Premier League Betting Guide for Matchweek 16
Which Premier League matches offer betting value on FanDuel Sportsbook? Let's see where we can zero in.
Please note that lines are subject to change after this article is published, which impacts betting advice. All betting lines were taken from FanDuel Sportsbook, and you can check here to see their most updated numbers. You can also look at our oddsFire tool to get a feel for what the betting public is doing.
Brighton vs. Arsenal
Brighton to win +210
Arsenal got a huge win against Chelsea on Boxing Day to improve to 5-2-8 on the season, and they helped silence any idea that the club could possibly get relegated this season. However, the Gunners are still all the way down in 15th place, and the one victory against Chelsea is not enough to overshadow a poor overall body of work.
Brighton are ranked one spot behind Arsenal in the table, so this should figure to be an evenly matched game. Despite being behind on points and goal differential, Brighton are significantly ahead of the Gunners on expected goal difference, at +5.8 compared to -1.7.
Brighton have outshot their opponent in each of their last two matches but both still ended in draws, so they still appear to be close to breaking through even if the results have not shown it yet.
West Brom vs. Leeds
Leeds to win -105
Leeds are having a decent season in their return to the EPL, starting out 6-2-7 to begin the year. Leeds have won two out of their last three games, including a 5-2 thrashing of Newcastle. Overall, they have been very average, ranking 12th in points, 13th in goal difference, and 10th in expected goal difference.
West Brom are having an awful season at 1-5-9 with a league-worst -19 goal differential. West Brom’s expected goal difference is also worst in the league at -19, which is almost 10 goals worst than 19th ranked Sheffield United who are at -9.2.
West Brom are arguably even worse than a Sheffield United team that has only two points this season. Leeds are not a great team but they are good enough that they should be winning this game without much issue.
Southampton vs. West Ham
West Ham to win +210
This game figures to be incredibly evenly matched as both teams are essentially even in most major key categories. Southampton are 7-4-4 compared to 6-4-5 for West Ham. Southampton are also up 4 goals on goal difference but are 1.1 goals behind on expected goal difference.
This game appears to be almost entirely even and home-field advantage has been essentially a non-factor this season without fans. Home teams are winning 37% of their games this season compared to a 39% win rate away from home. Any home-field advantage Southampton could hope for will likely be negated.
Given the even nature of this game, West Ham at over 2-to-1 seems like a good betting opportunity. They are a somewhat significant underdog despite this game appearing to be an evenly matched contest.