FanDuel Soccer: Champions League DFS Helper for 10/21/20
|Liverpool at Ajax||Liverpool (-140)||-250||Salah (-155)|
|Porto at Manchester City||Man City (-360)||-270||Aguero (-220)|
|Atalanta at Midtjylland||Atalanta (-190)||-230||Zapata (-150)|
|Atletico Madrid at Bayern Munich||Bayern (-200)||-160||Lewandowski (-210)|
|Marseille at Olympiacos||Olympiacos (+135)||+122||El-Arabi (+185)|
|Mönchengladbach at Inter||Inter (-165)||-154||Lukaku (-125)|
We should see a lot of goals on Wednesday as five of the six games are at least -154 to go over 2.5 goals. We have no shortage of appealing options.
Per a study I did on stacking last spring, we want to stack teams with implied win odds of at least 70%. Manchester City are the only side that fits the bill on this slate. Not only are City the biggest favorite (-360), they're in the match with the best odds to see at least three goals (-270).
Sergio Aguero ($20; -220 anytime goal odds) has the top goal odds on the slate and should be ready to roll after making his return from injury last weekend. Raheem Sterling ($21; -115), Phil Foden ($16; +145) and Riyad Mahrez ($19; +145) are all worth a long look, too. With Kevin De Bruyne out, Mahrez will get some set-piece work, and Aguero could be on pens.
Bayern Munich (-200) are the second-biggest favorite for their home date with Atletico Madrid. Atleti is Atleti, so I don't think it will surprise anyone if this winds up being a low-scoring affair. With that said, it's -160 to go over 2.5 goals. I'll likely just dip my toes in the water here, however, and I think you can justify fading this match entirely given how many other juicy spots there are. Robert Lewandowski ($23; -210) has outstanding goal odds but will be a chalk play, as always. I like the idea of pivoting to either Kingsley Coman ($14; +220) or Thomas Muller ($18; +175) if I use a Bayern attacker.
Instead of going big on Bayern, I prefer looking toward Liverpool (-140) and Atalanta (-190) -- both of whom are sizable favorites in matches that should be full of fantasy goodness.
Atalanta were a free-flowing side a campaign ago, and they've continued that into this season. Through four Serie A games, they've netted 14 goals and conceded nine. Papu Gomez ($20; +155) offers a good floor with a big-time ceiling, and he's already totaled four goals and two assists in league play. He might be my favorite play on the slate. Duvan Zapata ($19; -150) has the best goal odds on Atalanta, and Mario Pasalic ($16; +190) isn't a bad bet for a goal or an assist.
Without Alisson and Virgil Van Dijk, Liverpool may look a lot like the Liverpool of a few years back, when they struggled on defense and had to be ultra-aggressive in attack. That makes them more fun for fantasy, and the match with Ajax could be wide open. Mohamed Salah ($22; -155) is on fire, scoring six times in five EPL matches. He'll be on penalties for the Reds. Sadio Mane ($21; -115) and Roberto Firmino ($16; -110) also have good goal odds. Firmino could go under-rostered since he hasn't yet scored in league play.
I really like Inter's Romelu Lukaku ($20; -125) and Lautaro Martinez (18; +105) as leverage plays on this slate. With so many top teams in money spots, these two profile as contrarian plays worth being overweight on -- though I wouldn't stack them. Lukaku has four goals through four Serie A matches and is averaging 1.08 goals per 90 minutes. He ended last league season with 23 goals. Martinez has three goals this season and has taken 13 total shots. Mönchengladbach gave up three goals to Dortmund in their lone match this season versus a top-level foe.
Added time -- With Liverpool weakened at the back, Ajax's Dusan Tadic ($18; +185) makes a lot of sense in a game that should see goals. He's registered three goals and two assists in five Eredivisie matches. ... Joao Felix ($16; +360) may be able to exploit Bayern's high line better than an aging Luis Suarez ($18; +185) can, although Suarez has started well at Atleti.
Hans Hateboer ($15; +490) and Robin Gosens ($12; +500) are money plays at defender for Atlanta. In La Dea's three-at-the-back system, these two are wing-backs who have tons of freedom to get forward. Gosens has a goal and two assists already this year while Hateboer has two goals. At just $12, Gosens is one of the better point-per-dollar options on the slate. If I stack anyone other than City, it'll be Atalanta, and I'll pair one of these two with Gomez or Zupata.
Joao Cancelo ($11; +700) had one of his better games for City last weekend versus Arsenal as Pep Guardiola deployed him as a winger/full-back/midfielder. In a match in which City should see a lot of the ball, Cancelo will have chances to get forward early and often, and the goal odds aren't bad for a defender.
A route I want to take on this slate is to go with at least one low-salary defender to save some cash for attackers. Porto, Atleti, and Midtjylland are good places to look for high-floor defenders. The backlines for all three of those sides should be busy. Zaidu Sanusi ($10) and Wilson Manafa ($11) are listed as expected starters for Porto. For Midtjylland, Erik Sviatchenko ($6) and Joel Andersson ($5) are marked as probable starters.
Added time -- Trent Alexander-Arnold ($15; +600) and Andrew Robertson ($14; +900) are good plays, per usual. Trent's duties on corners and free kicks give him a floor/ceiling combination that is rare for a defender.
Ederson ($14) and Manuel Neuer ($14) are very similar. Both of them have really good win odds, but their teams have been shipping goals at a high rate early on this year. Both are +130 to keep a clean sheet, so if you have the cash, you can make a strong case for either.
Inter are +148 to keep a clean sheet, and the win odds (-165) are pretty nice, putting Samir Handanović ($11) in play. He's yet to keep a clean sheet this season, though, and has given up more than one goal in three of four outings. Atalanta's Marco Sportiello ($5) is cut from a similar cloth, holding good win odds but allowing nine goals through four matches. The salary is awfully enticing, though, and allows you to pack in high-salary attackers.
Added time -- The Olympiacos-Marseille match isn't a bad place to look for a keeper as it's only +122 to go over 2.5 goals. Olympiacos have better clean-sheet odds (+170), so Jose Sa ($12) has the edge over Steve Mandanda ($8).