DraftKings EPL Daily Fantasy Soccer Helper for 12/5/20
We’ve got a three game slate on Saturday, with each game featuring a team in the Champions League. Here are those games, with odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook:
|Manchester City (-950)||+1000||Fulham (+2300)|
|West Ham (+270)||+260||Manchester United (+100)|
|Chelsea (-195)||+340||Leeds (+500)|
Forwards to Target
Gabriel Jesus ($9,300): Jesus has been healthy enough to make only four appearances in the Premier League this season. He’s done decently in those four games, scoring two goals. Those injuries have kept his salary down, as $9,300 is a good value for someone in his situation on Saturday. Manchester City host Fulham, and they are massive favorites. Fulham are just above the relegation zone and have conceded the most goals in the league (19). Jesus has the best goal scoring odds on the slate besides Sergio Agüero, who is unlikely to play. Jesus a player who likes to shoot, as he averaged slightly more than four shots per 90 minutes last season, according to Rotowire. This gives him a nice floor and makes him usable in all formats this week.
Timo Werner ($7,800): Werner hasn't set the world on fire since his move to Chelsea, but he has been decent with four goals in 10 Premier League games. He's also added three goals in five Champions League games, so he's adjusting to life at his new club fairly nicely. He has yet to hit the heights that we saw him reach in the Bundesliga, but he could be on his way to doing so this week. Chelsea are at home against Leeds United, and they are pretty sizable favorites. Leeds have been a newly-promoted club that likes to attack rather than trying to grind out results, which has made for good fantasy environments. Leeds has given up the fifth most goals in the league and the fifth most shots per game. Werner is a favorite to score in this game, with his odds currently sitting at -130. Those are good odds for someone at this salary, and Werner is a good tournament pick as a player who can score multiple goals.
Rodrigo ($4,600): Rodrigo is the value forward you might need if you want to roster some high-salaried players at other positions. He has not been great since joining Leeds and doesn't have a long track record of being a goalscorer for a forward, but you might be able to get away with it at this salary. When he's been on the field, his rates have been solid, averaging a touch more than four shots and two chances created per 90 minutes. If he can do anything like that, he's a good punt for a low salary in a game that could be open.
Midfielders to Target
Kevin De Bruyne ($10,500): When De Bruyne and Bruno Fernandes were last on the same slate, we preferred Bruno. This week, KDB is easily the choice. Just looking at the odds of the games, Manchester City are huge home favorites against Fulham, which swings things in De Bruyne's favor. He should be able to do his thing in this one. De Bruyne is tied for fifth in corner kicks in the Premier League, and that's with missing two starts. His per-90 rates are at the typically ridiculous level that we expect from him, with over three shots, three chances created and nearly seven crosses per game. Man City have had tougher matchups against the likes of Liverpool, Tottenham and Leicester City in which they struggled, but we saw what they can do against an overmatched opponent when they beat Burnley 5-0 last week. We could see a similar scoreline Saturday, and KDB should feast.
Bruno Fernandes ($10,200): If you can find a way to get both KDB and Bruno, it's probably a good way to go. These two midfielders have a floor/ceiling combination that is just unmatched by others on the slate. They both get set-piece work and score goals from penalties. Bruno's matchup is not nearly as good as De Bruyne's, but it's still one that he can do well in. United are facing a surprising West Ham side that has done better than most expected considering they almost got relegated last season. But the Hammers still have some areas in which they are struggling, such as possession. They have the ball just 42.5% of the time, the third worst rate in the league. The Hammers also allow 20 crosses per game, which is tied for the fourth most in the league. Fernandes can take advantage, and that should give him the floor we've come to expect. And if Manchester United get a penalty, he could produce a game close to De Bruyne's but likely at lower popularity in tournaments.
Mateusz Klich ($5,100): Klich has been a solid contributor for Leeds and has averaged 11 DraftKings points this season. He has done this by chipping in with a few goals and assists but also getting some set pieces. Last week, he took all the set pieces for Leeds. It seems like a leap of faith to expect that to continue, but Klich should at least have some role on them. For this salary, he doesn't need a monopoly of the set pieces to be a value for us.
Pablo Fornals ($3,700): Fornals is a decent punt play at midfield. There isn't much you can point to that inspires confidence in this pick, but for a player who has scored two goals and added two assists and also plays in the front three for West Ham, this salary is way too low. Your expectations shouldn't be too high when rostering him, but if it helps you jam in KDB and Bruno, he could be worth it.
Defenders to Target
Alex Telles ($5,700): Telles has carried over the fantasy production we saw from him at Porto to his new club, Manchester United. He has earned a share of corner kicks and is also adding crosses from open play. This has led to some great crossing numbers, with more than eight per 90 minutes in two Premier League games and more than nine per 90 in three Champions League outings. With the Chelsea full-backs looking like they won't take corner kicks anymore, Telles is the only high-salaried defender who will have set pieces. This makes him the best play at the top of the position.
Benjamin Mendy ($4,500): Mendy paid off last weekend, scoring a goal and adding four crosses. This was off the back of some performances that were really lacking, which kept his salary low. He's up to just $4,500 this week, so he's still a value. His attacking role seems to fluctuate based on how Man City's game is going, but if it's going anything like it did last week, Mendy is a great play for this salary and gets you exposure to the slate's big favorite.
Rúben Dias ($3,500): In these games in which Manchester City are huge home favorites, playing one of their center backs is a viable strategy. Dias should complete around 75 passes, which is good for 1.5 points. If they keep a clean sheet, that's another three points. If he adds some tackles, interceptions or fouls drawn, he could get up to seven points. It doesn't sound great, but on a slate where you're trying to jam in some guys with high salaries, he could make the rest of your lineup work.
Goalkeepers to Target
Ederson ($5,900): Ederson is the easy choice at goalkeeper if you are picking from the top shelf. He's kept a clean sheet in 33% of his Premier League games this season. Fulham have scored the fifth fewest goals in the league and are huge underdogs in this match. Ederson and Man City are -122 favorites to keep a clean sheet. The Brazilian checks a lot of the boxes.
Illan Meslier ($4,100): Meslier is a fine option if you're going with a low-salary goalkeeper. He's kept four clean sheets in the league this season in 10 games. Chelsea's attack has been dangerous, but they've been hit or miss, failing to score in three games. We've seen Leeds play competitive matches against big teams like Tottenham, Liverpool and Arsenal already this season, so while they are underdogs, it's not impossible that Leeds gets a win against the Blues.
Nicholas Vazquez is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Nicholas Vazquez also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username hbyanksman. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his/her personal views, he/she may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his/her personal account. The views expressed in his/her articles are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.