FanDuel Soccer: Champions League DFS Helper for 11/24/20
The Champions League, the best soccer competition on the planet, rolls on, and FanDuel is offering plenty of contests for Tuesday's and Wednesday's group stage matches. This article will focus on the main Tuesday slate, which starts at 3 p.m. EST.
|Group Stage - 4th Game|
|Tuesday, November 24th|
|Ferencvaros at Juventus|
|Basaksehir at Manchester United|
|RB Leipzig at PSG|
|Barcelona at Dynamo Kyiv|
|Zenit St. Petersburg at Lazio|
|Club Brugge at Dortmund|
Per FanDuel Sportsbook, Juventus (-1150) is the slate's biggest favorite, with Manchester United (-450) in second. Dortmund (-380), Barcelona (-230), and PSG (-170) slot in behind United, with Lazio (-135) rounding out the slate at home against Zenit. From an odds perspective, Juventus is the clear target on this slate. There is a plethora of talent available at the high end of the salary range, but Juventus stand above the rest with their massive implied win probability of 92% at home against Ferencvaros. With several other elite sides in action and in good situations, Juventus' popularity will likely be less than it should be given their outlook.
One major note for this slate is the absence of Lionel Messi ($25), who did not travel with the team to Tuesday's match because he is being rested. Messi's absence should result in Antoine Griezmann ($16) getting the start up top. If he does, he will likely be one of the most popular plays on the slate, as his salary provides excellent value from his projected role at the center of Barcelona's attack in a great matchup. Griezmann has been hit or miss in his recent fixtures, producing FanDuel point totals of 7.6, 46.6, 6.3, 27.8, and 6.9, and would be worth fading for large-field tournaments.
Here are some players to target at various salary ranges.
Cristiano Ronaldo and Alvaro Morata, Juventus ($21 and $20) -- There is little need to overthink this one -- Juventus' attackers check all the right boxes on this slate. Ronaldo has FanDuel point totals of 51.6, 38.2, 23.0, and 40.0 over his last four games, and he has scored less than 38 FanDuel points in just one of his six appearances this season. Facing a Ferencvaros side that has conceded 11 goals over their first three UCL fixtures, including four to Juventus earlier this month, Ronaldo has the highest ceiling on the slate, and his salary is very reasonable for his outlook. Morata could be rested for Pablo Dybala ($15) in this one, but if he isn't, he checks all the same boxes as Ronaldo. He has only failed to score double-digit FanDuel points in one of his nine appearances this season and has scored four goals in his three UCL matches thus far, including two in the reverse fixture at the start of the month. Anyone wearing a Juventus kit is in an excellent position on Tuesday.
Erling Haaland and Gio Reyna, Dortmund ($23 and $11) -- After Juventus, the odds favor Manchester United next, but their current form has not inspired much confidence. Dortmund appears to be a much more confident side at the moment, having won five of their last six matches, with their one loss coming in a narrow defeat to Bayern Munich. Haaland has been flawless so far this season, scoring double-digit FanDuel points in all 10 of his appearances and scoring a goal in all but two of them. He has seven goals across his last three games, including four in Saturday's Bundesliga victory. Brugge have yet to keep a clean sheet in the Group Stages and have only kept 4 through 14 fixtures in the Belgium Pro League, which sets Haaland up for a potential eruption spot. Reyna's low salary offers exposure to Dortmund at an excellent value. If Dortmund opts to stick with the 3-4-3 formation they rolled out on Saturday, Reyna could operate as a winger alongside Haaland. Jadon Sancho ($19) would be in a similar spot on the other side of the formation but is far more expensive than Reyna. Outside of Juventus, Dortmund offers the most upside on the slate despite having the third-best odds.
Luis Alberto, Lazio ($13) -- Lazio is working their way back from a disruptive spell caused by COVID-19 test results. They could be in for a tight match against Zenit on Tuesday, but Alberto's salary is simply too low for his role at the heart of Lazio's midfield. His near-complete ownership of corner kick duties gives him a high floor despite his limited goal-scoring prospects (just one so far this season). Zenit has been a much worse squad on the road this season, with just one win in their last six fixtures, compared to a six-win, one-loss record at home. They have yet to keep a clean sheet in the group stages, with five goals conceded thus far. These two sides tied in the reverse fixture, but Lazio was missing several key starters. Look for them to improve on that result on Tuesday and consider pairing Alberto with Ciro Immobile ($17).
Trincao, Barcelona ($9) -- Simply put, Barcelona is in a difficult situation on Tuesday despite a projected easy matchup. They will be without Messi, Frenkie de Jong, and Gerard Pique in addition to Ansu Fati, Sergio Busquets, and Sergio Roberto. Ousmane Dembele could miss out as well after spraining his shoulder during this weekend's loss to Atletico Madrid, and Samuel Umtiti remains out. They will be forced to give minutes to some younger players, which should provide some excellent value. Trincao was slotted in at right attacking mid in his one other start this season. He has appeared in 10 of Barcelona's 11 matches this season, 9 as a substitute, and produced 10.6 FanDuel points in his one start, playing just 63 minutes. Cheap exposure to Barcelona's midfield is difficult to pass up, even with his limited history of production.
Oscar Mingueza, Barcelona ($5) -- Mingueza provides another opportunity to gain extremely cheap exposure to Barcelona. The Barcelona B team defender was promoted for Tuesday's fixture and could be given a start with all of Barcelona's injuries throughout their squad. His clean sheet odds aren't fantastic as Barcelona has kept just one opponent off the score sheet in their last seven fixtures, but for his salary, they are excellent, and his inclusion in lineups frees up salary to include numerous midfielders and forwards from the top end of the salary range.
Alex Telles, Manchester United ($14) -- Telles made his second start of the season on Saturday, contributing seven crosses and two shots in United's one-goal victory over West Ham. Telles operates extremely high up the pitch and is consistently involved in the attack. While it's not a safe assumption that United can dominate Basaksehir after failing to do so earlier this month, they are a decent bet to control the game at home and provide Telles with numerous chances to move forward. United's stars forwards are expensive given their risk relative to options on Dortmund and Juventus, but their attacking defenders offer exposure to the second-largest favorite on the slate with far less opportunity cost.
Angelino, RB Leipzig ($15) -- Angelino deserves consideration in every slate he's on. He is a consistent producer at the high end of the defender salary range, with FanDuel point totals of 19.9, 30.8, and 26.8 in his last three matches and an absurd average of 23.5 FanDuel points per game across 11 fixtures in all competitions this season. He produced 26.8 FanDuel points in the reverse fixture three weeks ago, netting an assist, and capitalizes on opportunities to produce points on both ends of the pitch. Despite his consistent production, he could go slightly overlooked due to the matchup with PSG. Lazio's Francesco Acerbi ($15) offers a solid alternative at the same salary, but it's difficult to fade Angelino if paying up at defender.
Dean Henderson, Manchester United ($12) -- Henderson is expected to receive a second Champions League start on Tuesday despite the terrible outcome of the reverse fixture earlier in the month. Henderson and United's defense inspire little confidence, but the fact remains that they are the second-largest favorite on the slate, playing at home, and will likely be overlooked. United has produced stellar defensive results at times, most notable holding PSG to one goal and keeping clean sheets against Chelsea and RB Leipzig. Their home form has been dreadful, but they conceded just one goal over their last three fixtures at Old Trafford. Henderson will be a forgotten man at his elevated salary coming off a -2 FanDuel point performance, but his outlook is good, and he makes for a good large-field tournament play on Tuesday.