Premier League Betting Guide for Matchweek 36
Which Premier League matches offer betting value on FanDuel Sportsbook? Let's see where we can zero in.
Please note that lines are subject to change after this article is published, which impacts betting advice. All betting lines were taken from FanDuel Sportsbook, and you can check here to see their most updated numbers. You can also look at our oddsFire tool to get a feel for what the betting public is doing.
West Ham at Brighton
Brighton to Win (+185) or Draw (+250)
One look at the table, and you'd be quick to put down some coin on West Ham to get all three points at their price of +145 to win. But oddsmakers know what they're doing, and there is a reason the 5th-place Hammers are just +145 to win at a Brighton side that sits 17th and flirted with relegation this campaign.
By expected goals (xG), Brighton have been the better side this season, ranking fifth in xG goal differential per 90 minutes (+0.41), according to FBRef. West Ham, meanwhile, are at +0.08 xG per 90. While that's a solid ninth-best clip, it's a good distance short of Brighton's mark.
Of course, xG isn't the be all and end all. It hasn't been just bad luck for Brighton; their finishing has been consistently poor. But it is hard to deny how much better Brighton are than a normal 17th-place side, especially on D, where the Seagulls have surrendered the third-fewest xG (34.4 in 35 matches).
While West Ham have a lot more to play for as they fight for a European place, they're stumbling down the stretch, losing three of their past four EPL fixtures. That run includes a 3-2 defeat versus lowly Newcastle, and West Ham's one win in that span was a victory over Burnley in which both sides had 1.8 xG.
According to my simulations, Brighton win this match 47.4% of the time and get a draw 25.4% of the time. They're a great value at the current lines.
Leeds at Burnley
Over 2.5 Goals (-142)
Leeds have been amazing this season -- both to watch and in terms of their achievement. Not only are they in 10th in their first campaign back in the top flight, Leeds have been really entertaining to watch all year long, playing an aggressive style and showing little fear against the top sides.
The one downside to their style of play has been that Leeds concede a lot of chances. That's led to them allowing 58.6 xG, which is tied for second-most in the league. The only teams in their ballpark in terms of xG allowed are West Brom (59.7) and Sheffield United (58.6), two of the three teams that are going down.
Leeds compensate for this by generating gobs of chances themselves as their 51.9 xG is the sixth-most. That's led to a combined xG created and allowed of 110.5 in 35 matches. Only one other squad -- Liverpool (104) -- has a total of more than 95.0.
Burnley may be the EPL side that is the most opposite of Leeds in terms of playing style, but the Clarets haven't been quite as stout defensively this season as they have been in the past, surrendering the fifth-most xG (51.8).
There have been more than 2.5 goals scored in six of Burnley's least seven league matches, with the one exception being their 2-0 win last time out against a Fulham side that was very blah in attack.
Leeds' matches have gone over 2.5 goals in four of their last seven outings, but it easily could've been more. Their 1-1 draw with Liverpool contained a total of 4.1 xG while their 2-0 defeat against Brighton had 3.4 total xG.
My model has this match going over 2.5 goals 69.3% of the time. The -142 line implies odds of 58.7%, so there's value in taking the over.