Premier League Betting Guide for Matchweek 7
Which Premier League matches offer betting value on Soccer odd this week?
Let's see where we can zero in.
Please note that lines are subject to change after this article is published, which impacts betting advice. All betting lines were taken from FanDuel Sportsbook, and you can check here to see the most updated numbers. You can also check out oddsFire to get a feel for what the betting public is doing for each match.
Manchester United vs. Everton
Everton and Draw +165
Everton and Manchester United are both off to good starts this season, and they each boast a record of 4W-1D-1L through their first six league games. Manchester United are slightly ahead on goal difference -- +8 compared to +5 for Everton -- but Everton are slightly ahead on expected goal difference (xGD), per FBRef, at +3.7 compared to +3.2 for United.
Dating back to last season, Everton finished 17-8-13, giving them a win/draw rate of 65.79%. while Manchester United lost or drew 44.73% of their games last season. The +160 betting line correlates to implied odds of 38.46%, which is lower than both United’s draw/loss rate and Everton’s win/draw rate from a campaign ago.
Based on last season’s stats and this season’s early results, Everton should have a better chance to win/draw than the +165 price implies.
Burnley vs. Norwich
Norwich and Draw -120
This game features the two worst teams in the league so far this season -- with Burnley in 19th place after starting 0-2-4 and Norwich in last with an 0-0-6 mark. Both teams are also in the bottom two in xGD with Burnley at -4.4 and Norwich at -7.7.
Burnley performed poorly in the EPL last season, too, finishing 10-9-19 with a -17.7 xGD. Burnley won only 26.32% of their games last season and went 2-3-1 in their six league games against the bottom three from that season.
While Norwich will likely finish in the bottom three this year, Burnley have not shown the ability to defeat even the weakest EPL opponents on a consistent basis. Norwich should expect to get their first points of the season this weekend.
West Ham vs. Brentford
Brentford and Draw +100
Brentford are newly promoted to the EPL this season, but they have started off the campaign playing quality soccer. They tied first-place Liverpool in a wild 3-3 game last weekend, and the result was no fluke. Liverpool outshot Brentford just 16-12 in total shots and 6-4 in shots on target, so the game was not very one-sided.
Brentford are 2-3-1 overall, and even in their only defeat of the season, they outshot their opponent (Brighton) 7-4. They have an xGD of +2.3 on the year.
West Ham are 3-2-1 this season with a 3.4 xGD, and they are coming off a 19-8-11 season last year, which was good enough for sixth place. The Hammers have a 50% win rate in their last 44 games, so the betting line of +100 for Brentford win/draw is logical. Considering Brentford are in such strong form at the moment, it makes sense to lean on the Bees to get a positive result.
