FanDuel Soccer: EPL DFS Helper for 12/5/20
|Fixture||Favorite||Over 2.5 Goals||Most Likely
|Fulham at Manchester City||Man City (-950)||-350||Aguero (-250)|
|Manchester United at West Ham||Man United (+105)||-128||Cavani (+150)|
|Leeds United at Chelsea||Chelsea (-195)||-190||Werner (-125)|
This slate revolves around Manchester City, who are monstrous -950 favorites at home versus Fulham. With City being -120 to keep a clean sheet and this match at -128 to go over 3.5 goals, City should do a lot of damage. It will likely be a slate where you'll need to hit on the right City players to have a chance. We can expect the vast majority of DFS lineups Saturday to have at least two City attackers, and while there's significant opportunity cost to using three City forwards/midfielders, you can make a case for it. After all, City are +135 to score four or more.
Man City boast five players who carry anytime goal odds of at least -115 -- Sergio Aguero ($20; -250), Gabriel Jesus ($19; -195), Raheem Sterling ($17; -185), Kevin De Bruyne ($23; -115), Riyad Mahrez ($20; -105). In addition to them, Ferran Torres ($16; +115) and Phil Foden ($15; +115) also have sweet goal odds. Any City player who starts in an attacking spot is well worth playing, and Aguero looks like a longshot to suit up, which could lead to Jesus starting up top.
De Bruyne has an unrivaled floor/ceiling combination due to his ability to create chances paired with his set-piece work, which includes penalty duties. He's a great play and will be immensely popular. As for the rest of City's attackers, you can make a strong case for any of them. I lean toward Sterling as his lack of goal-scoring this year (just two goals in seven EPL starts) could keep his draft percentage in check.
After City, Chelsea are the next best spot to look. The Blues are -195 home favorites over a Leeds United side that has conceded 17 goals, tied for the third-most in the league, and is second-worst in expected goals allowed (16.8), per FBRef.
Timo Werner ($21; -125) has the best goal odds on Chelsea and looks to be the Blues' first-choice penalty taker, cashing all three of his spot kicks in UCL play. That's a big boost to his DFS outlook. In a match that will likely be an up-and-down affair -- like most Leeds games -- Werner's pace should come in handy. Olivier Giroud ($12; +100) could get another start after his four-goal outburst Wednesday in Seville, and he'll be easy to love at his salary if he does start. Hakim Ziyech ($17; +190) and Kai Havertz ($15; +175) hold solid goal odds, too.
The Manchester United-West Ham matchup is a tough one to call, especially with United traveling to London fresh off a draining Wednesday night UCL loss to PSG. FanDuel Sportsbook has installed the Red Devils as a marginal +105 favorite.
For United, Edinson Cavani ($17; +150) looks to be entrenching himself in a number-nine role, and he has the match's top goal odds. Bruno Fernandes ($22; +155) is always worth consideration due to his all-around abilities. Given the matchup with West Ham and Bruno's lofty salary, he might not see his usual high draft percentage. And don't sleep on Mason Greenwood ($14; +195). The youngster may get the nod over Marcus Rashford ($19; +155), who had to come off early versus PSG due to a shoulder injury.
On the Hammers' side, Michail Antonio won't play, but Sebastien Haller ($15; +200) and Jarrod Bowen ($15; +250) profile as fun GPP options. Neither is likely to be popular. While the matchup is difficult as Manchester United are fifth-best in expected goals allowed (11.2), Haller scored in place of Antonio two matches ago, and Bowen has a team-best four goals and gets some set-piece work.
Added time -- Leeds players aren't going to attract much attention, and the matchup against an improved Chelsea defense isn't easy. But Leeds have generated chances all season long, currently sitting second in expected goals (17.8). Patrick Bamford ($17) is the lone Leeds player with more than two EPL goals, scoring seven in 10 starts. ... If you want to get weird, you can gamble on Aleksandar Mitrovic ($15; 220) at City. He'll likely be stranded on his own up top, but the goal odds aren't terrible.
The best ceilings belong to Joao Cancelo ($15; +550) and Ben Chilwell ($15; +700), and they're priced as such as the highest-salaried defenders.
Cancelo is averaging 21.2 FanDuel points per game and has created 15 total chances across his five EPL starts. Despite all those chances resulting in only one assist, he's still produced at least 17.2 FanDuel points in every start, and the assists should come eventually. Cancelo is a great piece for any City stacks.
Chilwell has flashed a huge ceiling in his first campaign with Chelsea, posting outings of 46.2, 43.8 and 31.8 FanDuel points. He does have two games of 8.9 FanDuel points or fewer, but if you hit on one of his upside games, he can be a difference-maker. His three big games came against Southampton, Sheffield United and Crystal Palace. The Saints aren't a bad defense, but the Blades and Eagles rank among the league's worst in expected goals allowed -- just like Leeds does.
Leeds' defenders have been useful in DFS this season, with Luke Ayling ($12), Liam Cooper ($11) and Robin Koch ($10) all averaging between 12.9 and 13.5 FanDuel points per game. They should be active against Chelsea.
Fulham give us only one low-salary expected starter, and that's Joachim Andersen ($7). He's gone for at least 11.7 FanDuel points in three of his four outings and will have a decent floor as Fulham will be under siege at the Etihad. Teammate Tosin Adarabioyo ($11) racked up 23.4 FanDuel points from purely defensive actions last time out at Leicester.
Added time -- Alex Telles ($13; +750) has shown some attacking upside for United and won't be a popular target. ... Reece James ($12) is a way to get a piece of the Blues without spending too much coin. He's averaging 16.1 FanDuel points per game and created a trio of chances against Tottenham last weekend.
The best win odds (-950) and clean-sheet odds (-120) belong to Ederson ($14). No other keeper is better than +158 to keep a clean sheet. In an unexpected turn of events, City are the league's best defense by expected goals allowed (9.6) while ranking just eighth in expected goals scored. City have kept a clean sheet in six of their last eight matches in all competitions, with only Liverpool and Tottenham breaching their defense. As you know, Fulham are not the level of Liverpool and Spurs.
The negatives with Ederson are that using him means you can roster only three City outfield players, and he'll likely have almost no save volume to fall back on in the event he does concede. But I'll prioritize getting the Brazilian in my lineups. The win and clean-sheet odds are just too good compared to the rest of the slate's keepers.
Edouard Mendy ($13) is a fun GPP option who shouldn't be in a bunch of lineups -- most people who have the money to get to him will likely find an extra $1 for Ederson. But Chelsea have nice win odds (-195), and at +158 to keep Leeds off the scoreboard, Mendy has the second-best clean-sheet odds. Mendy's impact on the Blues can't be overstated as Chelsea have conceded just two goals over their last 10 matches in all competitions. Leeds are good enough in attack to keep Mendy busy, so he shouldn't produce a total dud even if Leeds score.
Added time -- After those two, it gets dicey. At only -128 to go over 2.5 goals, the United-West Ham clash is expected to be the lowest-scoring match on the slate. You can take a stab at either David de Gea ($12) or Lukasz Fabianski ($9) if you want. DDG has the better clean-sheet odds, but they're just +205. If you're not using any United attackers, you can play on that and throw a dart at Fabianski.