Premier League Betting Guide for Matchweek 9
Which Premier League matches offer betting value on Soccer odd this week?
Let's see where we can zero in.
Please note that lines are subject to change after this article is published, which impacts betting advice. All betting lines were taken from FanDuel Sportsbook, and you can check here to see the most updated numbers. You can also check out oddsFire to get a feel for the line movement of each match.
Arsenal vs. Aston Villa
Aston Villa and Draw -120
Arsenal continues to be the biggest disappointment in the EPL, as they are having yet another mediocre season. The Gunners finished 18W-7D-13L last year, which got them eighth place, and this season they are off to another slow start at 3-2-3.
Arsenal are also -4.3 in expected goal differential (xGD), which ranks 16th, so if anything, they are fortunate to be 12th in the table.
Aston Villa are currently a point behind Arsenal in the table, but they are ahead by five goals on goal difference and ahead by 2.3 goals on xGD. This projects to be an evenly matched game at Arsenal, but the Gunners are still a decent favorite.
Villa should expect at least a draw on Friday, and at +300, they are not a bad pick to win the match.
Crystal Palace vs. Newcastle
Newcastle and Draw -130
Crystal Palace are -110 to win this game, but wins are always hard to come by for the Eagles. Palace are 1-5-2 this season, winning at a 12.5% rate. Last season, they won 12 of 38 matches, winning at a 31.6% rate. Palace also finished behind Newcastle in the standings last season, and they were well behind on xGD (-13.0 for Newcastle versus -25.0 for Palace).
Newcastle are off to a very slow start themselves at 0-3-5, but even so, they can get at least a point from this match. The Magpies are 0-3-1 against teams currently in the bottom half of the table, so while they’re not winning those games just yet, they usually do enough to at least earn a point.
Palace are likely the better side, but they're not that much better than Newcastle. So getting Newcastle at -130 to win or draw on Saturday is enticing.
Manchester United vs. Liverpool
Liverpool to Win +125
Liverpool seem to be back to the form from their title-winning season, as they are 5-3-0 with a +16 goal differential through their first eight games. Jurgen Klopp’s side have scored 22 goals in eight games, which is 6 more than the next-highest team, and the side's 21.5 xG backs up their goal tally.
It is early in the season, but Liverpool appear to be the best and most exciting team in the league right now.
Manchester United are 4-2-2 and only 4 points behind Liverpool, yet their +1.1 xGD is far from impressive. United have been in poor form in the league recently, as they are 0-1-2 in their last three matches, including losses to Aston Villa and Leicester, both of whom are currently in the bottom half of the table.
Liverpool are flying high at the moment, and United look out of sorts. Getting Liverpool to win Sunday at plus odds is a steal.