FanDuel Soccer: Champions League DFS Helper for 10/28/20
|Barcelona at Juventus||Barcelona (+130)||-120||Messi (-115)|
|Zenit at Dortmund||Dortmund (-280)||-220||Haaland (-195)|
|Lazio at Club Brugge||Brugge (-125)||-122||Okereke (+155)|
|RB Leipzig at Manchester United||United (+130)||-128||Martial (+165)|
|Rennes at Sevilla||Sevilla (-195)||+100||Ocampos (+125)|
|Dynamo Kyiv at Ferencvaros||Dynamo (+130)||+110||Supriaha (+200)|
Dortmund have the most upside on this slate and are the largest favorite (-280) for their home match with Zenit, a match that has the best odds (-220) of going over 2.5 goals. Per a study I did on stacking last spring, we want to stack teams with implied win odds of at least 70%. At -280, Dortmund's implied win probability is 73.7%, and we can load up on them, especially since they lost their opening group match and really need to perform well in this one.
Erling Haaland ($19; -195) has the slate's best goal odds, and I'm not sure why he's only $19. Haaland netted a goal with three shots on target and two chances created on his way to 37.4 FanDuel points in his first UCL match of the season. Haaland bagged 13 goals with two assists in 15 matches (11 starts) in a half-season with Dortmund a year ago. He's also taken their lone penalty this campaign, something that wasn't on his plate last year.
Dortmund are more than just Haaland, though, so you have options if you want to fade the inevitable Haaland chalk. Jadon Sancho ($18; +105) and Marco Reus ($15; +105) have top-five goal odds on the slate. Reus is a great stacking piece alongside Sancho or Haaland if he starts in a number-10 role, as WhoScored predicts. Giovanni Reyna ($12; +270) has started every BVB league match this season and is a superb point-per-dollar play.
I won't be stacking anyone outside of Dortmund. That's not to say there aren't high-upside players out there. I mean, Lionel Messi ($23; -110) is in the player pool.
Messi is Messi. He can do everything. His ability to score goals, create chances and rack up assists -- along with his duties on penalties, free kicks, and corners -- gives him a gaudy floor and massive upside. There are some negatives, though. He'll be popular, and neither he nor Barcelona have been in great form so far this year. Oh, and the matchup with Juventus isn't an easy one, either. I'm usually OK swallowing Messi chalk because of his unrivaled floor, but I'm not as cool with it on this slate. And the absence of Cristiano Ronaldo decreases the odds that this turns into a high-scoring affair (it was -135 to go over 2.5 goals before Ronaldo was ruled out).
After Messi and Dortmund, draft percentages should be pretty spread out.
I don't mind Juve even sans Ronaldo. Barca have been pretty blah on the road for a while now, and they just conceded three goals at home to a Real Madrid side that had lost its way prior to El Clasico. Alvaro Morata ($20; +160) and Paulo Dybala ($16; +190) could get a goal. Dybala was the only player other than Ronaldo to take a pen for Juve last season.
Sevilla are the biggest non-BVB favorite as they're -195 at home versus Rennes. Lucas Ocampos ($14; +125) has the best goal-scoring odds on Sevilla and is projected to start as a winger, per WhoScored. Luuk de Jong ($18; +150) could start in a number-nine role and has two goals in two La Liga starts this season.
Bruno Fernandes ($19; +170) is a high-floor option with solid goal odds, but Manchester United have a difficult matchup with RB Leipzig. That match is -128 to see at least three goals, the second-best clip after Zenit-Dortmund. Marcus Rashford ($21; +170) has the same goal odds as Fernandes and could slip through the cracks with his salary up near Messi's.
Thomas Meunier ($13; +440) offers a significant attacking upside for Dortmund. In a match in which BVB should control possession, Meunier will likely get forward early and often. That's reflected in his +440 goal odds, which are really good for a defender. He doesn't have an assist yet this season but has made nine passes into the penalty area, per FBRref, and has been credited with four shot-creating actions. He's a good stacking partner for any BVB attacker.
On the flip side of that match, Zenit's back line will be busy, giving them all a high floor. Their four expected starters carry salaries of $12 or $13. Dejan Lovren ($13) and Yaroslav Rakitskiy ($12) are the likely center-backs. Lovren had 16.7 FanDuel points on solely defensive actions versus Club Brugge in Zenit's opening match. He could do something similar here.
Sevilla's Jesus Navas ($14; +650) has not-terrible goal odds and should be able to get forward with Sevilla a sizable home favorite versus Rennes.
Speaking of Rennes, they have two low-salary expected starters at full-back in Hamari Traore ($5) and Dalbert ($5). If they start, it'll be awfully tempting to use one as a punt play to free up salary for elsewhere.
Barcelona's Sergino Dest ($9) is a solid play. Dest gave a good account of himself against Real Madrid last weekend, and he should be tasked with more defensive chores than usual in Turin in addition to what he can do going forward.
Dortmund's Roman Burki ($14) and Sevilla's Bono ($13) are the guys to chase after for a win bonus.
Sevilla are -110 to keep a clean sheet while Dortmund are +134 to blank Zenit. Given their salaries, Bono makes a lot of sense, but if a majority of those who spend up at keeper opt for Bono, Burki could be a nice leverage play. After all, Dortmund have much better win odds, and goalie-attacker stacks are a really good stacking option, so you can pair him with one of Dortmund's high-upside attackers.
It's really tough to feel great about anyone after those two.
I'm intrigued by Lazio's Pepe Reina ($5) and Dynamo Kyiv's Denys Boyko ($5) at their salaries, especially Boyko as Dynamo are a +130 favorite versus Ferencvaros. Lazio, meanwhile, are +330 underdogs against Club Brugge. A favored goalie for $5 is real easy to like, and Boyko makes it a lot easier to jam in Messi alongside a Dortmund stack.