FanDuel Soccer: EPL DFS Helper for 10/24/20
|Fixture||Favorite||Over 2.5 Goals||Most Likely
|Crystal Palace at Fulham||Palace (+170)||+124||Mitrovic (+135)|
|Chelsea at Manchester United||Man United (+145)||-160||Werner (+130)|
|Sheffield United at Liverpool||Liverpool (-410)||-210||Salah (-200)|
This slate revolves around Liverpool. The Reds are huge -410 home favorites versus Sheffield United, a side that is without a win this season despite two of its first five EPL games coming against newly-promoted teams.
With no other squad holding implied win odds better than 40.8%, Liverpool are going to be extremely popular, and they should be. That starts with Mohamed Salah ($22; -210 goal odds), who carries the best anytime goal odds on the slate. He's got six goals in five league matches, taking 22 total shots (10 on target). He is on penalties and has a monster ceiling in this matchup.
Sadio Mane ($21; -145) and Roberto Firmino ($16; -140) are superb plays, too. Mane will be a chalk pick, while Firmino could fly under the radar. A better real-life player than he is a DFS asset, the Brazilian hasn't scored yet this season, but he's got two assists and has 1.4 expected goals, per FBRef, so he's due to open his account. All of Liverpool's front three were subbed off midweek at Ajax, so they should be ready to rock on Saturday.
You can try to dodge some chalk while still getting exposure to Liverpool via their midfield, with Naby Keita ($7; +380) a good play if he starts.
The other two matches are toss-ups. I'd imagine the masses load up on Reds and then pluck one or two attackers from the Chelsea-United clash. That match is -160 to go over 2.5 goals, so it should have more fantasy goodness than the Palace-Fulham fixture, which is +124 to see at least three goals.
Chelsea's defense has been about as bad as most were expecting it to be. The Blues have shipped nine goals in five league matches, conceding three apiece to West Ham and Southampton. Only one of Chelsea's EPL matches has seen fewer than four total goals. They're kind of Liverpool of a few years back, and their matches are glorious for fantasy.
Bruno Fernandes ($19; +165) and Marcus Rashford ($20; +165) have the top goal odds for United. Fernandes has the best floor on the slate thanks to his play-making ability as well as his set-piece duties, which includes pens. Fernandes has put up at least 22 FanDuel points in each of his four games this season, with blow-up contests of 42.1 and 66.7 FanDuel points.
For the Blues, Timo Werner ($21; +130) has the best goal odds for either side of this one, and he's coming off his finest performance in a Chelsea shirt as he netted two goals with an assist on his way to 50.0 FanDuel points last weekend. In what could be an open affair, Christian Pulisic ($17; +220) could have his first big outing of the season after being quiet in his first two league starts.
Added time -- It's hard to outright fade any match on a three-game slate, but I might do it with Fulham-Palace. If I go here, it'll be for Aleksandar Mitrovic ($17; +135) or Wilfried Zaha ($18; +230). Both figure to see a low roster percentage and are more than capable of scoring, especially Mitrovic, who has some juicy goal odds.
Trent Alexander-Arnold ($14) and Andrew Robertson ($15) are good stacking pieces to pair with Liverpool attackers. Both should be heavily involved against what's likely to be a packed-in Blades side.
Trent -- who is +500 to score -- hasn't been in his usual form this year, but he's still produced at least 11.2 FanDuel points in every match. His free-kick and corner work gives him through-the-roof upside. Robertson was great midweek at Ajax and has gone for 19.9, 17.5 and 32.5 FanDuel points in his past three EPL games.
Alex Telles ($12) is a solid (for a defender) +600 to score and played in some delightful balls Wednesday at PSG, racking up eight crosses. While the former Porto full-back has yet to make an appearance in league play, Telles can get points at both ends of the pitch versus Chelsea if he starts.
I'll definitely go to Sheffield United for at least one low-salary, high-floor play at defender. George Baldock ($9) and Enda Stevens ($8) are listed as probable starters. Stevens has scored at least 9.1 FanDuel points -- all from defensive actions -- in four straight games.
Added time -- Patrick Van Aanholt ($10) could make his return to the Palace lineup on Saturday. If he does, it'll be at a much lower salary than what he usually carries. He has totaled three goals and two assists in each of the past two campaigns. ... Also for Palace, Gary Cahill ($5) returned from injury last matchweek and is easy to like at this salary.
What a funky goalie slate this is.
As the keeper for the slate's biggest favorite, Adrian ($14) is a strong play, and while he's been iffy at times for the Reds, he played well in Amsterdam midweek. The problem with him is that he's a backup-level goalie playing behind a backline that's now weakened sans Virgil van Dijk. Liverpool, however, are -105 to keep a clean sheet, and Adrian's win odds are far and away the best on this slate.
The Palace-Fulham matchup is a fine place to go goalie hunting. Vicente Guaita ($10) has the slate's second-best clean-sheet odds (+192), while the third-best clean-sheet chances (+200) belong to Alphonse Areola ($9). If I go away from Adrian, I'll likely use one of these two.
Added time -- Edouard Mendy ($8) has kept a clean sheet in each of his two Chelsea starts, including versus Sevilla on Wednesday. He will likely be busy at Old Trafford, though he's an underdog with terrible clean-sheet odds (+330). ... Man United have permitted the second-most goals so far this season after giving up the third-fewest a campaign ago, making David de Gea ($11) a tough sell unless you're stacking the Red Devils.