Premier League Betting Guide for Matchweek 38
Which Premier League matches offer betting value on Soccer odd? Let's see where we can zero in.
Please note that lines are subject to change after this article is published, which impacts betting advice. All betting lines were taken from FanDuel Sportsbook, and you can check here to see their most updated numbers. You can also look at our oddsFire tool to get a feel for what the betting public is doing.
Arsenal vs. Brighton
Brighton +1 (no push) +130
Arsenal enter the last game of the EPL season with a chance to move up to as high as seventh place, but there is no doubt that this campaign has been a major disappointment for the Gunners. Arsenal are currently 17W-7D-13L giving them only a 45.9% win rate, and if they lose versus Brighton, they could finish the season in 10th place.
Brighton are 9-14-14 this season, giving them a win/draw rate of 62.2%. Brighton have not gotten the results they have deserved this season, as their expected goal difference of +14.7 ranks fifth in the league, per FBRef, and is much better than Arsenal’s +8.3 expected goal difference.
The gap between the two sides is not as large as the betting line indicates. Brighton should have a very good chance to earn at least a point in this game, so they are a good bet to win or draw.
Sheffield United vs. Burnley
Burnley to win +145
Sheffield United are in last place and have had a horrific season by any metric. The Blades are 6-2-29, so they are losing 78.4% of their games. They rank last in the league in goal difference (-44) and 19th in the league in expected goal difference (-33.3).
Burnley are only in 17th themselves, but they have been much better than Sheffield United, nearly doubling the Blades' point total so far this season (39 points for Burnley, 20 for Sheffield United). Burnley are 23 goals ahead of Sheffield on actual goal difference and 12.4 goals ahead on expected goal difference.
There is no doubt that Burnley is the superior team in this matchup. Getting them at +145 to win is pretty appealing.
Leicester vs. Tottenham
Tottenham to win +230
Leicester City are currently trailing Liverpool on goal difference for fourth place in the league. The Foxes will have a chance to qualify for the Champions League if they defeat Tottenham on Sunday.
Tottenham are 17-8-12 this season, putting them in seventh place, just seven points behind Leicester City. Spurs trail Leicester by 3.5 goals on expected goal difference, but they do lead Leicester by one goal in actual goal difference.
There is not much separating these two sides in terms of results this season, and even on expected goal difference, the edge is only slightly in Leicester’s favor. The betting line of +230 on Spurs to win is a solid value.
