FanDuel Soccer: EPL DFS Helper for 2/6/21
|Brighton at Burnley||Brighton (+125)||+144||Maupay (+170)|
|Southampton at Newcastle||Southampton (+160)||-102||Ings (-110)|
|West Ham at Fulham||West Ham (+100)||-104||Antonio (+125)|
|Everton at Manchester United||Manchester United (-195)||-148||Cavani (+105)|
At the top of the player pool, we have a clear top four in Bruno Fernandes ($23; +110), Marcus Rashford ($22; +130), Michail Antonio ($21; +125) and Danny Ings ($19; -110). I'm going to do everything I can to get three of these four in my lineups, and factoring in salary, I rank them Ings, Bruno, Antonio and Rashford.
Ings looks like the best point-per-dollar play on the slate, and I'd expect him to be chalk. Southampton are at Newcastle, and it's a perfect bounce-back spot for a Saints side that would likely love to get a statement win after a 9-0 loss at Old Trafford midweek. Ings -- who will be on pens -- carries the slate's best goal odds, and the Magpies have allowed the fifth-most expected goals, per FBRef.
If you want to fade the Ings chalk, which is something I'll strongly consider, James Ward-Prowse ($18; +260) and Che Adams ($15; +185) are in play for the Saints. JWP handles a lot of set-piece work and has four goals with five assists in EPL play on the year. Adams holds nice goal odds and has recorded four goals with four assists this campaign.
United are coming off said 9-0 win and are the biggest favorite on the slate for their home clash with Everton. They're going to be popular. I'd advise against stacking the Red Devils, however. At -195 to win, United don't meet the stacking threshold, per a study I did last spring, and my simulations aren't as high on United as FanDuel Sportsbook is. United are -186 to go over 1.5 goals, which is by far the best clip on the slate, but my sims have them scoring two-plus goals only 51.6% of the time, which reflects a line of -107. I may be too low on the Red Devils, but this shapes up as a spot where I'll likely end up being underweight on them.
With that said, Fernandes is a top play, as usual. He went nuts in the 9-0 win midweek, totaling 65.5 FanDuel points. That actually snapped a streak of five straight games with fewer than 20 FanDuel points for the Portuguese star, but we know what kind of floor/ceiling combination he brings to the table. Rashford, meanwhile, has just one goal and one assist across his last seven league games. He's certainly over-salaried. But he will probably be the least popular of the foursome I rattled off at the jump, so I'm interested in him in tournaments. Edinson Cavani ($17; +105) is expected to be a go and has the best goal odds on United.
Antonio and West Ham are red-hot and get a dream road date with Fulham. Despite being only +100 to win, West Ham have the second-best odds of scoring two-plus goals (+112), and my model hands them a 51.5% chance of doing so, which is basically dead even with what I have for Man United. I'll be on the Hammers, and they have a few appealing options. Antonio is the pick of the litter. He's managed five goals and three assists in 12 EPL starts, and he usually takes penalties unless Mark Noble is on the pitch. He's put at least one shot on goal in six straight matches and posted at least 18.0 FanDuel points in four of those games.
West Ham do have other quality options in Tomas Soucek ($18; +260), Jarrod Bowen ($16; +240), Jesse Lingard ($14; +220) and Said Benrahma ($9; +260). Soucek has been immense this season, netting eight goals, but it's hard to love him at his increased salary given that he hasn't put a shot on goal in three of his past five games. I much prefer the other three guys. Benrahma is an outstanding point-per-dollar pick who has created eight chances, tallied one assist and fired two shots on goal over his last three outings.
Brighton are only +125 favorites at Burnley, but going by expected goals, they should be bigger favorites. Brighton are seventh in expected goal differential, and their results are finally catching up to their quality of play as they've beaten Spurs and Liverpool in their last two games. Burnley are 19th by expected goal difference. My simulations have Brighton scoring two-plus goals 45.1% of the time, which is third behind Manchester United and West Ham.
Neal Maupay ($16; +170) and Leandro Trossard ($14; +270) are the top plays for Brighton. If Alexis Mac Allister ($9; +440) is deemed fit, I'd be very interested in him. He has scored at least 12.5 FanDuel points in each of his past three games, generating six chances created in that span, and the salary fits in perfectly alongside three of the big four I led off with.
Added time -- My simulations have Everton getting shut out just 31% of the time, so they are a good place to look for an under-the-radar goal-scorer. Dominic Calvert-Lewin ($18; +200) will almost surely see a low draft percentage at his lofty salary while Richarlison ($15; +300) has some appeal, as well. ... This may be the game Allan Saint-Maximin ($11; +280) gets back in the starting XI for Newcastle, and he's capable of a big day versus the Saints. ... Ashley Barnes ($12; +220) and Aleksandar Mitrovic ($12; +160) have low salaries and aren't bad dart throws.
Aaron Cresswell ($12) is easy to like at this salary. He's averaging 14.1 FanDuel points per game for the season and has created seven chances over West Ham's last four games. Aided by his role on corners and free kicks, Cresswell has become a steady DFS option who also has some upside. Facing Fulham, he should be able to get forward plenty and tap into his ceiling.
It didn't take long for Lucas Digne ($14) to get back up among the high-salary defenders. He's rattled off 22.9 and 21.7 FanDuel points over his last two and has four assists across his past five EPL matches. As always, his set-piece work boosts his floor and ceiling.
When attacking against United, Digne will run into a lot of Aaron Wan-Bissaka ($15), the Red-Devils' defensively excellent right-back. AWB has scored at least 10.2 FanDuel points in nine straight games and has upped his attacking numbers of late, which has led to upside games of 27.9 and 32.8 in his past two. He's created six chances across his last four and scored a goal in the mauling of Southampton.
Fulham's Tosin Adarabioyo ($12) has been very productive this season, scoring at least 12.8 FanDuel points in 11 of his past 12 games. He's registered merely two chances created and two shots on goal in that span, so the upside isn't really there, but that floor is appealing this salary. Versus Leicester last time out, he amassed 15.6 of his 20.6 FanDuel points via defensive actions and can do something similar against the Hammers.
Added time -- Ryan Bertrand ($9) and Kayne Ramsay ($5) are listed as probable starters at full-back for Southampton. Up against a Newcastle side that sits next to last in possession (39.2%), both should have chances to go forward. Ramsay had 10.4 FanDuel points midweek in his first start of the campaign. ... Matt Ritchie ($7) might be back in the lineup for the Magpies, and he produced 14.2 and 17.7 FanDuel points in his last two starts. Anything in that neighborhood on Saturday would be plenty good for the $7 salary.
Robert Sanchez ($11) will likely be the chalk goalie on the slate, and there's a lot to like about his situation. He's taking on a Burnley side that is having all sorts of trouble scoring goals, netting only 13 in 21 league matches. Their expected goal total of 16.7 isn't much better. Brighton are +140 to keep a clean sheet, which is the second-best number on the slate, but my simulations have them blanking the Clarets a slate-best (by a lot) 51.8% of the time. I'm always hesitant to swallow chalk at goalie, but Sanchez checks a lot of boxes and comes at a modest salary.
The top win odds belong to David de Gea ($14), and he also has the best clean-sheet odds (+130), per FanDuel Sportsbook. But my model isn't as high on his clean-sheet chances as I have United holding Everton without a goal only 31.0% of the time. That's actually just fourth-best on the slate. Unless you're really craving the win bonus, de Gea isn't worth the slate-high salary in my eyes.
If I move off Sanchez, it'll be for Lukasz Fabianski ($12) or Alex McCarthy ($10). If you're not thrilled about trusting the Saints' defense, I can't blame you, but McCarthy has a great matchup against a Newcastle attack that isn't very good. My model has Southampton getting a clean sheet 36.2% of the time. As for Fabianski, the date with Fulham is a friendly one, and his win odds (+100) are second-best on the slate. I have Fulham getting shut out 40.8% of the time, giving West Ham the second-best clean-sheet odds by my simulations.
Added time -- If you don't use any Brighton attackers, Nick Pope ($9) is worth a look. Burnley are a respectable +210 to keep a clean sheet, and this could be a letdown spot for Brighton after two big wins. ... It would be a very West Ham thing to do to lay an egg at Fulham just as everyone starts buying in to the Hammers' success. Alphonse Areola ($7) is someone I'll at least consider in lineups I don't have any West Ham attackers.