Premier League Betting Guide for Matchweek 17
Which Premier League matches offer betting value on Soccer odd? Let's see where we can zero in.
Please note that lines are subject to change after this article is published, which impacts betting advice. All betting lines were taken from FanDuel Sportsbook, and you can check here to see their most updated numbers. You can also look at our oddsFire tool to get a feel for what the betting public is doing.
Everton vs West Ham
West Ham +1 (no push) -120
Everton are having a strong season at 9W-2D-4L, and they are currently in fourth place with a potential chance to challenge for a Champions League spot next season. However, Everton have been the beneficiaries of many close results this season and are only 8th in the league in goal differential at +7 and are 9th in the league in expected goal difference at +1.7.
West Ham are having a decent season and at 6-5-5 they boast a 68.75% win/draw rate. West Ham are 6 spots below Everton in the table, but they are only 5 goals back on goal difference and only 2.6 goals back on expected goal difference, so the gap in talent may be smaller than the standings indicate.
West Ham should be able to get at least one point out of this match, and at almost even odds, this is a good betting opportunity.
Crystal Palace vs Sheffield United
Sheffield +1 (no push) -120
Sheffield to win +290
Sheffield are off to a horrific start to league play and are in dead last with only 2 points and no wins in their first 16 matches. Sheffield are already buried in last place, but they should have at least some optimism for slight improvement: they are 19th in expected goal differential with a gap of less than 2 expected goals compared to fellow relegation candidates Crystal Palace and Burnley.
Crystal Palace are 5-4-7 which is good enough for 15th place in the league, but their expected goal difference is actually the 4th-worst in the league at -7.9. This indicates that Crystal Palace may be the beneficiary of some good fortune early on this season despite their place in the standings not being great to begin with.
Sheffield United will be desperate for points in this one, and it figures to be one of the few winnable games on their schedule. Sheffield to win/draw at -120 is a safer play, but Sheffield to win at +290 also seems tempting as they may push for 3 points if the game is tied late.
Manchester United vs Aston Villa
Aston Villa +1 (no push) +115
Aston Villa have been spectacular this season, starting the year 8-2-4, good enough for 5th place despite having at least one game in hand over all four teams ahead of them in the table. Villa are also second in goal difference and fourth in expected goal difference, so their hot start has not been completely earned and not due to good fortune.
Manchester United are having a strong season as well, currently in second place at 9-3-3. However, United are actually behind Villa by 6 goals on goal difference and are 4.5 goals worse on expected goal difference. The Red Devils certainly have to superior reputation, but they will be challenged by a very good Aston Villa team.
