployed out wide instead of as a false-nine.
After City, Everton are in the best spot. The Toffees are -115 to win at home versus Watford while being -135 to score at least two -- both of which are the second-best marks on the slate. Watford have conceded the fourth-most xG.
With Dominic Calvert-Lewin out, Richarlison ($20; +170) and Solomon Rondon ($14; +130) should lead the line for Everton. Richarlison has the name value, but Rondon is lower in salary and carries better goal odds. I think Demari Gray ($16; +310) is one of the slate's best options. He's scored at least 15.2 FanDuel points in six of his past seven games. He's produced 15.2, 16.2 and 16.2 FanDuel points over his last three, generating six chances created, two shots on goal and one assist in that span.
The Leeds-Wolves fixture is -112 to go over 2.5 goals, and Leeds has routinely shown that their playing style makes their matches fantasy-friendly environments for both sides.
I have a lot of interest in Wolves' Raul Jimenez ($19; +130), who has the match's top goal odds and is tied with Rondon for the best goal odds on the slate. Jimenez didn't start in Wolves last league match, but prior to that, he had ripped off FanDuel outputs of 25.6 and 33.2 in his past two, scoring one goal and notching a pair of assists in that time. This open match should suit him.
On the Leeds side, they continue to be plagued by injuries, with Patrick Bamford out once more. Raphinha ($19; +360) has poor goal odds for the salary but is a good enough playmaker to be worth considering. Rodrigo ($17; +250) and Dan James ($14; +310) are more economical ways to get exposure to Leeds.
Added time -- Palace have been playing well of late. Odsonne Edouard ($19; +145) already has two games with 30-plus FanDuel points and can take advantage of a shoddy Newcastle defense, as can Wilfried Zaha ($18; +145), who is expected to return. ... Newcastle's Callum Wilson ($19; +175) owns solid goal odds and might slip through the cracks at his salary. ... Southampton's Armando Broja ($17; +200) got his first league goal for the Saints last weekend and is in a nice spot versus Burnley.
I'm usually a fan of saving some coin at defender, and this is a good slate to do so as there aren't many high-upside full-backs at the top of the player pool.
Joao Cancelo ($14) is one exception. He's been stellar this campaign, averaging 16.7 FanDuel points per game while scoring at least 13.9 in every match. If I go for a high-salary defender, he'll be it.
Factoring in salary, Lucas Digne ($11) is one of my favorite plays on the slate. The Everton left-back was often salaried among the elite defenders the past few seasons, and he's scored at least 14.5 FanDuel points in three straight while dipping under 8.6 FanDuel points just once all year. He created four chances at home against Burnley earlier this season and could do something similar with Everton a sizable home favorite over Watford.
Brighton's defenders should be very busy. Shane Duffy ($13), Lewis Dunk ($11) and Dan Burn ($10) are expected to start at center-back in their three-at-the-back formation and offer good floors.
Leeds' defenders are usually solid plays, and Pascal Struijk ($7) is an enticing value target. He's totaled at least 9.1 FanDuel points in four of his five starts. A little higher in salary, Diego Llorente ($10) and Liam Cooper ($11) are averaging 13.4 and 13.8 FanDuel points per game, respectively.
Added time -- Watford center-back Craig Cathcart ($9) should push for double-digit FanDuel points as a road underdog at Everton. Teammate Jeremy Ngakia ($6) is the lowest-salaried projected starter. ... Wolves' Conor Coady ($8), Marcal ($8) and Nelson Semedo ($9) are all easy to get behind at their salaries in what should be a high-paced affair at Leeds. ... This is one of the best matchups to get forward that Palace's Tyrick Mitchell ($11) will have all season, and with Digne at the same salary, Mitchell could go overlooked.
Ederson ($13) and Pickford ($12) are the top plays, and they are salaried as such.
Ederson is the biggest favorite (-266) and has the best clean-sheet odds (+100). Pickford sits second in both stats, with Everton +155 to win and +124 to keep a clean sheet. I prefer Ederson of the two. He's better, City are better and the salary difference is just $1.
If I can't get to Ederson, I'm super intrigued by Alex McCarthy ($11) and Vicente Guaita ($11).
McCarthy's Saints are -105 to beat a Burnley, and he's +162 to keep a clean sheet. The Clarets have the fifth-fewest xG. As for Guaita, he's at home against Newcastle. The Eagles are -110 to win, and Guaita is +168 to keep a clean sheet.
Added time -- Nick Pope ($8) is taking on a Southampton side that has scored just six times through eight matches, and we know Pope is pretty good. The negative is that the Saints have produced 11.1 xG, so they're due to score some goals. ... If you go light on City attackers, Robert Sanchez ($6) makes sense as a low-salary punt. Brighton have conceded the fifth-fewest xG through eight matches a year after allowing the third-fewest xG. City can thrash anyone if they're firing, but there is a path for Sanchez to have a good fantasy day.