Premier League Betting Guide for Matchweek 14
Which Premier League matches offer betting value on FanDuel Sportsbook? Let's see where we can zero in.
Please note that lines are subject to change after this article is published, which impacts betting advice. All betting lines were taken from FanDuel Sportsbook, and you can check here to see their most updated numbers. You can also look at ouroddsFire tool to get a feel for what the betting public is doing.
Everton vs. Arsenal
Everton to win +135
Arsenal’s miserable run toward the relegation zone continued in their midweek match against Southampton, as they dropped points for the sixth consecutive league game in a 1-1 draw. The Gunners are now 4W-2D-7L on the season with a -5 goal difference and a -2.2 expected goal difference, per FBRef.
Their opponent, Everton, is in fifth place at 7-2-4, and they’re in pretty good form, having won against Chelsea and Leicester City in their last two games. Everton are eighth in the league in expected goal difference, so they may be due for a slight decline in the future, but they are still six places ahead of Arsenal in that statistic.
Overall, Everton should be able to do enough to win this game against a struggling Arsenal team. At the moment, the Gunners should not be respected as a top team given the way they have played this season.
Brighton vs. Sheffield United
Brighton to win -145
Sheffield United took yet another defeat in their midweek match with Manchester United, losing 3-2 to drop them to a horrific 0-1-12 record this season. That record gives them a putrid 7.7% win/draw rate for the year. While they will likely improve on this record as the year progresses, there is no denying that the Blades are one of the worst teams in the league.
Brighton have struggled, as well, at 2-5-6, but they do own a +4 expected goal differential, which is actually the sixth highest in the EPL. Brighton have not had the results to show for it, but they are clearly a step above Sheffield and should be able to win this game against the last-place side in the league.
Tottenham vs. Leicester
Leicester to win +260
Tottenham are off to a great start this season and look like a legitimate title contender, but they may be larger favorites than deserved in this game. Spurs are 7-4-2 with a +13 goal difference, but their expected goal difference is lower at +4.5, giving them the fourth-ranked expected goal difference in the league.
Leicester are only one point behind Tottenham in the table and are quite close on expected goal difference at +3.5. Leicester also defeated Manchester City 5-2 earlier this season, so it is not as if the Blue Foxes are incapable of beating a top opponent.
This is a fairly evenly matched game, so getting Leicester at +260 is a good betting opportunity. Tottenham are a strong team, but the Foxes have been almost just as good in most statistical categories through the first 13 games of the season.