Premier League Betting Guide for Matchweek 13
Which Premier League matches offer betting value on Soccer odd? Let's see where we can zero in.
Please note that lines are subject to change after this article is published, which impacts betting advice. All betting lines were taken from FanDuel Sportsbook, and you can check here to see their most updated numbers. You can also look at our oddsFire tool to get a feel for what the betting public is doing.
Arsenal vs. Southampton
Southampton to Win +220
Arsenal are in full free-fall mode, having lost to relegation candidates Burnley over the weekend in a frustrating 1-0 loss that included a 2nd half red card from Granit Xhaha. The Gunners are quickly dropping towards the relegation zone themselves, as their record has dropped to 4W-1D-7L and they are down to 15th place in the table.
On the other side, Southampton have actually been quite good this season, as their 7-2-3 record is good enough to get them into the top 4. However, if we look at FBRef's expected goal difference we actually see that Arsenal is slightly ahead of the Saints at -1.6 compared to -1.8.
Southampton have a much stronger record, and while they will likely regress down to the mid-table, they are still should have a strong chance to beat Arsenal given the Gunner’s current form. At over 2-1 this is a difficult betting opportunity to pass up.
Leicester vs. Everton
Leicester to Win +115
Leicester are 8-0-4 this season, putting them in 3rd place in the table and giving them a 66% win rate so far on the young season. So far the Blue Foxes are performing even better than they did last season when they went 18-8-12 and finished in 5th place with a 47.4% win rate.
Everton are coming off a mediocre season at 13-10-15 but they are performing slightly better this season at 6-2-4, good enough for 7th place. However, Everton are 2-1-4 in their last 7 matches, so they may be trending back down towards closer to where they finished the year last season.
With Leicester winning games at an over 60% clip and with Everton likely being stuck somewhere in the mid-table, the Blue Foxes at +115 provides some potential betting value.
Fulham vs. Brighton
Brighton to Win +155
This is an interesting matchup as both teams are towards the bottom of the table and appear to be heading towards a relegation race. Fulham are 2-2-8 with a -10 goal difference and they don’t fair much better in expected goal difference, as their -5.3 is 17th in the league.
Brighton have had a bizarre season in terms of expected goal difference. They are 2-4-6 with a -6 goal differential, but they own a 4.0 expected goal difference, which is the 7th highest expected goal difference in the league. Brighton has also put in some masterful performances, including a 1-1 draw to Liverpool, where they outshot them 11-6 for the game and outshot 3-2 on shots on target.
Brighton are not a great team but their luck will probably begin to turn at least somewhat in the near future. They are a better team than Fulham and should have a good chance to win this game.
