Premier League Betting Guide for Matchweek 6
Which Premier League matches offer betting value on FanDuel Sportsbook? Let's see where we can zero in.
Please note that lines are subject to change after this article is published, which impacts betting advice. All betting lines were taken from FanDuel Sportsbook, and you can check here to see their most updated numbers. You can also look at our oddsFire tool to get a feel for what the betting public is doing.
Brighton vs. West Brom
Brighton to win -140
Brighton-West Brom is an intriguing matchup, as both teams are toward the bottom of the table in points, with West Brom in 17th and Brighton in 16th. However, the advanced stats show that Brighton is off to an unlucky start to their season, while West Brom should probably be even lower in the table.
Despite being 16th in the table, Brighton are 6th in the league in FBref's expected goal difference, a whopping 10.1 expected goals ahead of West Brom only five games into the season. Last week Brighton outshot Crystal Palace 20-1 but drew the game 1-1 in what was an extreme example of how unlucky they have been at the start of the campaign.
Brighton’s luck has to turn at some point if they keep playing well. They are facing one of the weakest teams in the league, and they should be able to secure the full three points from this match.
Arsenal vs. Leicester
Leicester +1 (no push) -110
Arsenal are favorites against Leicester this weekend, but that is not necessarily deserved. Both teams have nine points from five matches so far this season, with Leicester leading the Gunners on both goal difference and expected goal difference.
Even dating back to last year, Leicester were better than Arsenal, finishing three spots ahead in the table. At worst, this should be considered an evenly matched game, so getting almost even odds of Leicester to draw or win is pretty enticing.
Aston Villa vs. Leeds
Aston Villa to win +120
Aston Villa are off to a bit of a shocking 4W-0D-0L start, and that perfect record includes a 7-2 win over Liverpool and a 1-0 victory versus Leicester. Villa are perhaps overachieving given that their expected goal difference is only +3.3, compared to an actual goal difference of +10, but they still deserve credit and respect for their hot start.
On the other side, Leeds look like a middling team at the moment, with a 2-1-2 record and a even goal differential. Leeds have conceded nine goals in just four games, and they have the second highest expected goals against in the league thus far.
Villa may not be stay this hot forever, but they are certainly showing that they are an improved outfit this season. We should expect Villa to beat a mediocre Leeds team.