Premier League Betting Guide for Matchweek 26
Which Premier League matches offer betting value on Soccer odd? Let's see where we can zero in.
Please note that lines are subject to change after this article is published, which impacts betting advice. All betting lines were taken from FanDuel Sportsbook, and you can check here to see their most updated numbers. You can also look at our oddsFire tool to get a feel for what the betting public is doing.
West Brom vs. Brighton
Brighton to win -105
West Brom are 2W-8D-15L, and they have proven over the course of the season that they are one of the worst teams -- if not the worst team -- in the EPL this season. West Brom are 19th in the table with 14 points, only 3 ahead of last-place Sheffield United. West Brom are buried in last on expected goal difference at -25.2, per FBRef, which is 8.7 goals worse than 19th-ranked Crystal Palace.
On the flip side, Brighton do not appear to be a particularly strong team at 5-11-9, but their expected goal difference of +9.3 is good enough for fifth-best in the table. At this stage of the season, it is safe to say Brighton’s expected difference is overstating their true ability, but even if that is the case, this still indicates Brighton have surely a vastly superior squad to West Brom's.
Brighton should expect to get three points from this game.
Leeds vs. Aston Villa
Aston Villa to win +200
Aston Villa have slightly outpaced Leeds this season, as they are one point ahead of the Leeds with two games in hand. Villa are also 7 goals up on expected goal difference and are 6 spots ahead in WhoScored.com’s expected goal difference, so they are are ahead on several key metrics.
Another interesting note of significance is that Aston Villa have only three draws this season, while Leeds only have two. Sheffield United is the only other team in the league with three or fewer draws. This game seems likely to have a winner, and with Aston Villa being the superior side by most measurements, betting on them to win at 2-1 seems like a wise decision.
Leicester vs. Arsenal
Leicester to win +145
Arsenal has had a rollercoaster season, but overall they are 10-4-11, which puts them in 11th place in the table. The Gunners did win a thrilling Europa League tie midweek against Benfica, but they have not been in great form in the league, having gone 1-1-3 in their last five.
Leicester are still toward the top of the table in third place with a 15-4-6 record, and they figure to have a good chance to finish in the top four as they are six points ahead of fifth-place Chelsea. The Foxes are 3-1-0 in their last four, so they are on a good run and have the superior body of work throughout this season.
Leicester are the better and are in better form, so getting them to win at plus odds is a good betting opportunity.
