FanDuel Soccer: Champions League DFS Helper for 2/17/21
The Champions League is back for the Round of 16, and we get a two-game slate today on FanDuel that kicks off at 3 p.m. EST. All betting lines come from FanDuel Sportsbook, and they may change after the article is published.
|Dortmund at Sevilla||Sevilla (+130)||-118||En-Nesyri (-115)|
|Juventus at Porto||Juventus (+105)||+120||Ronaldo (-110)|
With Dortmund and Juventus struggling, this slate is pretty balanced. It's Sevilla who have the best odds to go over 1.5 goals, per FanDuel Sportsbook, but they're still just +114 to do so. Normally, this would be a slate where we'd want to load up on Juventus, but they're far from top form and are just +128 to go over 1.5 goals. Dortmund (over 1.5 goal odds of +162) and Porto (+255) don't figure to be scoring a lot of goals, either, so we could get a low-scoring slate.
Let's start with the Sevilla-Dortmund match.
Julen Lopetegui has Sevilla playing well, and they took advantage of a fairly nice draw to get out of their group. They haven't been great in attack in La Liga, totaling only 30.3 expected goals in 22 matches, according to FBRef, but they're getting a huge campaign from Youssef En-Nesyri ($20; -115), who has bagged 13 goals domestically. He has the best anytime goal odds on the slate. On the downside, En-Nesyri doesn't take penalties and has zero assists across all competitions, so he's a goal-or-nothing DFS asset.
We'll have to see how Sevilla line up, but WhoScored.com predicts Papu Gomez ($18; +210) and Suso ($12; +290) to start alongside En-Nesyri in a front three. Gomez was a monster at Atalanta before moving to Sevilla in January. He has only one goal in three starts, but we know he has the play-making chops to be a DFS stud. He finished last season with seven goals and 16 assists in Serie A action for free-flowing Atalanta.
For Dortmund, they have the attacking talent to put a few past Sevilla if they're clicking. BVB have generated 42.7 expected goals in 21 Bundesliga matches. They have been shut out only once all year, and that came back in Matchweek 2 in domestic play.
Erling Haaland ($21; +105) has followed up last season's breakout effort with 15 goals and three assists in 15 Bundesliga starts. He's the clear main man for BVB, as no other Dortmund player has more than four goals. He's fired 11 shots across his last four league outings, putting seven on target, and he looks to be the team's first-choice penalty taker, taking their most recent pen when both he and Marco Reus ($17; +210) were on the pitch. He checks every box and will be a popular play for a reason.
If you want to dodge the Haaland chalk, you can opt for Reus or Jadon Sancho ($19; +230). Sancho is down a level or two from where he was last season, producing only four goals and seven assists in league play, but he's plenty capable of doing damage and should come at a sliver of the draft percentage of Haaland. Reus has three goals and four assists in the Bundesliga and has better goal odds than Sancho. Raphael Guerreiro ($12: +500) will likely play full-back or wing-back, but he's listed as a midfielder on FanDuel. Instead of being a smashing defender option, he's just a solid point-per-dollar play in a forward/midfield slot. He's been outstanding this campaign, totaling two goals and eight assists.
Juventus are fourth in Serie A and are having their worst campaign in some time. You can certainly make a case for fading the always popular Cristiano Ronaldo ($24; -110), but on a slate where goals will likely be hard to come by, it's tough to bet against CR7 in a trip to his home country. Ronaldo is pouring in goals once again, netting 16 in 17 Serie A starts while adding two assists. He'll take penalties and has multi-goal upside whenever he takes the pitch.
Alvaro Morata ($20; +155) and Federico Chiesa ($15; +230) are solid options if you want to pass on Ronaldo. Morata has tallied four goals with seven assists in league play, and the goal odds are good. In the group stage, he was routinely under-rostered with the masses flocking to Ronaldo. Chiesa has five goals and three assists, and he took four shots last weekend against Napoli. Factoring in salary, Chiesa is one of my favorite plays on the slate.
Porto are the least appealing side of the four, but on a two-match slate, we can't write them off. However, Juve have been stout defensively, allowing only two goals -- one apiece to Inter and Napoli -- across their last eight matches in all competitions. Sergio Oliveira ($15; +340) and Mehdi Taremi ($9; +230) are the top options for Porto. Oliveira's goal tally of nine in the Primeira Liga is boosted by seven penalties. But he's also got four assists, and the role from the spot carries weight in DFS. Taremi leads the side in goals with 10 despite making seven appearances as a sub and only 12 starts. If he starts, I'll be interested.
Added time -- Ivan Rakitic ($14; +480) is having a nice season in his first campaign back with Sevilla. The goal odds aren't all that fun, but he should play a key role in Sevilla's attack. ... Moussa Marega ($18; +200) has netted five goals for Porto and usually starts on the forward line. ... If Federico Bernardeschi ($10; +220) starts for Juve, he'd be enticing at his modest salary.
Since Guerrero is listed in midfield, it's a pretty weak slate for defenders.
With Jesus Navas ($14) looking very iffy for Sevilla, Aleix Vidal ($6) and Karim Rekik ($9) are the expected starters at full-back for Sevilla. Neither have offered too much in attack this season, but if either of these matches were to break out into an open affair, I think it would probably be the BVB-Sevilla clash. If Navas is deemed fit, he'd be an excellent play.
Juan Cuadrado's injury means Danilo ($8) and Alex Sandro ($14) will likely start at full-back for Juve. I'd imagine Juve see a decent amount of the ball against Porto, which should give these two chances to get forward. Danilo has one goal and three assists this season. He will likely be a go-to salary saver for a lot of people. Sandro has been a part-time player this year but has shown some attacking upside in the past.
Added time -- Jules Kounde ($11) is a top talent and scored a superb goal against Barcelona recently. That was his lone goal of the season, so we shouldn't expect another one, but he did produce 13.6 FanDuel points per game in the group stage, including three games of at least 19.1 FanDuel points. ... Chancel Mbemba ($13) should be fairly busy against Juve. He averaged 14.8 FanDuel points in the group stage, all from defensive actions.
The top clean sheet odds, as well as the best win odds, belong to Juventus' Wojciech Szczęsny ($14). After Szczęsny, no other keeper is better than +215 to keep a clean sheet, which should make the Poland international the most popular pick in goal by a good distance.
As I mentioned earlier, Juve's struggles haven't been at the back, as they've shipped a mere two goals across their last eight matches, and those came to Napoli and Inter. Porto managed 10 goals in six group-stage fixtures in the fall, but they scored just one in their two bouts with Manchester City, the only top-tier side in their group. Szczęsny checks a lot of boxes, and unless you're fading Juve's attackers, he's the top play on the board.
After Szczęsny, I lean toward Bono ($12), but I say that with very little conviction. The other three keepers are all about the same for me. Sevilla's +215 odds to keep a clean sheet are the second-best on the slate, and Sevilla have kept seven straight clean sheets, including a shutout win over Barcelona in the Copa del Rey. In lineups where I use Bono, I'll likely fade Haaland and Dortmund's attackers to correlate.
Added time -- Marwin Hitz ($9), who should start for Dortmund, has the worst clean-sheet odds on the slate (+290), but it wouldn't be that shocking to see BVB blank Sevilla. ... It feels risky to start Agustin Marchesin ($8), but Porto are +260 to keep a clean sheet. Using Marchesin and fading Juve's attackers -- specifically Ronaldo -- will make your lineup unique, something that's not easy to do on a two-gamer.