Premier League Betting Guide for Matchweek 9
Which Premier League matches offer betting value on Soccer odd? Let's see where we can zero in.
Please note that lines are subject to change after this article is published, which impacts betting advice. All betting lines were taken from FanDuel Sportsbook, and you can check here to see their most updated numbers. You can also look at our oddsFire tool to get a feel for what the betting public is doing.
Aston Villa vs. Brighton
Brighton to win +220
Brighton are lagging way behind Aston Villa in the table, as Villa are 10 spots ahead, but Brighton is actually tied with them on expected goal difference, per FBRef. Brighton has not been rewarded for their play this year at 1W-3D-4L but their expected goal difference is +2.2, suggesting their luck may begin to turn soon if they maintain their current performances.
In their last match against Burnley, Brighton had 19 shots to Burnley’s 4 but couldn’t find the back of the net in a 0-0 draw. These types of performances have haunted Brighton all year long, but their fortune should turn at some point.
Despite the gap in the standings, this appears to be an evenly matched game, so the opportunity to grab Brighton at +220 to win is quite enticing.
Tottenham vs. Manchester City
Tottenham to win +300
Tottenham have started the year strongly with a 5-2-1 record and a +10 goal differential. This puts them ahead of City in the standings, as City are a mediocre 3-3-1 with a +1 goal difference.
Manchester City had tons of hype, coming into the year as preseason favorites, but they have yet to perform up to expectations this campaign. City remain favorites based on this reputation, but they do not deserve to be based on how they’ve played to start the year.
Tottenham are ahead of City by 5 points, 9 goals and 4.7 expected goals. Spurs to win at a line of +300 is a good bet.
Sheffield United vs. West Ham
West Ham to win +140
West Ham are off to a 3-2-3 start to the season, and they are probably right where they belong -- in the middle of the table. They own a +4 goal difference and +1.1 expected goal difference, sitting in the top half of the table in both categories, so they may even have a little bit of room to move up as the season progresses.
Sheffield United, on the other hand, have been terrible this season, and their 0-1-7 record is good enough to put them last place. After a pretty nice year last season, the Blades have cratered so far in 2020-21.
West Ham are clearly the better team right now and should be able to win this game, so getting them at +140 to win is an appealing number.
