Premier League Betting Guide for Matchweek 2
Which Premier League matches offer betting value on FanDuel Sportsbook? Let's see where we can zero in.
Please note that lines are subject to change after this article is published, which impacts betting advice. All betting lines were taken from FanDuel Sportsbook, and you can check here to see their most updated numbers. You can also look at our oddsFire tool to get a feel for what the betting public is doing.
Leeds vs. Fulham
Fulham +1 (no push) +135
Leeds did look better than Fulham in their opening matches, as Fulham fell 3-0 to Arsenal while Leeds lost a heartbreaking 4-3 match against Liverpool. However, Leeds were outshot 22-6 in their match with Liverpool, so the scoreline flattered The Whites. In fact, going by FBRef's expected goals, Leeds were throttled 3.3-0.6.
Leeds and Fulham were both in the Championship last season, and Leeds finished 12 points above Fulham over a 46-game season. Fulham were 23W-12D-11L, giving them a 76.1% win/draw rate, while Leeds won 60.1% of their league games.
The implied odds of a Fulham win/draw are 42.6% based on the +135 odds, which is over 30 percentage points below their win/draw rate from last season. Obviously, the promotion will give Fulham a new challenge this season, but with Leeds being newly promoted, as well, there is no reason for Fulham to be this large of an underdog. Fulham split their two matches against Leeds last year and can win or draw here.
Chelsea vs. Liverpool
Liverpool to win +120
Liverpool are coming off a historic season in which they went 32-3-3, winning 84.2% of their games. While Chelsea are a strong side that finished fourth in the table last season, they lost both league games to Liverpool last year, and the Reds are returning all of their key players.
Liverpool struggled to pull out a win against Leeds, and they needed an 88th-minute penalty to do so, while Chelsea had a relatively routine 3-1 victory at Brighton in their league opener.
However, like we mentioned above, Liverpool outshot Leeds 22-6 in their match and should have won by a safe margin, per expected goals. On the flip side, Chelsea -- with all their new signings -- were actually outshot 13-10 by Brighton, and expected goals had Brighton winning 1.3-1.2.
Liverpool were the runaway champs last season, and they got off to a good start this campaign despite the unconvincing scoreline. They should be larger favorites against Chelsea this weekend.
Aston Villa vs. Sheffield United
Sheffield United to win +170
Sheffield United had a strong season last year, finishing 14-12-12, which was good enough for ninth place -- eight spots ahead of Aston Villa. Sheffield finished 19 points ahead of Villa last season, and their goal difference was 26 goals higher, so by no means was this separation a fluke.
Sheffield won just 14 league games last season, but they did go 4-4-0 against the bottom-four teams in the league, so they mostly took care of business when they needed to. Villa finished 17th last season and will likely be in a relegation fight again in 2020-21, so this should be a game Sheffield does well in.
At +170 you can get great odds on the Blades.