Premier League Betting Guide for Matchweek 20
Which Premier League matches offer betting value on Soccer odd? Let's see where we can zero in.
Please note that lines are subject to change after this article is published, which impacts betting advice. All betting lines were taken from FanDuel Sportsbook, and you can check here to see their most updated numbers. You can also look at our oddsFire tool to get a feel for what the betting public is doing.
Leeds vs. Newcastle
Leeds to win -110
Leeds are off to a 7W-2D-9L start in the EPL this season and they have had success against the lower part of the table. Leeds are 5-0-1 against the bottom six teams in the league, including a 5-2 win against Newcastle earlier in the season.
Newcastle are firmly in the bottom six in the table at the moment, so this game should be right in Leeds’ wheelhouse. The Magpies are 5-4-10 this year in league play. They are only 4 points behind Leeds in the table but they are way behind on expected goal difference, as Leeds rank 12th at -3.1 expected goal difference, while Newcastle rank 19th with a -11.7 expected goal difference.
Leeds are clearly the much better side and they have had great success against the bottom portion of the table, so they should be looking to get three full points in this game.
Southampton vs. Arsenal
Arsenal to win +130
Arsenal have finally started to turn their season around after a brutal start. The Gunners have gone 4-1-0 in their last five league games and they have outscored their opponents 11-2 during that time period.
Southampton are somewhat trending in the opposite direction, as they got off to a good start but have since cooled off. The Saints are just 1-3-2 in their last 6 games. Overall, Southampton are still ahead of Arsenal by 2 points in the table but the Gunners are 8.2 goals ahead on expected goal difference, so we should not be surprised that Arsenal are quickly closing the gap between the two sides in the table.
Burnley vs. Aston Villa
Aston Villa to win +105
Villa are having a good season and are in 8th place with a 9-2-6 record. However, they are fairing better in expected goal difference at +7.5, which ranks as the 4th-highest in the league.
Burnley are lagging way behind Villa by all metrics, including a 10-point deficit in the table despite having a game in hand. Expected goal difference is even less kind to Burnley, as their -10.6 expected goal difference ranks 18th in the league.
Villa have a good win rate this year, having won 9 of their first 17 matches and they are facing one of the worst teams in the league. Aston Villa should be expected to take all three points from this game.
